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Iranian nuclear facility |
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Ron Ben-Yishai Photo: Dudu Azulay |
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Analysis: US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran
Obama betraying Israel? US making deliberate effort to
hinder Iran strike by leaking classified info, intelligence
assessments, says Ron Ben-Yishai in special Ynet report
Ron Ben-Yishai
The United States is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran: The US Administration recently shifted into high gear in its efforts to avert an Israeli strike on Iran’s
nuclear facilities by the end of the year. The flood of reports in
the American media in recent weeks attests not only to the genuine US
fear that Israel intends to realize its threats; moreover, it indicates that the Obama Administration has decided to take its gloves off.
Indeed, in recent weeks the Administration shifted from persuasion
efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a
practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in
Iran. This “surgical strike” is undertaken via reports in the American
and British media, but the campaign’s aims are fully operational: To
make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF to
carry out a strike, and what’s even graver, to erode the IDF’s capacity to launch such strike with minimal casualties.
Related articles:
The first and most important American objective is to eliminate
potential operational options available to the IDF and the State of
Israel. I have no intention of detailing or even hinting to the options
which the US government aims to eliminate by exposing them in the
media. A large part of the reports stem from false information or
disinformation, and there is no reason to reveal to the Iranians what’s
real and what isn’t. However, it is blatantly clear that reports in the
past week alone have caused Israel substantive diplomatic damage, and
possibly even military and operational damage.
Israeli F-16 (Photo: Gettyimages)
Another Administration objective is to convince the Israeli public that
an Iran strike (including a US attack) will not achieve even the
minimum required to justify it; that is, a delay of at least 3-5 years
in Iran’s nuclear program. A lengthy postponement would of course
justify the suffering on Israel’s home front, while a six-month delay –
as argued by a US Congress report – does not justify the risks.
The six-month figure was meant for the Israeli public, so that it would press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak
to avoid a strike, whose futility the Americans are trying to prove in
every way possible. At the same time, the campaign aims to erode the
validity of demands voiced by many members of Congress and Senate – both
Democrats and Republicans - who criticize the American president’s
inaction.
The Congress report published Wednesday is maligned by several
inaccuracies, in terms of both analysis and information. However, this
makes no difference. The aim was to make headlines in the Israeli and
Washington media, rather than an in-depth analysis, which isn’t possible
as Congress researchers in Washington do not have access to all the
relevant information, fortunately.
Congress in Iran’s service
The third objective of the recent publications is to scare the
Israeli public via an apocalyptic account of possible retaliation by
Iran and its “clients.” This effort also aims to press Israeli
decision-makers not to act (including the mention in the Congress report
of the accurate fact that Israel’s home front is not adequately
prepared to sustain a blow.) Some observers would argue that these
reports are not damaging, but rather, grant the Israeli threat validity,
thereby serving Western representatives in upcoming negotiations with
Iran. So what’s wrong with that?
The damage has to do with the revelation of secret information and
assessments that would require an expensive, risky intelligence effort
for the Iranians to acquire. Indeed, the Iranians already realize that
the West and Israel possess plenty of up-to-date information on Iran’s
nuclear project, including centrifuge workshops in Tehran homes. The
Ayatollah regime can also predict possible attack routes and methods by
Israel and the US.
A map of Iran's nuclear facilities
However, any rookie intelligence officer knows that there is a huge
difference between unconfirmed estimates and solid facts or IDF aims
and capabilities. Any Iranian intelligence analyst who reads the latest
US Congress report or the Foreign Policy report will find invaluable
information there. The overwhelming majority of the information has
already been published, yet instead of forcing the Iranians to piece
together all the assessments themselves, the Congress report offers
them everything in one place, including detailed analysis.
Fortunately, as noted, Congress researchers and those who leaked the
information to them apparently have some trouble in terms of reading
comprehension.
Betraying an ally
To sum up, the American publications caused the following damage:
- Iran now has a decent picture of what Israel’s and America’s
intelligence communities know about Tehran’s nuclear program and defense
establishment, including its aerial defenses.
- The Iranians now know about the indications that would be perceived
by Washington and Jerusalem as a “nuclear breakthrough”. Hence, Iran
can do a better job of concealment.
- The reports make it more difficult to utilize certain operational
options. These options, even if not considered thus far, could have been
used by the US in the future, should Iran not thwart them via
diplomatic and military means.
Needless to say, this is not how one should be treating an ally, even
if this is a relationship between a superpower and a satellite state.
The targeted assassination campaign currently undertaken by the US
government also sharply contradicts President Obama’s declaration at
the AIPAC Conference, whereby he and the US recognize Israel’s sovereign
right to defend itself by itself. One cannot utter these words and a
moment later exposes Israel’s vulnerabilities and possible strike routes
to its enemies.
Indeed, there is a difference between legitimate persuasion efforts and
practical steps to thwart Israeli plans and eliminate them.
For a total of seven years, I served as Yedioth Ahronoth’s reporter in
Washington, so I know very well that with a few exceptions, the US
Administration knows how to prevent leaks to the media if it so wishes.
This is the case even when dealing with former officials, and most
certainly when dealing with current government officials. What we are
seeing here is not a trickle of information, but rather, a powerful
current, a true flood that leaves no doubt as to the existence of an
orchestrated media campaign with clear aims.
There is another interesting aspect to this story from an American
point of view: In 2002, when President George W. Bush sought to embark
on war in Iraq, US intelligence agencies provided him with all the
“evidence” that Saddam Hussein is developing large quantities of
nuclear and chemical weapons. Following the war, when no traces of such
weapons were discovered in Iraq, a Congress inquiry found that US
intelligence officials were so eager to satisfy their president that
they cut corners and relied on unsubstantiated information.
Given American media reports in recent days, one must wonder whether
history is repeating itself. Could it be that the US intelligence
community is providing President Obama with what he needs for political
reasons – that is, information meant to curb an Israeli or American
strike on Iran?
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