Monday, December 15, 2014

Modi's Economic Magic not Working

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21 hours ago - Modi's Economic Magic not Working India News India's Trade Deficit at 18-Month High in November Trade Deficit Swelled to $16.86 Billion Versus $9.57 Billion a ...

India’s Trade Deficit at 18-Month High in November

Trade Deficit Swelled to $16.86 Billion Versus $9.57 Billion a Year Earlier

India’s trade deficit widened to the highest in 18 months in November as strengthening demand for gold pushed up imports.
The deficit swelled to $16.86 billion, compared with $9.57 billion a year earlier and $13.35 billion in October.
Imports rose 26.79% to $42.82 billion as gold imports jumped to $5.61 billion from $835.83 million a year earlier.
Imports of non-oil commodities such as coal, iron and steel also rose significantly, pointing to strengthening economic activity.
“The data give a positive signal for India’s economic recovery because imports of primary and intermediate goods, which are used in production, have risen,” said Sujit Kumar, an economist at Union Bank of India .
A sharp fall in global commodity prices are encouraging importers to take advantage of low prices, he added.
Nevertheless, the rise in gold imports could revive some worries about India’s current-account deficit that had risen to worrying levels, pushing the rupee to record lows last year. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India ended a restriction on gold imports, dubbed as the 20:80 rule, under which a fifth of the imported gold had to be exported as jewelry or in other forms. That too could stoke demand for the yellow-metal and weaken India’s trade position.
“The rise in the trade deficit is likely to widen the current-account deficit, in line with the trend seen in the previous two quarters,” said Aditi Nayar, an economist at rating firm ICRA. “At present, we do not expect the current-account deficit to exceed 2% of gross domestic product in fiscal year 2015, as the recent slack in commodity prices would ease the pressure on imports,” she added.
Monday’s data also showed India’s exports resumed climbing in November, brightening prospects that a recovery in the south Asian economy would strengthen.
Exports rose 7.27% from a year earlier to $25.96 billion, after a 5.04% fall in October.
M. Rafeeque Ahmed, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said the rise was encouraging. But the government needs to take steps to support small exporters who are being hurt by high interest rates, he added.
Write to Anant Vijay Kala at and Rajesh Roy at

Source: WSJ

REFILE-Indian shares fall to 1-1/2 month low; TCS outlook weighs on IT stocks

Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:55pm IST
(Corrects syntax in headline)
* BSE index falls 0.11 pct; NSE index down 0.05 pct
* NSE index breaks 50-DMA, seems oversold
* Oil price slide roils emerging markets
* TCS slumps; brokers cut estimates after management comments
By Abhishek Vishnoi
MUMBAI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Indian shares edged lower after earlier hitting their lowest levels in 1-1/2 months as software services providers fell after Tata Consultancy Services' tepid comments on its outlook, while other blue-chips were hit by global risk aversion.
Oil prices touched fresh 5-1/2-year lows on Monday, spurring an emerging market selloff as demand for the safe-haven yen picked up while European stocks stabilised after their worst week since 2011.
Foreign investors sold shares worth 8.65 billion rupees on Friday, bringing their total outflow to nearly $280 million over the last four consecutive sessions of sales, regulatory data showed.
The 50-shares NSE index has started looking oversold after falling for six out of the past seven sessions and closing below its 50-day moving average on Monday for the first time in nearly two months.
"We believe the downside is limited from the current levels in index and expect consolidation or technical rebound in the coming session prior to any further fall," said Jayant Manglik, president at Religare Securities Ltd.
The benchmark BSE index ended 0.11 percent lower at 27,319.56.
The broader NSE index closed down 0.05 percent at 8,219.60, closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21.
Both indexes earlier declined to their lowest intraday level since Oct. 30.
Software stocks led the decliners after sector leader TCS on Friday said seasonal trends would impact its Q3 revenue.
TCS fell 3.8 percent, Tech Mahindra ended down 3.6 percent, Wipro Ltd lost 0.3 percent, Infosys ended 0.7 percent lower and HCL Technologies Ltd closed 1.8 percent down.
Metals and mining stocks fell tracking lower Chinese rebar futures and spot iron ore prices.
Tata Steel fell 0.4 percent, Jindal Steel and Power lost 2 percent, JSW Steel ended down 1.4 percent while Sesa Sterlite fell 2.8 percent.
In other blue-chips, Bharat Petroleum Corp fell 4.7 percent and Axis Bank lost 1.4 percent.
Among gainers, Oil and Natural Gas Corp rose 1.8 percent and Coal India gained 3.5 percent after Economic Times reported that disinvestments can be deferred till January.
Housing Development Finance Corp surged 5.1 percent, marking its biggest daily gain since Sept. 2013 on media reports Standard Life would increase stake in the lender's insurance unit.
For additional stocks on the move double click
FACTORS TO WATCH * Yen rises in choppy trading, euro on defensive * Oil hits new five-year low before rallying to $63 * Oil price slide roils emerging markets, yen rises * Foreign institutional investor flows * For closing rates of Indian ADRs
ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKETS: Pan-Asia........ Japan....... S.Korea... S.E. Asia....... Hong Kong... Taiwan.... Australia/NZ.... India....... China.....
OTHER MARKETS: Wall Street .... Gold ....... Currency.. Eurostocks..... Oil ........ JP bonds... ADR Report ..... LME metals. US bonds.. Stocks News US.. Stocks News Europe
DIARIES & DATA: Indian Data Watch Asia earnings diary U.S. earnings diary European diary Indian diary Wall Street Week Ahead Eurostocks Week Ahead
For top Asian company news, double click on:
U.S. company news European company news
Forex news Global Economy news
Technology news Telecoms news
Media news Banking news
Politics/General Asia Macro data ($1 = 62.9050 Indian rupees) (Editing by Sunil Nair)

Source: Thomson Reuters

...and I am Sid Harth 

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