Wednesday, December 10, 2014

What's Putin Doing in Delhi?


No shadow of Putin's India visit on Obama trip: US




No shadow of Putin's India visit on Obama trip: US
Obama is the chief guest on Republic Day.

WASHINGTON: The US says "now is not the time for business as usual with Russia" but insists Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming India visit would not cast a shadow on US President Barack Obama's own trip in January.

"Let's wait and see what comes from the visit," US State Department spokesperson Marie Harf told reporters Friday when asked about reports that a number of trade agreements on oil and gas as also a nuclear site may be signed during Putin's India visit.

"I know there's a lot of rumours, often of trade deals or economic deals, but let's see what's actually put into practice here," she said.

But "as we've said before, now is not the time for business as usual with Russia," Harf said. "We've conveyed this certainly to our allies and to our partners across the world."

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However, Harf said, the Putin visit was not casting a shadow on Obama's visit to India in January at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to be the chief guest at India's Republic day.

"It's not, not at all," she said. "Broadly speaking, that's our position on doing business with Russia."

"But again, India is a very, very close partner. Let's see what comes out of the actual visit, but we're confident things will continue as they are."

When told that India has been a very close partner of the Soviet Union before, and now Russia, Harf said: "Well, it's possible to have good relationships with multiple countries even when we disagree on things."

"But again, it's not, to my knowledge, impacting any visits one way or the other," she said.

The US is watching the Putin visit to India, she said as "we watch a lot of things that go on around the world. I wouldn't express a large amount of concern, though."

Regarding US-India civil nuclear cooperation, Harf recalled that during Modi's September visit to the US, "both sides renewed their commitments to fully implement the US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, to find a way forward to allow US-origin reactors to eventually be built in India."

The two leaders also agreed in their joint statement to establish a contact group for advancing the implementation of civil nuclear energy cooperation, she noted.

It will address administrative issues, liability, technical issues, licensing, and other topics as required, Harf said. "So there's a path forward here for this to keep moving."

In reply to another question about India's dealings with Iran and Russia, the spokesperson said the US "certainly don't turn a blind eye to any action that could be sanctionable when it comes to sanctions on any country."

"That's certainly not true," she said. "We, in fact, have very vigorous sanctions enforcement and work very closely with our partners to ensure they can meet their obligations under international sanctions architectures."

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Sid Harth
But both Russian and Indian experts say they are dismayed by the brevity of Putin’s visit, and also by his inexplicable decision not to address an Indian joint session of parliament. Instead of that, Putin and Modi will attend the opening of the World Diamond Conference in New Delhi Thursday. “If Russia is serious about reaching out to non-Western countries, to compensate for its current bad relations with the US and Europe, it should walk extra miles to cement those relationships,” says Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. “Putin has been doing that with China,” Mr. Trenin says. “Many in Moscow seem to treat India like an afterthought, which is not wise with a country of that size and importance. Under Modi, India is re-evaluating its relationships, and seems ready to discard non-performing ones. The danger is that India may get fed up with old-style treatment from Moscow, and turn elsewhere.” Source: Christian Science Monitor …and I am Sid Harth
Sid Harth
Shared interests In a lengthy interview with a leading Indian news agency Tuesday, Putin described Russo-Indian ties as a “privileged strategic partnership” and dismissed Russia’s recent opening to Pakistan as a routine diplomatic move that’s in everyone’s interests. He argued that India and Russia share interests, especially as the NATO mission in Afghanistan winds down, in fighting terrorism and combating drug trafficking. He pledged to step up economic cooperation and – of greatest interest to Indian ears – joint ventures that would transfer Russian space, military, and engineering technology to India. Some Russian experts defend Putin’s apparent price concessions on oil and gas to new Asian partners as smart long-term policy. “Asia is growing fast, and Putin finds it possible to nail down lasting deals with these countries,” that are unlikely to be disrupted by future political disputes, says Felix Yurlov, an expert with the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. He says it’s about locking down market share, even as prices of hydrocarbons plummet and Russia’s relations sour with customers in the West.
Sid Harth
Putin’s visit, the 15th Russia-India summit on his watch, comes as the old cold war alliance between Moscow and New Delhi is fraying and two-way trade has shriveled to less than $10 billion. India, under the popular Mr. Modi, is diversifying its relations away from Russia and even purchasing arms from others, including Rafale fighters from France and Apache helicopter gunships from the United States. Moscow too has broken its long-term fidelity to New Delhi and has reportedly contracted to sell Mi-35 attack helicopters to India’s main foe, Pakistan. President Barack Obama will be guest of honor at India’s national Republic Day commemoration in January, and the Indian media are filled with optimistic commentary about the prospects for the long-neglected US-India relationship to take off. “The internal discourse in India today is all about development, development, development,” says Mr. Unikrishnan. “Putin needs to show that Russia can move beyond our traditional ties, and make real contributions to India’s forward economic movement. With Russia so far, it’s mostly same old.” But Russia – the leading supplier of arms to India – has lately moved from just delivering finished products to jointly developing new weapons such as the Brahmos cruise missile and the T-50 fifth generation fighter plane, Russia’s answer to the US F-22 and F-35. And among the business propositions on tap during Putin’s visit are: a multibillion dollar contract to build up to 25 nuclear reactors in India; a long-term deal to provide liquified natural gas at low prices; sales of civilian aircraft; granting India’s state petroleum corporation stakes in Russia’s potential Arctic oil bonanza; and what could be a breakthrough deal to provide uncut Russian diamonds to India – a major center of gem polishing.
Sid Harth
Putin-Modi Meet December 10, 2014 / elcidharth / 0 Comments / Edit World Europe Putin goes to India: Can he win over Modi? Vladimir Putin will be seeking to keep India’s Narendra Modi onside with cheap oil and diamond deals, as India diversifies its weapons purchases away from Russia. By Fred Weir, Correspondent December 10, 2014 Adnan Abidi/Reuters View Caption Moscow — Vladimir Putin will be hoping to demonstrate the irrelevance of Western sanctions as he arrives in India for a one-day summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that could see up to 20 large business deals inked. Mr. Putin will be looking for signals of political solidarity amid Russian economic woes that stem in part from those sanctions. Analysts suggest he’s likely to get what he wants – though he may have to pay for it in the form of discounted Russian oil, sweet deals on diamonds, and opening up Siberian oilfields to Indian investment. Economic concessions have factored in recent gas contracts announced on Putin visits to China and Turkey, and experts say the Indians are certain to press for advantages as well. “Of course India will provide gestures of political support to Putin, and it will be genuine. Russia‘s an old friend, and we sympathize with its problems,” says Nandan Unikrishnan, a Russia expert at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. India accepts Russia’s security interests in Ukraine, he says, and India itself briefly endured US-led sanctions in the wake of its 1998 nuclear weapon test, and rejects them as a tool of international policy. Recommended: How well do you know India? Take the quiz. But past allegiances and political affinities will not be enough, some Indian experts say. “The old Soviet friendship, though remembered with great fondness among Indians, needs to be replaced. India and Russia are very different countries from what they were 20 years ago. India is much more private sector and civil society than it used to be – and this sort of engagement is not Moscow‘s strength,” says Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, foreign editor of the Hindustan Times, a leading Indian daily.
Sid Harth
As a counterweight, foreign investor flows have surged to $42.4 billion this year, responding to economic reforms pledged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his election in May, as well as the RBI's efforts to cut inflation. The deficit is also being eased by falling oil prices, and Brent hit a five-year low on Monday. "With oil prices coming down, that will be a big benefit and easily offset the increase in gold imports," said Sonal Varma, an economist for Nomura in Mumbai. "Broadly, the current account is quite stable." RBI officials have said they are comfortable with the deficit at current levels, and it remains far off the record high of 4.8 percent of GDP it hit in 2012/13, helping spark the country's biggest market turmoil since its 1991 balance of payment crisis. Monday's data showed the balance of payments at a surplus of $6.9 billion during July-September, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of surplus though down from $11.2 billion in the prior quarter. Some analysts warned against complacency, citing the unpredictability of oil prices and prospects that gold imports will continue to surge. "I think (policymakers) should take it as an early sign of alarm," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of Bank of Baroda in Mumbai. (Reporting by Neha Dasgupta; Editing by Rafael Nam and John Stonestreet)
Sid Harth
Putin is a player. Modi is not. Putin has problems. Modi is a problem. Modi wants to play. Putin wants to win. Who do you think would win? Wronng. Nobody. Obama wants to steal the show. Obam's visit has been billed-in local media, as a grand gesture. Not so. Obama keeps his hidden agenda, guess where? Close to his vest-pocket. Almost at his worst in popularity, as a US president, Obama knows the risks in making any false moves, giving his Republican lobby one more reason to beat him and his party, Democrats, on what can be considered as, giving Modi, crown jewels. Disputes keeps Putin on the front pages of Europe. Disputes keep Obama in front pages of the world. Modi keeps breathing hard, just to keep alive. Modi has limited options. One being, how to please his Hindutva dogs from barking at a wrong tree. His public posture, says something else. No more 'chaiwalla,' from Vadgaum, Saurashtra, Gujarat but not yet a man at Delhi to make a difference. Smaller his stature, better for business, especially when foreign dignitaries come calling on him. Jingoism is a wrong posture. By now, Modi ought to know that what sells in India, has no demand in the world. His 'khaman-dhokla,' diplomacy did not work on Xi Jinping. It wouldn't work with Putin and Obama. What if Putin offers Modi natural Gas free and give diamonds at discount? Modi is bankrupt. Don't tell me he is not. India keeps current account gap in check despite easing of gold import curbs By Neha Dasgupta MUMBAI Mon Dec 8, 2014 9:51pm IST (Reuters) - India kept a lid on its current account deficit between July and September despite easing curbs on gold imports, data showed on Monday, thanks to a sharp increase in foreign investments and cheaper oil. The deficit reached $10.1 billion, or 2.1 percent of gross domestic product, compared with $5.2 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, a year earlier, the Reserve Bank of India data showed. Imports of gold - the second biggest burden on the trade balance after oil - accounted for most of that, nearly doubling to $7.6 billion from $3.9 billion, reflecting an easing of restrictions in May.

Sid Harth
As a counterweight, foreign investor flows have surged to $42.4 billion this year, responding to economic reforms pledged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his election in May, as well as the RBI's efforts to cut inflation. The deficit is also being eased by falling oil prices, and Brent hit a five-year low on Monday. "With oil prices coming down, that will be a big benefit and easily offset the increase in gold imports," said Sonal Varma, an economist for Nomura in Mumbai. "Broadly, the current account is quite stable." RBI officials have said they are comfortable with the deficit at current levels, and it remains far off the record high of 4.8 percent of GDP it hit in 2012/13, helping spark the country's biggest market turmoil since its 1991 balance of payment crisis. Monday's data showed the balance of payments at a surplus of $6.9 billion during July-September, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of surplus though down from $11.2 billion in the prior quarter. Some analysts warned against complacency, citing the unpredictability of oil prices and prospects that gold imports will continue to surge. "I think (policymakers) should take it as an early sign of alarm," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist of Bank of Baroda in Mumbai. (Reporting by Neha Dasgupta; Editing by Rafael Nam and John Stonestreet)
Sid Harth
Putin is a player. Modi is not. Putin has problems. Modi is a problem. Modi wants to play. Putin wants to win. Who do you think would win? Wronng. Nobody. Obama wants to steal the show. Obam's visit has been billed-in local media, as a grand gesture. Not so. Obama keeps his hidden agenda, guess where? Close to his vest-pocket. Almost at his worst in popularity, as a US president, Obama knows the risks in making any false moves, giving his Republican lobby one more reason to beat him and his party, Democrats, on what can be considered as, giving Modi, crown jewels. Disputes keeps Putin on the front pages of Europe. Disputes keep Obama in front pages of the world. Modi keeps breathing hard, just to keep alive. Modi has limited options. One being, how to please his Hindutva dogs from barking at a wrong tree. His public posture, says something else. No more 'chaiwalla,' from Vadgaum, Saurashtra, Gujarat but not yet a man at Delhi to make a difference. Smaller his stature, better for business, especially when foreign dignitaries come calling on him. Jingoism is a wrong posture. By now, Modi ought to know that what sells in India, has no demand in the world. His 'khaman-dhokla,' diplomacy did not work on Xi Jinping. It wouldn't work with Putin and Obama. What if Putin offers Modi natural Gas free and give diamonds at discount? Modi is bankrupt. Don't tell me he is not. India keeps current account gap in check despite easing of gold import curbs By Neha Dasgupta MUMBAI Mon Dec 8, 2014 9:51pm IST (Reuters) - India kept a lid on its current account deficit between July and September despite easing curbs on gold imports, data showed on Monday, thanks to a sharp increase in foreign investments and cheaper oil. The deficit reached $10.1 billion, or 2.1 percent of gross domestic product, compared with $5.2 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, a year earlier, the Reserve Bank of India data showed. Imports of gold - the second biggest burden on the trade balance after oil - accounted for most of that, nearly doubling to $7.6 billion from $3.9 billion, reflecting an easing of restrictions in May.

    

Source: TOI

...and I am Sid Harth

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