Richard knocked on my door, even though it was wide open, this Sunday morning. He was asking me to join me in prayer. I see a trouble brewing, already. He is too excited to accept my offer with a counter offer. "I am taking you to (my) Church" Richard says. "OK." I say. "How come?" I ask. "The world, as we know, is coming to an end. I want some insurance, just in case" says he. "Goody." says I. "Here is what I wrote. Please read it." It was his poetry piece.
End of the world
The world may come to an end under the thumb of a dictator
Or the finish of an age when Man's no longer on the center stage
perhaps a planetary alignment or meteor explosin may cause the erosion of mankind
Just how far have we climbed, knocking ticks from off the evolutionary time
Are there signs the ancients sent pointing to a cataclysmic event such as the extinction of species?
It's happened before with the dinasurr
Will spacemen help save our planet?
Some information withheld by government
I should know, damn it
Spielberg's vision pursued, doomsday prophecies coming soon
Crisis unveils nations one against another
Combating ideologies which can't share the economies of supply and demand
Anarchy and chaos may stir up a cry for a united world order
Revelation compels us to understand that judgment is at hand
On the day of the Lord
Coming with heaven's armies and the awift sword of his word
Technology too complex which could destroy our humaity
No way know until that day
May be in a galaxy far away on alien race will kidnap some humans
As survivors in their zoo
Traveling in an arc captring everything in two's
What will be the end of self-consciousness for human beings?
Will there be anything worth leaving?
What is the plague or destruction we are fleeing?
Will we be the reason for our own demise
And what will arise from the ashes?
Maybe to Mars and beyond the Milky Way, at the speed of light
A black box could tell
The story of Homo sapiens upon the Earth
To broader universe
Which if lifeless, knows whether or not a sound was made
When it fell and fell away
A sound, maybe only dead (souls) would hear so well
A date inscription for the Mayan Long Count
A New Age interpretation of this transition is that this date marks the start of time in which Earth and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation, and that 2012 may mark the beginning of a new era.[5] Others suggest that the 2012 date marks the end of the world or a similar catastrophe. Scenarios suggested for the end of the world include the arrival of the next solar maximum, or Earth's collision with a black hole, passing asteroid or a planet called "Nibiru".
Scholars from various disciplines have dismissed the idea of such cataclysmic events occurring in 2012. Professional Mayanist scholars state that predictions of impending doom are not found in any of the extant classic Maya accounts, and that the idea that the Long Count calendar "ends" in 2012 misrepresents Maya history and culture.[3][6][7] Astronomers and other scientists have rejected the proposed events as pseudoscience, stating that they are contradicted by simple astronomical observations.[8]
Unlike the 52-year Calendar Round still used today among the Maya, the Long Count was linear rather than cyclical, and kept time roughly in units of 20: 20 days made a uinal, 18 uinals (360 days) made a tun, 20 tuns made a k'atun, and 20 k'atuns (144,000 days or roughly 394 years) made up a b'ak'tun. Thus, the Mayan date of 8.3.2.10.15 represents 8 b'ak'tuns, 3 k'atuns, 2 tuns, 10 uinals and 15 days.[12][13]
The oldest surviving manuscript of the Popol Vuh, dated to 1701
In the early 1900s, German scholar Ernst Förstemann interpreted the last page of the Dresden Codex as a representation of the end of the world in a cataclysmic flood. He made reference to “destruction of the world,” “apocalypse,” and “the end of the world”, though he made no reference to the 13th baktun or 2012 and it was not clear that he was referring to a future event.[26] His ideas were repeated by archaeologist Sylvanus Morley,[27] who directly paraphrased Förstemann and added his own embellishments, writing "Finally, on the last page of the manuscript, is depicted the Destruction of the World… Here, indeed, is portrayed with a graphic touch the final all-engulfing cataclysm" in the form of a Great Flood. These comments were later repeated in Morley's book The Ancient Maya, the first edition of which was published in 1946.[25]
The Tortuguero monument connects the end of the 13th b'ak'tun with the appearance of Bolon Yokte' K'uh, shown here on the Vase of Seven Gods.Very little is known about the god Bolon Yokte'. According to an article by Mayanists Markus Eberl and Christian Prager in British Anthropological Reports, his name is composed of the elements "nine", 'OK-te' (the meaning of which is unknown), and "god". Confusion in classical period inscriptions suggests that the name was already ancient and unfamiliar to contemporary scribes.[30] He also appears in inscriptions from Palenque, Usumacinta, and La Mar as a god of war, conflict, and the underworld. In one stele he is portrayed with a rope tied around his neck, and in another with an incense bag, together signifying a sacrifice to end a cycle of years.[31]
Based on observations of modern Mayan rituals, Gronemeyer and MacLeod claim that the stele refers to a celebration in which a person portraying Bolon Yokte' K'uh was wrapped in ceremonial garments and paraded around the site.[32][33] They note that the association of Bolon Yokte' K'uh with b'ak'tun 13 appears to be so important on this inscription that it supersedes more typical celebrations, such as "erection of stelae, scattering of incense" and so forth. They furthermore assert that this event was indeed planned for 2012, and not the 7th century.[34] However, Mayanist scholar Stephen Houston contests this view, arguing that future dates on Mayan inscriptions were simply meant to draw parallels with contemporary events, and that the words on the stela describe a contemporary rather than a future scene.[35]
Another example is Stele 1 at Coba, which gives a date of 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0, or twenty units above the b'ak'tun, placing it either 4.134105 × 1028 (41 octillion) years in the future,[23] or an equal distance in the past.[38] This date is 3 quintillion times the age of the universe as determined by cosmologists.
Similarly, the Sun's winter solstice position, its lowest point, (or summer solstice in the southern hemisphere) is currently in the constellation of Sagittarius, one of two constellations in which the zodiac intersects with the Milky Way.[53] Every year, on the winter solstice, the Sun and the Milky Way, from the surface of the Earth, appear to come into alignment, and every year, precession causes a slight shift in the Sun's position in the Milky Way. Given that the Milky Way is between 10° and 20° wide, it takes between 700 and 1400 years for the Sun's winter solstice position to precess through it.[54] It is currently about halfway through the Milky Way, crossing the galactic equator.[55]
Adherents to the idea, following a theory first proposed by Munro Edmonson,[58] allege that the Maya based their calendar on observations of the Great Rift or Dark Rift, a band of dark dust clouds in the Milky Way, which, according to some scholars, the Maya called the Xibalba be or "Black Road."[59] John Major Jenkins claims that the Maya were aware of where the ecliptic intersected the Black Road and gave this position in the sky a special significance in their cosmology.[60] According to Jenkins, precession will align the Sun precisely with the galactic equator at the 2012 winter solstice.[60] Jenkins claimed that the classical Maya anticipated this conjunction and celebrated it as the harbinger of a profound spiritual transition for mankind.[61] New Age proponents of the galactic alignment hypothesis argue that, just as astrology uses the positions of stars and planets to make claims of future events, the Mayans plotted their calendars with the objective of preparing for significant world events.[62] Jenkins attributes the insights of ancient Maya shamans about the galactic center to their use of psilocybin mushrooms, psychoactive toads, and other psychedelics.[63] Jenkins also associates the Xibalba be with a "world tree", drawing on studies of contemporary (not ancient) Maya cosmology.[64]
There is no clear evidence that the classic Maya were aware of precession. Some Maya scholars, such as Barbara MacLeod,[33] Michael Grofe,[68] Eva Hunt, Gordon Brotherston, and Anthony Aveni,[69] have suggested that some Mayan holy dates were timed to precessional cycles, but scholarly opinion on the subject remains divided.[22] There is also little evidence, archaeological or historical, that the Maya placed any importance on solstices or equinoxes.[22][70] It is possible that only the early Mesoamericans observed solstices,[71] but this is also a disputed issue among Mayanists.[22][70] There is also no evidence that the classic Maya attached any importance to the Milky Way; there is no glyph in their writing system to represent it, and no astronomical or chronological table tied to it.[72]
A screenshot of the "Timewave Zero" software"Timewave zero" is a numerological formula that purports to calculate the ebb and flow of "novelty", defined as increase over time in the universe's interconnectedness, or organized complexity.[73] According to Terence McKenna, the universe has a teleological attractor at the end of time that increases interconnectedness, eventually reaching a singularity of infinite complexity in 2012, at which point anything and everything imaginable will occur simultaneously. He conceived this idea over several years in the early to mid-1970s while using psilocybin mushrooms and DMT.[73]
McKenna expressed "novelty" in a computer program which purportedly produces a waveform known as "timewave zero" or the "timewave". Based on McKenna's interpretation of the King Wen sequence of the I Ching,[44] the graph appears to show great periods of novelty corresponding with major shifts in humanity's biological and sociocultural evolution. He believed that the events of any given time are recursively related to the events of other times, and chose the atomic bombing of Hiroshima as the basis for calculating his end date of November 2012. When he later discovered this date's proximity to the end of the 13th b'ak'tun of the Maya calendar, he revised his hypothesis so that the two dates matched.[74]
The first edition of The Invisible Landscape refers to 2012 (but no specific day during the year) only twice. In the 1993 second edition, McKenna employed Sharer's date[d] of December 21, 2012 throughout.[2]
Pic de Bugarach, Camps-sur-l'Agly, France; a target of "esoterics" who believe that some great transition will occur in 2012In India, the guru Kalki Bhagavan has promoted 2012 as a "deadline" for human enlightenment since at least 1998.[75] Over 15 million people consider Bhagavan to be the incarnation of the god Vishnu and believe that 2012 marks the end of the Kali Yuga, or degenerate age.[76]
In 2006, author Daniel Pinchbeck popularized New Age concepts about this date in his book 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, linking b'ak'tun 13 to beliefs in crop circles, alien abduction, and personal revelations based on the use of entheogens and mediumship.[77][78] Pinchbeck claims to discern a "growing realization that materialism and the rational, empirical worldview that comes with it has reached its expiration date ... [w]e're on the verge of transitioning to a dispensation of consciousness that's more intuitive, mystical and shamanic."[5]
Beginning in 2000, the small French village of Bugarach, population 189, began receiving visits from "esoterics"—mystic believers who have concluded that the local mountain, Pic de Bugarach, is the ideal location to weather the transformative events of 2012. In 2011, the local mayor, Jean-Pierre Delord, began voicing fears to the international press that the small town would be overwhelmed by an influx of thousands of visitors in 2012, even suggesting he may call in the army.[79][80]
A far more apocalyptic view of the year 2012 that has spread in various media describes the end of the world or of human civilization on that date. This view has been promulgated by many hoax pages on the Internet, particularly on YouTube.[81] The History Channel has aired a handful of special series on doomsday that include analysis of 2012 theories, such as Decoding the Past (2005–2007), 2012, End of Days (2006), Last Days on Earth (2006), Seven Signs of the Apocalypse (2007), and Nostradamus 2012 (2008).[82] In his book 2012: It's Not the End of the World Peter Lemesurier has listed many misleading statements in these films.[83] The Discovery Channel also aired 2012 Apocalypse in 2009, suggesting that massive solar storms, magnetic pole reversal, earthquakes, supervolcanoes, and other drastic natural events may occur in 2012.[84] Author Graham Hancock, in his book Fingerprints of the Gods, interpreted Coe's remarks in Breaking the Maya Code[85] as evidence for the prophecy of a global cataclysm.[86]
Some believers in a 2012 doomsday have used the term "galactic alignment" to describe a very different phenomenon proposed by some scientists to explain a pattern in mass extinctions supposedly observed in the fossil record.[91] According to this hypothesis, mass extinctions are not random, but recur every 26 million years. To account for this, it suggests that vertical oscillations made by the Sun as it orbits the galactic center cause it to regularly pass through the galactic plane. When the Sun's orbit takes it outside the galactic plane which bisects the galactic disc, the influence of the galactic tide is weaker. However, when re-entering the galactic disc—as it does every 20–25 million years—it comes under the influence of the far stronger "disc tides", which, according to mathematical models, increase the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner Solar System by a factor of 4, thus leading to a massive increase in the likelihood of a devastating comet impact.[92] However, this "alignment" takes place over tens of millions of years, and could never be timed to an exact date.[93] Evidence shows that the Sun passed through the plane bisecting the galactic disc only three million years ago and is now moving farther above it.[94]
A third suggested alignment is some sort of planetary conjunction occurring on December 21, 2012. However, there will be no alignment of planets on that date.[95] Multi-planet alignments did occur in both 2000 and 2010, each with no ill result for the Earth.[96] Jupiter is the largest planet in the Solar System; larger than all other planets combined. When Jupiter is near opposition, the Earth experiences less than 1% the gravitational force it feels daily from the Moon.[97]
Critics, however, claim that geomagnetic reversals take up to 7,000 years to complete, and do not start on any particular date.[100] Furthermore, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now predicts that the solar maximum will peak in May 2013, not 2012, and that it will be fairly weak, with a below-average number of sunspots.[101] In any case, there is no scientific evidence linking a solar maximum to a geomagnetic reversal, which is driven by forces entirely within the Earth.[102] Instead, a solar maximum would be mostly notable for its effects on satellite and cellular phone communications.[103] David Morrison attributes the rise of the solar storm idea to physicist and science popularizer Michio Kaku, who claimed in an interview with Fox News that a solar peak in 2012 could be disastrous for orbiting satellites.[81]
The Pleiades, a star cluster whose supposed influence is sometimes tied to the 2012 phenomenonOther speculations regarding doomsday in 2012 have included predictions by the Web Bot project, a computer program that purports to predict the future using Internet chatter. However, commentators have rejected the programmers' claims to have successfully predicted natural disasters, which web chatter could never predict, as opposed to human-caused disasters like stock market crashes.[106]
Also, the 2012 date has been loosely tied to the long-running concept of the Photon Belt, which predicts a form of interaction between Earth and Alcyone, the largest star of the Pleiades cluster.[107] Critics have argued that photons cannot form belts, that the Pleiades, located more than 400 light years away, could have no effect on Earth, and that the Solar System, rather than getting closer to the Pleiades, is in fact moving farther away from them.[108]
Some media outlets have tied the possibility that the red supergiant star Betelgeuse may undergo a supernova at some point in the future to the 2012 phenomenon. However, while Betelgeuse is certainly in the final stages of its life, and will die as a supernova, there is no way to predict the timing of the event to within 100,000 years.[109] To be a threat to Earth, a supernova would need to be as close as 25 light years to the Solar System. Betelgeuse is roughly 600 light years away, and so its supernova will not affect Earth.[110]
Another claim involves alien invasion. In December 2010, an article, first published in examiner.com and later referenced in the English-language edition of Pravda[111] claimed, citing a Second Digitized Sky Survey photograph as evidence, that SETI had detected three large spacecraft due to arrive at Earth in 2012.[112] Astronomer and debunker Phil Plait noted that by using the small-angle formula, one could determine that if the object in the photo was as large as claimed, it would have had to be closer to Earth than the Moon, which would mean it would already have arrived.[112]
The 2009 disaster film 2012 was inspired by the phenomenon, and advance promotion prior to its release included a stealth marketing campaign in which TV spots and websites from the fictional "Institute for Human Continuity" called on people to prepare for the end of the world. As these promotions did not mention the film itself, many viewers believed them to be real and contacted astronomers in panic.[114][115] Although the campaign was heavily criticized,[81] the film became one of the most successful of its year, grossing nearly $770 million worldwide.[116]
Lars von Trier's 2011 film Melancholia features a plot in which a planet emerges from behind the Sun onto a collision course with Earth.[117] Announcing his company's purchase of the film, the head of Magnolia Pictures said in a press release, "As the 2012 apocalypse is upon us, it is time to prepare for a cinematic last supper."[118] makes reference to the phenomenon.
The phenomenon has also inspired successful pop music hits such as "2012 (It Ain't the End)" (2010) performed by Jay Sean and "Till the World Ends" (2011) performed by Britney Spears.
In 2011, the Mexico tourism board stated its intentions to use the year 2012, without its apocalyptic connotations, as a means to revive Mexico's tourism industry, which had suffered as the country gained a reputation for drug wars and kidnapping. The initiative hopes to draw on the mystical appeal of the Mayan ruins.[119]
A graphical representation of the Arecibo message – Humanity's first attempt to use radio waves to actively communicate its existence to alien civilizationsThe Fermi paradox (Fermi's paradox or Fermi-paradox) is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.
The age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that unless the Earth is very atypical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[1] In an informal discussion in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi questioned why, if a multitude of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exists in the Milky Way galaxy, evidence such as spacecraft or probes is not seen. A more detailed examination of the implications of the topic began with a paper by Michael H. Hart in 1975, and it is sometimes referred to as the Fermi–Hart paradox.[2] Other common names for the same phenomenon are Fermi's question ("Where are they?"), the Fermi Problem, the Great Silence,[3][4][5][6][7] and silentium universi[7][8] (Latin for "the silence of the universe"; the misspelling silencium universi is also common).
There have been attempts to resolve the Fermi paradox by locating evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations, along with proposals that such life could exist without human knowledge. Counterarguments suggest that intelligent extraterrestrial life does not exist or occurs so rarely or briefly that humans will never make contact with it.
Starting with Hart, a great deal of effort has gone into developing scientific theories about, and possible models of, extraterrestrial life, and the Fermi paradox has become a theoretical reference point in much of this work. The problem has spawned numerous scholarly works addressing it directly, while questions that relate to it have been addressed in fields as diverse as astronomy, biology, ecology, and philosophy. The emerging field of astrobiology has brought an interdisciplinary approach to the Fermi paradox and the question of extraterrestrial life.
The second cornerstone of the Fermi paradox is a rejoinder to the argument by scale: given intelligent life's ability to overcome scarcity, and its tendency to colonize new habitats, it seems likely that at least some civilizations would be technologically advanced, seek out new resources in space and then colonize first their own star system and subsequently the surrounding star systems. Since there is no conclusive or certifiable evidence on Earth or elsewhere in the known universe of other intelligent life after 13.7 billion years of the universe's history, we have the conflict requiring a resolution. Some examples of which may be that intelligent life is rarer than we think, or that our assumptions about the general behavior of intelligent species are flawed.
The Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways. The first is, "Why are no aliens or their artifacts physically here?" If interstellar travel is possible, even the "slow" kind nearly within the reach of Earth technology, then it would only take from 5 million to 50 million years to colonize the galaxy.[11] This is a relatively small amount of time on a geological scale, let alone a cosmological one. Since there are many stars older than the Sun, or since intelligent life might have evolved earlier elsewhere, the question then becomes why the galaxy has not been colonized already. Even if colonization is impractical or undesirable to all alien civilizations, large-scale exploration of the galaxy is still possible; the means of exploration and theoretical probes involved are discussed extensively below. However, no signs of either colonization or exploration have been generally acknowledged.
The argument above may not hold for the universe as a whole, since travel times may well explain the lack of physical presence on Earth of alien inhabitants of far away galaxies. However, the question then becomes "Why do we see no signs of intelligent life?" since a sufficiently advanced civilization[Note 1] could potentially be observable over a significant fraction of the size of the observable universe.[12] Even if such civilizations are rare, the scale argument indicates they should exist somewhere at some point during the history of the universe, and since they could be detected from far away over a considerable period of time, many more potential sites for their origin are within range of our observation. However, no incontrovertible signs of such civilizations have been detected.
It is unclear which version of the paradox is stronger.[Note 2]
The equation was formulated by Dr. Frank Drake in 1961, a decade after the objections raised by Enrico Fermi, in an attempt to find a systematic means to evaluate the numerous probabilities involved in alien life. The speculative equation factors in: the rate of star formation in the galaxy; the fraction of stars with planets and the number per star that are habitable; the fraction of those planets which develop life, the fraction of intelligent life, and the further fraction of detectable technological intelligent life; and finally the length of time such civilizations are detectable. The fundamental problem is that the last four terms (fraction of planets with life, odds life becomes intelligent, odds intelligent life becomes detectable, and detectable lifetime of civilizations) are completely unknown. We have only one example, rendering statistical estimates impossible, and even the example we have is subject to a strong anthropic bias.
A deeper objection is that the very form of the Drake equation assumes that civilizations arise and then die out within their original solar systems. If interstellar colonization is possible, then this assumption is invalid, and the equations of population dynamics would apply instead.[16]
The Drake equation has been used by both optimists and pessimists with wildly differing results. Dr. Carl Sagan, using optimistic numbers, suggested as many as one million communicating civilizations in the Milky Way in 1966, though he later suggested that the actual number could be far smaller. Frank Tipler and John D Barrow used pessimistic numbers and concluded that the average number of civilizations in a galaxy is much less than one.[17][Note 3] Frank Drake himself has commented that the Drake equation is unlikely to settle the Fermi paradox; instead it is just a way of "organizing our ignorance" on the subject.[18]
One difficulty in searching is avoiding an overly anthropocentric viewpoint. Conjecture on the type of evidence likely to be found often focuses on the types of activities that humans have performed, or likely would perform given more advanced technology. Intelligent aliens might avoid these "expected" activities, or perform activities totally novel to humans.
The other way astronomy might settle the Fermi paradox is through a search specifically dedicated to finding evidence of life.
Radio telescopes are often used by SETI projectsRadio technology and the ability to construct a radio telescope are presumed to be a natural advance for technological species,[24] theoretically creating effects that might be detected over interstellar distances. Sensitive observers of the solar system, for example, would note unusually intense radio waves for a G2 star due to Earth's television and telecommunication broadcasts. In the absence of an apparent natural cause, alien observers might infer the existence of terrestrial civilization.
Therefore, the careful searching of radio emissions from space for non-natural signals may lead to the detection of alien civilizations. Such signals could be either "accidental" by-products of a civilization, or deliberate attempts to communicate, such as the Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence's Arecibo message. A number of astronomers and observatories have attempted and are attempting to detect such evidence, mostly through the SETI organization, although other approaches, such as optical SETI, also exist.
Several decades of SETI analysis have not revealed any main sequence stars with unusually bright or meaningfully repetitive radio emissions, although there have been several candidate signals. On August 15, 1977 the "Wow! signal" was picked up by The Big Ear radio telescope. However, the Big Ear only looks at each point on the sky for 72 seconds, and re-examinations of the same spot have found nothing. In 2003, Radio source SHGb02+14a was isolated by SETI@home analysis, although it has largely been discounted by further study. There are numerous technical assumptions underlying SETI that may cause human beings to miss radio emissions with present search techniques; these are discussed below.
A composite picture of Earth at night, created with data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS). Large-scale artificial lighting as produced by the human civilization is detectable from space.[25]Detection and classification of exoplanets has come out of recent refinements in mainstream astronomical instruments and analysis. While this is a new field in astronomy—the first published paper claiming to have discovered an exoplanet was released in 1989—it is possible that planets which are likely able to support life will be found in the near future.
Direct evidence for the existence of life may eventually be observable, such as the detection of biotic signature gases (such as methane and oxygen)—or even the industrial air pollution of a technologically advanced civilization—in an exoplanet's atmosphere by means of spectrographic analysis.[26] With improvements in our observational capabilities, it may eventually even be possible to detect direct evidence such as that which humanity produces (see right).
However, exoplanets are rarely directly observed (the first claim to have done so was made in 2004[27]); rather, their existence is usually inferred from the effects they have on the star(s) they orbit. This means that usually only the mass and orbit of an exoplanet can be deduced. This information, along with the stellar classification of its sun, and educated guesses as to its composition (usually based on the mass of the planet, and its distance from its sun), allows only for rough approximations of the planetary environment.
Prior to 2009, methods for exoplanet detection were not likely to detect life-bearing Earth-like worlds. Methods such as gravitational microlensing can detect the presence of "small" worlds, potentially even smaller than the Earth, but can only detect such worlds for very brief moments of time, and no follow-up is possible. Other methods such as radial velocity, astrometry, and the transit method allow prolonged observations of exoplanet effects, but only work with worlds that are many times the mass of Earth, at least when performed while looking through the atmosphere. These seem unlikely candidates to harbor Earth-like life. However, exoplanet detection and classification is a very active sub-discipline in astronomy, with 424 such planets being detected between 1988 and 2010,[28] and the first possibly terrestrial planet discovered within a star's habitable zone being found in 2007.[29] New refinements in exoplanet detection methods, and use of existing methods from space, (such as the Kepler Mission, launched in 2009) are expected to detect and characterize terrestrial-size planets, and determine if they are within the habitable zones of their stars. Such observational refinements may allow us to better gauge how common potentially habitable worlds are. Using methods like the Drake equation with this data would therefore allow a much better idea of how common life in the universe might be; this would have a profound influence over the expectations behind the Fermi paradox itself.
Some theoretical exploration techniques such as the Von Neumann probe (a self-replicating device) could exhaustively explore a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, with comparatively little investment in materials and energy relative to the results. If even a single civilization in the Milky Way attempted this, such probes could spread throughout the entire galaxy. Evidence of such probes might be found in the solar system—perhaps in the asteroid belt where raw materials would be plentiful and easily accessed.[30]
Another possibility for contact with an alien probe—one that would be trying to find human beings—is an alien Bracewell probe. Such a device would be an autonomous space probe whose purpose is to seek out and communicate with alien civilizations (as opposed to Von Neumann probes, which are usually described as purely exploratory). These were proposed as an alternative to carrying a slow speed-of-light dialogue between vastly distant neighbours. Rather than contending with the long delays a radio dialogue would suffer, a probe housing an artificial intelligence would seek out an alien civilization to carry on a close range communication with the discovered civilization. The findings of such a probe would still have to be transmitted to the home civilization at light speed, but an information-gathering dialogue could be conducted in real time.[31]
Since the 1950s, direct exploration has been carried out on a small fraction of the solar system and no evidence that it has ever been visited by alien colonists, or probes, has been uncovered. Detailed exploration of areas of the solar system where resources would be plentiful—such as the asteroids, the Kuiper belt, the Oort cloud and the planetary ring systems—may yet produce evidence of alien exploration, though these regions are vast and difficult to investigate. There have been preliminary efforts in this direction in the form of the SETA and SETV projects to search for extraterrestrial artifacts or other evidence of extraterrestrial visitation within the solar system.[32] There have also been attempts to signal, attract, or activate Bracewell probes in Earth's local vicinity, including by scientists Robert Freitas and Francisco Valdes.[33] Many of the projects that fall under this umbrella are considered "fringe" science by astronomers and none of the projects has located any artifacts.
Should alien artifacts be discovered, even here on Earth, they may not be recognizable as such. The products of an alien mind and an advanced alien technology might not be perceptible or recognizable as artificial constructs. Exploratory devices in the form of bio-engineered life forms created through synthetic biology would presumably disintegrate after a point, leaving no evidence; an alien information gathering system based on molecular nanotechnology could be all around us at this very moment, completely undetected. The same might be true of civilizations that actively hide their investigations from us, for possible reasons described further in this article. Also, Clarke's third law suggests that an alien civilization well in advance of humanity's might have means of investigation that are not yet conceivable to human beings.
A variant of the speculative Dyson sphere. Such large scale artifacts would drastically alter the spectrum of a star.In 1959, Freeman Dyson observed that every developing human civilization constantly increases its energy consumption, and theoretically, a civilization of sufficient age would require all the energy produced by its star. The Dyson Sphere was the thought experiment that he derived as a solution: a shell or cloud of objects enclosing a star to harness as much radiant energy as possible. Such a feat of astroengineering would drastically alter the observed spectrum of the star involved, changing it at least partly from the normal emission lines of a natural stellar atmosphere, to that of a black body radiation, probably with a peak in the infrared. Dyson himself speculated that advanced alien civilizations might be detected by examining the spectra of stars, searching for such an altered spectrum.[34]
Since then, several other theoretical stellar-scale megastructures have been proposed, but the central idea remains that a highly advanced civilization—Type II or greater on the Kardashev scale—could alter its environment enough as to be detectable from interstellar distances.
However, such constructs may be more difficult to detect than originally thought. Dyson spheres might have different emission spectra depending on the desired internal environment; life based on high-temperature reactions may require a high temperature environment, with resulting "waste radiation" in the visible spectrum, not the infrared.[35] Additionally, a variant of the Dyson sphere has been proposed which would be difficult to observe from any great distance; a Matrioshka brain is a series of concentric spheres, each radiating less energy per area than its inner neighbour. The outermost sphere of such a structure could be close to the temperature of the interstellar background radiation, and thus be all but invisible.
There have been some preliminary attempts to find evidence of the existence of Dyson spheres or other large Type-II or Type-III Kardashev scale artifacts that would alter the spectra of their core stars.[36][37] These surveys have not located anything yet, though they are still incomplete. Similarly, direct observation of thousands of galaxies has shown no explicit evidence of artificial construction or modifications.
For example, the emergence of intelligence may have been an evolutionary accident. Geoffrey Miller proposes that human intelligence is the result of runaway sexual selection, which takes unpredictable directions. Steven Pinker, in his book How the Mind Works, cautions that the idea that evolution of life (once it has reached a certain minimum complexity) is bound to produce intelligent beings, relies on the fallacy of the "ladder of evolution": As evolution does not strive for a goal but just happens, it uses the adaptation most useful for a given ecological niche, and the fact that, on Earth, this led to language-capable sentience only once so far may suggest that this adaptation is only rarely a good choice and hence by no means a sure endpoint of the evolution of a tree of life.
Another theory along these lines is that even if the conditions needed for life might be common in the universe, that the formation of life itself, a complex array of molecules that are capable simultaneously of reproduction, of extraction of base components from the environment, and of obtaining energy in a form that life can use to maintain the reaction (or the initial abiogenesis on a potential life-bearing planet), might ultimately be very rare.
Additionally, in the nondirectional meandering from initial life to humans, other low-probability happenings may have been the transition from prokaryotic cells to eukaryotic cells (with separate nucleus, organelles, specialization, and a cytoskeleton allowing the cell to take on different shapes) and the transition from single-cellular life to multicellular life, which was recorded in the Cambrian Explosion of 530 mya when significant numbers of organisms had evolved hard body parts, although multicellular life perhaps first started to evolve a couple of hundred million years before that. For most of Earth's history, there have only been single-celled creatures.
And there are many other potential branching points. For example, perhaps the transition from ocean creatures to land-dwelling creatures crucially depends on an unusually large moon and significant tides.
It is also possible that intelligence is common, but industrial civilization is not. For example, the rise of industrialism on Earth was driven by the presence of convenient energy sources such as fossil fuels. If such energy sources are rare or nonexistent elsewhere, then it may be far more difficult for an intelligent race to advance technologically to the point where we could communicate with them. There may also be other unique factors on which our civilization is dependent. Or, on a water world, where the intelligent creatures are something like dolphins, it may be difficult to build fire and forge metals.
Another possibility is that Earth is the first planet in the Milky Way on which industrial civilization has arisen.[40] However, critics note that according to current understanding, many Earth-like planets were created many billions of years prior to Earth, so this explanation requires repudiation of the mediocrity principle.[41]
Insofar as the Rare Earth Hypothesis privileges life on Earth and its process of formation, it is a variant of the anthropic principle. The variant of the anthropic principle states the universe seems uniquely suited towards developing human intelligence. This philosophical stance opposes not only the mediocrity principle, but also the wider Copernican principle, which suggests there is no privileged location in the universe.
Opponents dismiss both Rare Earth and the anthropic principle as tautological—if a condition must exist in the universe for human life to arise, then the universe must already meet that condition, as human life exists—and as an unimaginative argument. According to this analysis, the Rare Earth hypothesis confuses a description of how life on Earth arose with a uniform conclusion of how life must arise.[42] While the probability of the specific conditions on Earth being widely replicated is low, we do not know what complex life may require in order to evolve.[43][44]
From a Darwinian perspective, self-destruction would be a paradoxical outcome of evolutionary success. The evolutionary psychology that developed during the competition for scarce resources over the course of human evolution has left the species subject to aggressive, instinctual drives. These compel humanity to consume resources, extend longevity, and to reproduce—in part, the very motives that led to the development of technological society. It seems likely that intelligent extraterrestrial life would evolve in a similar fashion and thus face the same possibility of self-destruction. And yet, to provide a good answer to Fermi's Question, self-destruction by technological species would have to be a near universal occurrence.
This argument does not require the civilization to entirely self-destruct, only to become once again non-technological. In other ways it could persist and even thrive according to evolutionary standards, which postulate producing offspring as the sole goal of life—not "progress", be it in terms of technology or even intelligence.
This hypothesis requires at least one civilization to have arisen in the past, and the first civilization would not have faced this problem.[50] However, it could still be that Earth is alone now. Like exploration, the extermination of other civilizations might be carried out with self-replicating spacecraft. Under such a scenario,[Note 5] even if a civilization that created such machines were to disappear, the probes could outlive their creators, destroying civilizations far into the future.
If true, this argument reduces the number of visible civilizations in two ways—by destroying some civilizations, and forcing others to remain quiet, under fear of discovery (see They choose not to interact with us) so we would see no signs of them.
Religious reasons for doubting the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life resemble some forms of the Rare Earth Hypothesis. The argument here would be a teleological form of the strong anthropic principle: the universe was designed for the express purpose of creating human (and only human) intelligence.[54] This argument presupposes that a prior advanced intelligence existed in order to create human life, which might pose the question whether that intelligence was the only one to exist before it created us, but the perspective is a philosophical and abstract one.
It may be that non-colonizing technologically capable alien civilizations exist, but that they are simply too far apart for meaningful two-way communication.[56] If two civilizations are separated by several thousand light years, it is very possible that one or both cultures may become extinct before meaningful dialogue can be established. Human searches may be able to detect their existence, but communication will remain impossible because of distance. This problem might be ameliorated somewhat if contact/communication is made through a Bracewell probe. In this case at least one partner in the exchange may obtain meaningful information. Alternatively, a civilization may simply broadcast its knowledge, and leave it to the receiver to make what they may of it. This is similar to the transmission of information from ancient civilizations to the present,[57] and humanity has undertaken similar activities like the Arecibo message, which could transfer information about Earth's intelligent species, even if it never yields a response (or does not yield a response in time for humanity to receive it). It is also possible that archaeological evidence of past civilizations may be detected through deep space observations—especially if they left behind large artifacts such as Dyson spheres.
The problem of distance is compounded by the fact that timescales affording a "window of opportunity" for detection or contact might be quite small. Advanced civilizations may periodically arise and fall throughout our galaxy, but this may be such a rare event, relatively speaking, that the odds of two or more such civilizations existing at the same time are low. There may have been intelligent civilizations in the galaxy before the emergence of intelligence on Earth, and there may be intelligent civilizations after its extinction, but it is possible that human beings are the only intelligent civilization in existence now. The term "now" is somewhat complicated by the finite speed of light and the nature of spacetime under relativity. Assuming that an extraterrestrial intelligence is not able to travel to our vicinity at faster-than-light speeds, in order to detect an intelligence 1,000 light-years distant, that intelligence will need to have been active 1,000 years ago. Strictly speaking, only the portions of the universe lying within the past light cone of Earth need be considered, since any civilizations outside it could not be detected.
A related argument holds that other civilizations exist, and are transmitting and exploring, but their signals and probes simply have not arrived yet.[58] However, critics have noted that this is unlikely, since it requires that humanity's advancement has occurred at a very special point in time, while the Milky Way is in transition from empty to full. This is a tiny fraction of the life of a galaxy under ordinary assumptions and calculations resulting from them, so the likelihood that we're in the midst of this transition is considered low in the paradox.[59] Work on the theory of Neocatastrophism, wherein galactic and even super-galactic dynamics are seen as possibly frequently injurious to extant biospheres in a way that is roughly analogous to the way geological and climatological catastrophes have occasionally set back biological developments on Earth, might be given as a partial, if not full, resolution to the paradox, as advanced species might well be fragile to major events at a pace that would argue against a short transition.
It is possible, however, that present scientific knowledge cannot properly gauge the feasibility and costs of such interstellar colonization. Theoretical barriers may not yet be understood and the cost of materials and energy for such ventures may be so high as to make it unlikely that any civilization could afford to attempt it. Even if interstellar travel and colonization are possible, they may be difficult, leading to a colonization model based on percolation theory.[60] Colonization efforts may not occur as an unstoppable rush, but rather as an uneven tendency to "percolate" outwards, within an eventual slowing and termination of the effort given the enormous costs involved and the fact that colonies will inevitably develop a culture and civilization of their own. Colonization may thus occur in "clusters," with large areas remaining uncolonized at any one time.
A similar argument holds that interstellar physical travel may be possible, but is much more expensive than interstellar communication. Furthermore, to an advanced civilization, travel itself may be replaced by communication, through mind uploading and similar technologies.[61] Therefore the first civilization may have physically explored or colonized the galaxy, but subsequent civilizations find it cheaper, faster, and easier to travel and get information through contacting existing civilizations rather than physically exploring or traveling themselves. In this scenario, since there is little or no physical travel, and directed communications are hard to see except to the intended receiver, there could be many technical and interacting civilizations with few signs visible across interstellar distances.
One million years ago there would have been no humans for any extraterrestrial emissaries to meet. For each further step back in time, there would have been increasingly fewer indications to such emissaries that intelligent life would develop on Earth. In a large and already ancient universe, a space-faring alien species may well have had many other more promising worlds to visit and revisit. Even if alien emissaries visited in more recent times, they may have been interpreted by early human cultures as supernatural entities.
This hypothesis is more plausible if alien civilizations tend to stagnate or die out, rather than expand. In addition, "the probability of a site never being visited, even [with an] infinite time limit, is a non-zero value."[62] Thus, even if intelligent life expands elsewhere, it remains statistically possible that such extraterrestrial life might never discover Earth.
The greatest problem is the sheer size of the radio search needed to look for signals (effectively spanning the entire visible universe), the limited amount of resources committed to SETI, and the sensitivity of modern instruments. SETI estimates, for instance, that with a radio telescope as sensitive as the Arecibo Observatory, Earth's television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable at distances up to 0.3 light years.[64] Clearly detecting an Earth type civilization at great distances is difficult. A signal is much easier to detect if the signal energy is limited to either a narrow range of frequencies (Narrowband transmissions), and/or directed at a specific part of the sky. Such signals can be detected at ranges of hundreds to tens of thousands of light-years distance.[65] However this means that detectors must be listening to an appropriate range of frequencies, and be in that region of space to which the beam is being sent. Many SETI searches, starting with the venerable Project Cyclops, go so far as to assume that extraterrestrial civilizations will be broadcasting a deliberate signal (like the Arecibo message), in order to be found.
Thus to detect alien civilizations through their radio emissions, Earth observers either need more sensitive instruments or must hope for fortuitous circumstances: that the broadband radio emissions of alien radio technology are much stronger than our own; that one of SETI's programs is listening to the correct frequencies from the right regions of space; or that aliens are sending focused transmissions such as the Arecibo message in our general direction.
The first idea, that civilizations advance beyond radio, is based in part on the "fiber optic objection": the use of high power radio with low-to-medium gain (i.e., non-directional) antennas for long-distance transmission is wasteful of spectrum, yet this "waste" is precisely what makes these systems conspicuous at interstellar distances. Humans are moving to directional or guided transmission channels such as electrical cables, optical fibers, narrow-beam microwave and lasers, and conventional radio with non-directional antennas is increasingly reserved for low-power, short-range applications such as cell phones and Wi-Fi networks. These signals are far less detectable from space. Analog television, developed in the mid-twentieth century, contains strong carriers to aid reception and demodulation. Carriers are spectral lines that are very easily detected yet do not convey any information beyond their highly artificial nature. Nearly every SETI project is looking for carriers for just this reason, and UHF TV carriers are the most conspicuous and artificial signals from Earth that could be detected at interstellar distances. But advances in technology are replacing analog TV with digital television which uses spectrum more efficiently precisely by eliminating or reducing components such as carriers that make them so conspicuous. Using our own experience as an example, we could set the date of radio-visibility for Earth as December 12, 1901, when Guglielmo Marconi sent radio signals from Cornwall, England, to Newfoundland, Canada.[66] Visibility is now ending, or at least becoming orders of magnitude more difficult, as analog TV is being phased out. And so, if our experience is typical, a civilization remains radio-visible for approximately a hundred years. So a civilization may have been very visible from 1325 to 1483, but we were just not listening at that time. This is essentially the solution, "Everyone is listening, no one is sending."
More hypothetically, advanced alien civilizations evolve beyond broadcasting at all in the electromagnetic spectrum and communicate by principles of physics we don't yet understand. Some scientists have hypothesized that advanced civilizations may send neutrino signals.[67] If such signals exist they could be detectable by neutrino detectors that are now under construction.[68] If stable wormholes could be created and used for communications then interstellar broadcasts would become largely redundant. Thus it may be that other civilizations would only be detectable for a relatively short period of time between the discovery of radio and the switch to more efficient technologies.
One counter to this argument is that although broadcast communication may become difficult to detect, other uses for radio such as radar and power transmission cannot be replaced by low power technologies or fiber optics. These will potentially remain visible even after broadcast emission are replaced by less observable technology.[69]
A different argument is that resource depletion will soon result in a decline in technological capability. Human civilization has been capable of interstellar radio communication for only a few decades and is already rapidly depleting fossil fuels and confronting possible problems such as peak oil. It may only be a few more decades before energy becomes too expensive, and the necessary electronics and computers too difficult to manufacture, for us to continue the search. If the same conditions regarding energy supplies hold true for other civilizations, then radio technology may be a short-lived phenomenon. Unless two civilizations happen to be near each other and develop the ability to communicate at the same time it would be virtually impossible for any one civilization to "talk" to another.
Critics of the resource depletion argument point out that alternate energy sources exist, such as solar power, which are renewable and have enormous potential relative to technical barriers.[70] For depletion of fossil fuels to end the "technological phase" of a civilization, some form of technological regression would have to invariably occur, preventing the exploitation of renewable energy sources.
Even more extreme forms of post-singularity have been suggested, particularly in fiction: beings that divest themselves of physical form, create massive artificial virtual environments, transfer themselves into these environments through mind uploading, and exist totally within virtual worlds, ignoring the external physical universe. Surprisingly early treatments, such as Lewis Padgett's short story Mimsy were the Borogoves (1943), suggest a migration of advanced beings out of the presently known physical universe into a different and presumably more agreeable alternative one.
A further argument, suggested by Charles Stross in Accelerando, is that although advanced virtual civilizations - possibly en route developmentally to a Matrioshka Brain - could engage in travel to other star systems, they choose not to. This is not due to a lack of curiosity, but more through a set of energy-information economic choices, whereby in an information market predicated on available solar energy and planetary matter for building more computing capacity, the most successful virtual intelligences have to remain central to the star. Energy and proximity (and therefore wireless communication bandwidth and speed) are much greater closer to the matter and energy sources of the star, and larger planets, and so to be successful requires intra-solar-system focus. In this scenario, economic incentives to travel out of the solar system are inhibited.
One version of this perspective, which makes predictions for future SETI findings of transcension "fossils" and includes a variation of the Zoo hypothesis below, has been proposed by singularity scholar John Smart.[71]
Physiology might also cause a communication barrier. In Contact, Carl Sagan briefly speculated that an alien species might have a thought process orders of magnitude slower (or faster) than humans. Such a species could conceivably speak so slowly that it requires years to say even a simple phrase like "Hello". A message broadcast by that species might well seem like random background noise to humans, and therefore go undetected.
An example of an artificial planetarium circumventing the solar system.
Many other reasons that an alien race might avoid contact have been proposed. Aliens might only choose to allow contact once the human race has passed certain ethical, political, or technological standards, e.g., ending poverty/war or being able to master interstellar travel. They may not want to interfere with our natural independent progress,[Note 6] or the Earth may have been set up as an explicit experiment that contact would ruin.[83]
These ideas are perhaps most plausible if there is a single alien civilization within contact range, or there is a relatively universal cultural or legal policy amongst more advanced lifeforms necessitating isolation with respect to civilizations at Earth-like stages of development. If there is a plurality of alien cultures, however, this theory may break down under the uniformity of motive flaw: all it takes is a single culture or civilization to decide to act contrary to the imperative within our range of detection for it to be abrogated, and the probability of such a violation increases with the number of civilizations.[11] This idea, and many others, becomes more plausible if we estimate that our galaxy has only a relatively small number of civilizations, or that all civilizations tend to evolve similar cultural values in regard to contact, or that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization (a hegemony).[citation needed]
A related idea is that the perceived universe is a simulated reality. The planetarium hypothesis[84] holds that beings may have simulated a universe for us that appears to be empty of other life, by design. The simulation argument[85] by Bostrom holds that although such a simulation may contain other life, such life cannot be much in advance of us since a far more advanced civilization may be correspondingly hard to simulate. If we treat this matter literally, then the truth is entirely inaccessible, there being an infinite regress problem (See Simulated reality).
Carl Sagan and Iosif Shklovsky[90] argued for serious consideration of "paleocontact" with extraterrestrials in the early historical era, and for examination of myths and religious lore for evidence of such contact. Sagan and Shklovsky noted that many or most religions were founded by men who claimed contact with supernatural entities who bestowed wisdom, guidance and technology, citing the fish-god Oannes as a particularly salient example. On this hypothesis, there is in fact ample evidence of alien visitation – it is simply not recognized as such.
It is possible that a life form technologically advanced enough to travel to Earth might also be sufficiently advanced to exist here undetected. In this view, the aliens have arrived on Earth, or in our solar system, and are observing the planet, while concealing their presence. Observation could conceivably be conducted in a number of ways that would be very difficult to detect. For example, a complex system of microscopic monitoring devices constructed via molecular nanotechnology could be deployed on Earth and remain undetected, or sophisticated instruments could conduct passive monitoring from elsewhere.
UFO researchers note that the Fermi Paradox arose within the context of a wave of UFO reports, yet Fermi, Teller, York and Konopinski apparently dismissed the possibility that flying saucers might be extraterrestrial – despite contemporary US Air Force investigations that judged a small portion of UFO reports as inexplicable by contemporary technology. (Mainstream scientific publications have occasionally addressed the possibility of extraterrestrial contact,[91] but the scientific community in general has given little serious attention to claims of unidentified flying objects.) Given that UFO investigators argue compelling evidence supports the reality of UFOs as anomalies, but that extant UFO evidence does not support an extraterrestrial origin, it is suggested that closer examination of UFO data may confirm or falsify the Fermi paradox and/or the extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO origins: “Any refusal of interest [by mainstream scientists] in investigating the UFO phenomenon, using an ETI [extraterrestrial intelligence] concept as one working hypothesis, should surely be astonishing.”[92]
This extraterrestrial hypothesis was jokingly suggested in response to Fermi's paradox by his fellow physicist, Leó Szilárd, who suggested to Fermi that extraterrestrials "are already among us—but they call themselves Hungarians",[93][94] a humorous reference to the peculiar Hungarian language, unrelated to most other languages spoken in Europe.[93][Note 7]
Eschatology 
i/ˌɛskəˈtɒlədʒi/ (from the Greek ἔσχατος/ἐσχάτη/ἔσχατον, eschatos/eschatē/eschaton meaning "last" and -logy meaning "the study of", first used in English around 1550)[1] is a part of theology, philosophy, and futurology concerned with what are believed to be the final events of history, the ultimate destiny of humanity — commonly referred to as the end of the world or the "World to Come."
The Oxford English Dictionary defines eschatology as "concerned with ‘the four last things: death, judgment, heaven, and hell’".[2]
In the context of mysticism, the phrase refers metaphorically to the end of ordinary reality and reunion with the Divine. In many religions it is taught as an existing future event prophesied in sacred texts or folklore. More broadly, eschatology may encompass related concepts such as the Messiah or Messianic Age, the end time, and the end of days.
History is often seen as being divided into "ages" (Gk. aeons), an age being a period where certain realities are present. An age may come to an end and be replaced by a new age where different realities are present. This transition from one age to another is often the subject of eschatological discussion. So, instead of "the end of the world" we may speak of "the end of the age" and be referring to the end of "life as we know it" and the beginning of a new reality. Indeed, much apocalyptic fiction does not deal with the "end of time" but rather with the end of a certain period of time, the end of life as it is now, and the beginning of a new period of time. It is usually a crisis that brings an end to current reality and ushers in a new way of living / thinking / being. This crisis may take the form of the intervention of a deity in history, a war, a change in the environment or the reaching of a new level of consciousness. If a better world results, we say it is "utopian". If a worse, it is "dystopian." Eschatologies vary as to their degree of optimism or pessimism about the future (indeed, the same future may be utopian for some and dystopic for others - "heaven and hell" for example).
Most modern eschatology and apocalypticism, both religious and secular, involves the violent disruption or destruction of the world, whereas Christian and Jewish eschatologies view the end times as the consummation or perfection of God's creation of the world. For example, according to ancient Hebrew belief, life takes a linear (and not cyclical) path; the world began with God and is constantly headed toward God’s final goal for creation.
The Sun at the centre of the Solar System will turn into a red giant in about 5 billion years (see the section on the Sun's Life cycle). As a red giant, the Sun will have a maximum radius beyond the Earth's current orbit. A second strand of rationalist based eschatology is founded on this scientifically well grounded observation. The Sun's expansion will obviously not lead to the end of the Universe. Its effects will be limited to our Solar System. It will inevitably lead to the disappearance of our planet. Life on Earth will become impossible due to a rise in temperature long before the planet is actually swallowed up by the Sun.
Ultimately, conditions will deteriorate to the point of a "sword-interval," in which swords appear in the hands of all human beings, and they hunt one another like game. A few people, however, will take shelter in the wilderness to escape the carnage, and when the slaughter is over, they will come out of hiding and resolve to take up a life of skillful and virtuous action again. With the recovery of virtue, the human life span will gradually increase again until it reaches 80,000 years, with people attaining sexual maturity at 500.
According to Tibetan Buddhist literature, the age of first Buddha was 1,000,000 years and height was 100 cubits while 28th Buddha, Siddhartha Gautama (563BC–483BC) lived 80 years and his height was 20 cubits.
The second coming of Christ is the central event in Christian eschatology. Most Christians believe that death and suffering will continue to exist until Christ's return. There are, however, various views concerning the order and significance of other eschatological events.
The book of Revelation is at the core of Christian eschatology. The study of Revelation is usually divided into four approaches. In the Futurist approach, Revelation is chiefly seen as referring to events which as yet have not come to pass, but which will come to pass at the end of the age, and the end of the world. This is the approach which most applies to eschatological studies. In the Preterist approach, Revelation chiefly refers to the events of the first century, such as the struggle of Christianity to survive the persecutions of the Roman Empire, the fall of Jerusalem in 70 AD, and the desecration of the temple in the same year. In the Historicist approach, Revelation provides us with a broad view of history, and passages in Revelation are identified with major historical people and events. In the Idealist (or Spiritualist or Symbolic) approach, the events of Revelation are neither past nor future, but are purely symbolic, dealing with the ongoing struggle and ultimate triumph of good over evil.
Most Hindus believe that we are living in the Kali Yuga, the last of four periods (Yuga) that make up the current age. Each period has seen a successive degeneration in the moral order and character of human beings, to the point that in the Kali Yuga quarrel and hypocrisy are prevalent. Often, the invocation of Kali Yuga denotes a certain helplessness in the face of the horrors and suffering of the human condition and a nostalgia for a golden past or a future salvation.
However, Hindu conceptions of time, like those found in other non-Western traditions, are cyclical in that one age may end but another will always begin. As such, the cycle of birth, growth, decay, death, and renewal at the individual level finds its echo in the cosmic order of all things, yet affected by the vagaries of the comings and goings of divine interventions in the Vaishnavite belief.
Most Hindus believe that Shiva will destroy the world at the end of the kalpa. Some Shaivites hold the view that he is incessantly destroying and creating the world.
End of the world
The world may come to an end under the thumb of a dictator
Or the finish of an age when Man's no longer on the center stage
perhaps a planetary alignment or meteor explosin may cause the erosion of mankind
Just how far have we climbed, knocking ticks from off the evolutionary time
Are there signs the ancients sent pointing to a cataclysmic event such as the extinction of species?
It's happened before with the dinasurr
Will spacemen help save our planet?
Some information withheld by government
I should know, damn it
Spielberg's vision pursued, doomsday prophecies coming soon
Crisis unveils nations one against another
Combating ideologies which can't share the economies of supply and demand
Anarchy and chaos may stir up a cry for a united world order
Revelation compels us to understand that judgment is at hand
On the day of the Lord
Coming with heaven's armies and the awift sword of his word
Technology too complex which could destroy our humaity
No way know until that day
May be in a galaxy far away on alien race will kidnap some humans
As survivors in their zoo
Traveling in an arc captring everything in two's
What will be the end of self-consciousness for human beings?
Will there be anything worth leaving?
What is the plague or destruction we are fleeing?
Will we be the reason for our own demise
And what will arise from the ashes?
Maybe to Mars and beyond the Milky Way, at the speed of light
A black box could tell
The story of Homo sapiens upon the Earth
To broader universe
Which if lifeless, knows whether or not a sound was made
When it fell and fell away
A sound, maybe only dead (souls) would hear so well
2012 phenomenon
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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For other uses, see 2012 (disambiguation).
The 2012 phenomenon comprises a range of eschatological beliefs according to which cataclysmic or transformative events will occur on December 21, 2012.[1][2][3][4] This date is regarded as the end-date of a 5,125-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar. Various astronomical alignments and numerological formulae related to this date have been proposed.A New Age interpretation of this transition is that this date marks the start of time in which Earth and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation, and that 2012 may mark the beginning of a new era.[5] Others suggest that the 2012 date marks the end of the world or a similar catastrophe. Scenarios suggested for the end of the world include the arrival of the next solar maximum, or Earth's collision with a black hole, passing asteroid or a planet called "Nibiru".
Scholars from various disciplines have dismissed the idea of such cataclysmic events occurring in 2012. Professional Mayanist scholars state that predictions of impending doom are not found in any of the extant classic Maya accounts, and that the idea that the Long Count calendar "ends" in 2012 misrepresents Maya history and culture.[3][6][7] Astronomers and other scientists have rejected the proposed events as pseudoscience, stating that they are contradicted by simple astronomical observations.[8]
Contents[hide] |
[edit] Mesoamerican Long Count calendar
Main article: Mesoamerican Long Count calendar
December 2012 marks the conclusion of a b'ak'tun—a time period in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar which was used in Central America prior to the arrival of Europeans. Though the Long Count was most likely invented by the Olmec,[9] it has become closely associated with the Maya civilization, whose classic period lasted from 250 to 900 AD.[10] The writing system of the classic Maya has been substantially deciphered,[11] meaning that a corpus of their written and inscribed material has survived from before the European conquest.Unlike the 52-year Calendar Round still used today among the Maya, the Long Count was linear rather than cyclical, and kept time roughly in units of 20: 20 days made a uinal, 18 uinals (360 days) made a tun, 20 tuns made a k'atun, and 20 k'atuns (144,000 days or roughly 394 years) made up a b'ak'tun. Thus, the Mayan date of 8.3.2.10.15 represents 8 b'ak'tuns, 3 k'atuns, 2 tuns, 10 uinals and 15 days.[12][13]
[edit] Apocalypse
See also: Fifth World (Native American mythology)
There is a strong tradition of "world ages" in Mayan literature, but the record has been distorted, leaving several possibilities open to interpretation.[14] According to the Popol Vuh, a compilation of the creation accounts of the K'iche' Maya of the Colonial-era highlands, we are living in the fourth world.[15] The Popol Vuh describes the gods first creating three failed worlds, followed by a successful fourth world in which humanity was placed. In the Maya Long Count, the previous world ended after 13 b'ak'tuns, or roughly 5,125 years.[16][a] The Long Count's "zero date"[b] was set at a point in the past marking the end of the third world and the beginning of the current one, which corresponds to 11 August 3114 BC in the proleptic Gregorian calendar.[17][c] This means that the fourth world will also have reached the end of its 13th b'ak'tun, or Mayan date 13.0.0.0.0, on December 21, 2012.[1][c] In 1957, Mayanist and astronomer Maud Worcester Makemson wrote that "the completion of a Great Period of 13 b'ak'tuns would have been of the utmost significance to the Maya".[18] In 1966, Michael D. Coe wrote in The Maya that "there is a suggestion ... that Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation on the final day of the 13th [b'ak'tun]. Thus ... our present universe [would] be annihilated [in December 2012][d] when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion."[19][edit] Objections
Coe's interpretation was repeated by other scholars through the early 1990s.[20] In contrast, later researchers said that, while the end of the 13th b'ak'tun would perhaps be a cause for celebration,[3] it did not mark the end of the calendar.[21] "There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012," said Mayanist scholar Mark Van Stone. "The notion of a "Great Cycle" coming to an end is completely a modern invention."[22] In 1990, Mayanist scholars Linda Schele and David Freidel argued that the Maya "did not conceive this to be the end of creation, as many have suggested."[23] Susan Milbrath, curator of Latin American Art and Archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History, stated that "We have no record or knowledge that [the Maya] would think the world would come to an end" in 2012.[3] "For the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle," said Sandra Noble, executive director of the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies. The 2012 phenomenon, she said, is "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."[3] "There will be another cycle," said E. Wyllys Andrews V, director of the Tulane University Middle American Research Institute. "We know the Maya thought there was one before this, and that implies they were comfortable with the idea of another one after this."[24][edit] Prior associations
The European association of the Maya with eschatology dates back to the time of Christopher Columbus, who was compiling a work called Libro de las profecias during the voyage in 1502 when he first heard about the "Maia" on Guanaja, an island off the north coast of Honduras.[25] Influenced by the writings of Bishop Pierre d'Ailly, Columbus believed that his discovery of "most distant" lands (and, by extension, the Maya themselves) was prophesied and would bring about the Apocalypse. End-times fears were widespread during the early years of the Spanish Conquest as the result of popular astrological predictions in Europe of a second Great Flood for the year 1524.[25]In the early 1900s, German scholar Ernst Förstemann interpreted the last page of the Dresden Codex as a representation of the end of the world in a cataclysmic flood. He made reference to “destruction of the world,” “apocalypse,” and “the end of the world”, though he made no reference to the 13th baktun or 2012 and it was not clear that he was referring to a future event.[26] His ideas were repeated by archaeologist Sylvanus Morley,[27] who directly paraphrased Förstemann and added his own embellishments, writing "Finally, on the last page of the manuscript, is depicted the Destruction of the World… Here, indeed, is portrayed with a graphic touch the final all-engulfing cataclysm" in the form of a Great Flood. These comments were later repeated in Morley's book The Ancient Maya, the first edition of which was published in 1946.[25]
[edit] Mayan references to b'ak'tun 13
It is not certain what significance the classic Maya give to the 13th b'ak'tun.[28] Most classic Maya inscriptions are strictly historical and do not make any prophetic declarations.[28] One item in the Mayan classical corpus, however, does mention the end of the 13th b'ak'tun: Tortuguero Monument 6.[edit] Tortuguero
The Tortuguero site, which lies in southernmost Tabasco, Mexico, dates from the 7th century AD and consists of a series of inscriptions mostly in honor of the contemporary ruler Bahlam Ajaw. One inscription, known as Tortuguero Monument 6, is the only inscription known to refer to b'ak'tun 13. It has been partially defaced; Sven Gronemeyer and Barbara MacLeod have given this translation:
|
|
Based on observations of modern Mayan rituals, Gronemeyer and MacLeod claim that the stele refers to a celebration in which a person portraying Bolon Yokte' K'uh was wrapped in ceremonial garments and paraded around the site.[32][33] They note that the association of Bolon Yokte' K'uh with b'ak'tun 13 appears to be so important on this inscription that it supersedes more typical celebrations, such as "erection of stelae, scattering of incense" and so forth. They furthermore assert that this event was indeed planned for 2012, and not the 7th century.[34] However, Mayanist scholar Stephen Houston contests this view, arguing that future dates on Mayan inscriptions were simply meant to draw parallels with contemporary events, and that the words on the stela describe a contemporary rather than a future scene.[35]
[edit] Dates beyond b'ak'tun 13
Mayan inscriptions occasionally mention predicted future events or commemorations that would occur on dates far beyond the completion of the 13th b'ak'tun. Most of these are in the form of "distance dates": Long Count dates given together with an additional number, known as a Distance Number, which when added together make a future date. On the west panel at the Temple of Inscriptions in Palenque, a section of text projects forward to the 80th 52-year Calendar Round from the coronation of the ruler K'inich Janaab' Pakal. Pakal's accession occurred on 9.9.2.4.8, equivalent to 27 July 615 AD in the proleptic Gregorian calendar. The inscription begins with Pakal's birthdate of 9.8.9.13.0 (March 24, 603 AD Gregorian) and then adds the Distance Number 10.11.10.5.8 to it,[36] arriving at a date of October 21, 4772 AD, more than 4,000 years after Pakal's time.[22][36][37]Another example is Stele 1 at Coba, which gives a date of 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0, or twenty units above the b'ak'tun, placing it either 4.134105 × 1028 (41 octillion) years in the future,[23] or an equal distance in the past.[38] This date is 3 quintillion times the age of the universe as determined by cosmologists.
[edit] New Age beliefs
Many assertions about the year 2012 form part of a non-codified collection of New Age beliefs about ancient Maya wisdom and spirituality.[4][39] Archaeoastronomer Anthony Aveni says that while the idea of "balancing the cosmos" was prominent in ancient Maya literature, the 2012 phenomenon does not draw from those traditions. Instead, it is bound up with American concepts such as the New Age movement, millenarianism, and the belief in secret knowledge from distant times and places.[40] Established themes found in 2012 literature include "suspicion towards mainstream Western culture," the idea of spiritual evolution, and the possibility of leading the world into the New Age by individual example or by a group's joined consciousness. The general intent of this literature is not to warn of impending doom but "to foster counter-cultural sympathies and eventually socio-political and 'spiritual' activism".[2] Aveni, who has studied New Age and SETI communities, describes 2012 narratives as the product of a "disconnected" society: "Unable to find spiritual answers to life's big questions within ourselves, we turn outward to imagined entities that lie far off in space or time—entities that just might be in possession of superior knowledge."[41][edit] Origins
In 1975, the ending of b'ak'tun 13 became the subject of speculation by several New Age authors, who asserted it would correspond with a global "transformation of consciousness". In Mexico Mystique: The Coming Sixth Age of Consciousness, Frank Waters tied Coe's original date of December 24, 2011,[d] to astrology and the prophecies of the Hopi,[42] while both José Argüelles (in The Transformative Vision)[43] and Terence McKenna (in The Invisible Landscape)[44][45] discussed the significance of the year 2012, but not a specific day. It was only in 1983, with the publication of Robert J. Sharer's revised table of date correlations in the 4th edition of Morley's The Ancient Maya,[d] that each became convinced that December 21, 2012, had significant meaning. By 1987, the year in which he organized the Harmonic Convergence event, Arguelles was using the date December 21, 2012 in The Mayan Factor: Path Beyond Technology.[46][47] He claimed that on August 13, 3113 BC the Earth began a passage through a "galactic synchronization beam" that emanated from the center of our galaxy, that it would pass through this beam during a period of 5200 tuns (Maya cycles of 360-days each), and that this beam would result in "total synchronization" and "galactic entrainment" of individuals "plugged into the Earth's electromagnetic battery" by 13.0.0.0.0 (December 21, 2012). He believed that the Maya aligned their calendar to correspond to this phenomenon.[48] Anthony Aveni has dismissed all of these ideas.[49][edit] Galactic alignment
There is no significant astronomical event tied to the Long Count's start date.[50] However, its supposed end date has been tied to astronomical phenomena by esoteric, fringe, and New Age literature that places great significance on astrology. Chief among these is the concept of the "galactic alignment."[edit] Precession
In the Solar System, the planets and the Sun lie roughly within the same flat plane, known as the plane of the ecliptic. From our perspective on Earth, the ecliptic is the path taken by the Sun across the sky over the course of the year. The twelve constellations that line the ecliptic are known as the zodiac and, annually, the Sun passes through all of them in turn. Additionally, over time, the Sun's annual cycle appears to recede very slowly backward by one degree every 72 years, or by one constellation every 2,160 years. This backward movement, called "precession", is due to a slight wobble in the Earth's axis as it spins, and can be compared to the way a spinning top wobbles as it slows down.[51] Over the course of 25,800 years, a period often called a Great Year, the Sun completes a full, 360-degree backward circuit through the zodiac.[51] In Western astrological traditions, precession is measured from the northern hemisphere's spring equinox, or the point at which the Sun is exactly halfway between its lowest and highest points in the sky. Presently, the Sun's spring equinox position is in the constellation Pisces and is moving back into Aquarius. This signals the end of one astrological age (the Age of Pisces) and the beginning of another (the Age of Aquarius).[52]Similarly, the Sun's winter solstice position, its lowest point, (or summer solstice in the southern hemisphere) is currently in the constellation of Sagittarius, one of two constellations in which the zodiac intersects with the Milky Way.[53] Every year, on the winter solstice, the Sun and the Milky Way, from the surface of the Earth, appear to come into alignment, and every year, precession causes a slight shift in the Sun's position in the Milky Way. Given that the Milky Way is between 10° and 20° wide, it takes between 700 and 1400 years for the Sun's winter solstice position to precess through it.[54] It is currently about halfway through the Milky Way, crossing the galactic equator.[55]
[edit] Mysticism
Mystical speculations about the precession of the equinoxes and the Sun's proximity to the center of the Milky Way appeared in Hamlet's Mill (1969) by Giorgio de Santillana and Hertha von Deschend. These were quoted and expanded upon by Terence and Dennis McKenna in The Invisible Landscape (1975). The significance of a future "galactic alignment" was noted in 1991 by astrologer Raymond Mardyks, who asserted that the winter solstice would align with the galactic plane in 1998/1999, writing that an event that "only occurs once each 26,000 year cycle and would be most definitely of utmost significance to the top flight ancient astrologers."[56] Astrologer Bruce Scofield notes, "The Milky Way crossing of the winter solstice is something that has been neglected by Western astrologers, with a few exceptions. Charles Jayne made a very early reference to it, and in the 1970s Rob Hand mentioned it in his talks on precession but didn't elaborate on it. Ray Mardyks later made a point of it, and after that John [Major] Jenkins, myself, and Daniel Giamario began to talk about it."[57]
Adherents to the idea, following a theory first proposed by Munro Edmonson,[58] allege that the Maya based their calendar on observations of the Great Rift or Dark Rift, a band of dark dust clouds in the Milky Way, which, according to some scholars, the Maya called the Xibalba be or "Black Road."[59] John Major Jenkins claims that the Maya were aware of where the ecliptic intersected the Black Road and gave this position in the sky a special significance in their cosmology.[60] According to Jenkins, precession will align the Sun precisely with the galactic equator at the 2012 winter solstice.[60] Jenkins claimed that the classical Maya anticipated this conjunction and celebrated it as the harbinger of a profound spiritual transition for mankind.[61] New Age proponents of the galactic alignment hypothesis argue that, just as astrology uses the positions of stars and planets to make claims of future events, the Mayans plotted their calendars with the objective of preparing for significant world events.[62] Jenkins attributes the insights of ancient Maya shamans about the galactic center to their use of psilocybin mushrooms, psychoactive toads, and other psychedelics.[63] Jenkins also associates the Xibalba be with a "world tree", drawing on studies of contemporary (not ancient) Maya cosmology.[64]
[edit] Criticism
Astronomers such as David Morrison argue that the galactic equator is an entirely arbitrary line, and can never be precisely drawn because it is impossible to determine the Milky Way's exact boundaries, which vary depending on clarity of view. Jenkins claims he drew his conclusions about the location of the galactic equator from observations taken at above 11,000 feet (3,400 m), an altitude that gives a clearer image of the Milky Way than Mayans had access to.[48] Furthermore, since the Sun is half a degree wide, it requires 36 years for it to precess across any single point. Jenkins himself notes that even given this determined location for the line of the galactic equator, its most precise convergence with the center of the Sun already occurred in 1998, and so asserts that, rather than 2012, the galactic alignment instead focuses on a multi-year period centred on 1998.[65][66][67]There is no clear evidence that the classic Maya were aware of precession. Some Maya scholars, such as Barbara MacLeod,[33] Michael Grofe,[68] Eva Hunt, Gordon Brotherston, and Anthony Aveni,[69] have suggested that some Mayan holy dates were timed to precessional cycles, but scholarly opinion on the subject remains divided.[22] There is also little evidence, archaeological or historical, that the Maya placed any importance on solstices or equinoxes.[22][70] It is possible that only the early Mesoamericans observed solstices,[71] but this is also a disputed issue among Mayanists.[22][70] There is also no evidence that the classic Maya attached any importance to the Milky Way; there is no glyph in their writing system to represent it, and no astronomical or chronological table tied to it.[72]
[edit] Timewave zero and the I Ching
McKenna expressed "novelty" in a computer program which purportedly produces a waveform known as "timewave zero" or the "timewave". Based on McKenna's interpretation of the King Wen sequence of the I Ching,[44] the graph appears to show great periods of novelty corresponding with major shifts in humanity's biological and sociocultural evolution. He believed that the events of any given time are recursively related to the events of other times, and chose the atomic bombing of Hiroshima as the basis for calculating his end date of November 2012. When he later discovered this date's proximity to the end of the 13th b'ak'tun of the Maya calendar, he revised his hypothesis so that the two dates matched.[74]
The first edition of The Invisible Landscape refers to 2012 (but no specific day during the year) only twice. In the 1993 second edition, McKenna employed Sharer's date[d] of December 21, 2012 throughout.[2]
[edit] Other concepts
In 2006, author Daniel Pinchbeck popularized New Age concepts about this date in his book 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, linking b'ak'tun 13 to beliefs in crop circles, alien abduction, and personal revelations based on the use of entheogens and mediumship.[77][78] Pinchbeck claims to discern a "growing realization that materialism and the rational, empirical worldview that comes with it has reached its expiration date ... [w]e're on the verge of transitioning to a dispensation of consciousness that's more intuitive, mystical and shamanic."[5]
Beginning in 2000, the small French village of Bugarach, population 189, began receiving visits from "esoterics"—mystic believers who have concluded that the local mountain, Pic de Bugarach, is the ideal location to weather the transformative events of 2012. In 2011, the local mayor, Jean-Pierre Delord, began voicing fears to the international press that the small town would be overwhelmed by an influx of thousands of visitors in 2012, even suggesting he may call in the army.[79][80]
[edit] Doomsday theories
[edit] Other alignments
Some people have interpreted the galactic alignment apocalyptically, claiming that when it occurs, it will somehow create a combined gravitational effect between the Sun and the supermassive black hole at the center of our galaxy (known as Sagittarius A*), thus creating havoc on Earth.[87] Apart from the fact noted above that the "galactic alignment" already happened in 1998, the Sun's apparent path through the zodiac as seen from Earth does not take it near the true galactic center, but rather several degrees above it.[55] Even if this were not the case, Sagittarius A* is 30,000 light years from Earth, and would have to be more than 6 million times closer to cause any gravitational disruption to Earth's Solar System.[88][89] This reading of Jenkins's theories was included on the History Channel documentary, Decoding the Past. However, Jenkins has complained of the fact that a science fiction writer co-authored the documentary, and went on to characterize it as "45 minutes of unabashed doomsday hype and the worst kind of inane sensationalism".[90]Some believers in a 2012 doomsday have used the term "galactic alignment" to describe a very different phenomenon proposed by some scientists to explain a pattern in mass extinctions supposedly observed in the fossil record.[91] According to this hypothesis, mass extinctions are not random, but recur every 26 million years. To account for this, it suggests that vertical oscillations made by the Sun as it orbits the galactic center cause it to regularly pass through the galactic plane. When the Sun's orbit takes it outside the galactic plane which bisects the galactic disc, the influence of the galactic tide is weaker. However, when re-entering the galactic disc—as it does every 20–25 million years—it comes under the influence of the far stronger "disc tides", which, according to mathematical models, increase the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner Solar System by a factor of 4, thus leading to a massive increase in the likelihood of a devastating comet impact.[92] However, this "alignment" takes place over tens of millions of years, and could never be timed to an exact date.[93] Evidence shows that the Sun passed through the plane bisecting the galactic disc only three million years ago and is now moving farther above it.[94]
A third suggested alignment is some sort of planetary conjunction occurring on December 21, 2012. However, there will be no alignment of planets on that date.[95] Multi-planet alignments did occur in both 2000 and 2010, each with no ill result for the Earth.[96] Jupiter is the largest planet in the Solar System; larger than all other planets combined. When Jupiter is near opposition, the Earth experiences less than 1% the gravitational force it feels daily from the Moon.[97]
[edit] Geomagnetic reversal
Another idea tied to 2012 involves a geomagnetic reversal (often incorrectly referred to as a pole shift by proponents), possibly triggered by a massive solar flare, that would release an energy equal to 100 billion atomic bombs.[98] This belief is supposedly supported by observations that the Earth's magnetic field is weakening,[99] which could precede a reversal of the north and south magnetic poles.Critics, however, claim that geomagnetic reversals take up to 7,000 years to complete, and do not start on any particular date.[100] Furthermore, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now predicts that the solar maximum will peak in May 2013, not 2012, and that it will be fairly weak, with a below-average number of sunspots.[101] In any case, there is no scientific evidence linking a solar maximum to a geomagnetic reversal, which is driven by forces entirely within the Earth.[102] Instead, a solar maximum would be mostly notable for its effects on satellite and cellular phone communications.[103] David Morrison attributes the rise of the solar storm idea to physicist and science popularizer Michio Kaku, who claimed in an interview with Fox News that a solar peak in 2012 could be disastrous for orbiting satellites.[81]
[edit] Planet X/Nibiru
Main article: Nibiru collision
Some proponents of doomsday in 2012 claim that a planet called Planet X, or Nibiru, will collide with or pass by Earth in that year. This idea, which has appeared in various forms since 1995, initially predicted Doomsday in May, 2003, but proponents later abandoned that date after it passed without incident.[104] The idea originated from claims of channeling of alien beings and has been widely ridiculed.[104][105] Astronomers have calculated that such an object so close to Earth would be visible to anyone looking up at the night sky.[104][edit] Other catastrophes
Also, the 2012 date has been loosely tied to the long-running concept of the Photon Belt, which predicts a form of interaction between Earth and Alcyone, the largest star of the Pleiades cluster.[107] Critics have argued that photons cannot form belts, that the Pleiades, located more than 400 light years away, could have no effect on Earth, and that the Solar System, rather than getting closer to the Pleiades, is in fact moving farther away from them.[108]
Some media outlets have tied the possibility that the red supergiant star Betelgeuse may undergo a supernova at some point in the future to the 2012 phenomenon. However, while Betelgeuse is certainly in the final stages of its life, and will die as a supernova, there is no way to predict the timing of the event to within 100,000 years.[109] To be a threat to Earth, a supernova would need to be as close as 25 light years to the Solar System. Betelgeuse is roughly 600 light years away, and so its supernova will not affect Earth.[110]
Another claim involves alien invasion. In December 2010, an article, first published in examiner.com and later referenced in the English-language edition of Pravda[111] claimed, citing a Second Digitized Sky Survey photograph as evidence, that SETI had detected three large spacecraft due to arrive at Earth in 2012.[112] Astronomer and debunker Phil Plait noted that by using the small-angle formula, one could determine that if the object in the photo was as large as claimed, it would have had to be closer to Earth than the Moon, which would mean it would already have arrived.[112]
[edit] Cultural influence
The phenomenon has produced hundreds of books, as well as hundreds of thousands of websites.[81] "Ask an Astrobiologist", a NASA public outreach website, has received over 5000 questions from the public on the subject since 2007,[107] some asking whether they should kill themselves, their children or their pets.[81] Many contemporary fictional references to the year 2012 refer to December 21 as the day of a cataclysmic event, including the bestselling book of 2009,[113] Dan Brown's The Lost Symbol.The 2009 disaster film 2012 was inspired by the phenomenon, and advance promotion prior to its release included a stealth marketing campaign in which TV spots and websites from the fictional "Institute for Human Continuity" called on people to prepare for the end of the world. As these promotions did not mention the film itself, many viewers believed them to be real and contacted astronomers in panic.[114][115] Although the campaign was heavily criticized,[81] the film became one of the most successful of its year, grossing nearly $770 million worldwide.[116]
Lars von Trier's 2011 film Melancholia features a plot in which a planet emerges from behind the Sun onto a collision course with Earth.[117] Announcing his company's purchase of the film, the head of Magnolia Pictures said in a press release, "As the 2012 apocalypse is upon us, it is time to prepare for a cinematic last supper."[118] makes reference to the phenomenon.
The phenomenon has also inspired successful pop music hits such as "2012 (It Ain't the End)" (2010) performed by Jay Sean and "Till the World Ends" (2011) performed by Britney Spears.
In 2011, the Mexico tourism board stated its intentions to use the year 2012, without its apocalyptic connotations, as a means to revive Mexico's tourism industry, which had suffered as the country gained a reputation for drug wars and kidnapping. The initiative hopes to draw on the mystical appeal of the Mayan ruins.[119]
[edit] See also
[edit] Notes
- a The number 13 plays an important role in Mesoamerican calendrics; the tzolk'in, or sacred calendar, was divided into 13 months of 20 days each. The Mayan may cycle consisted of 13 k'atuns. The reason for the number's importance is uncertain, though correlations to the phases of the moon and to the human gestation period have been suggested.[120][121]
- b The Mayan calendar, unlike the Western calendar, used a zero.[11]
- c Most Mayanist scholars, such as Mark Van Stone and Anthony Aveni, adhere to the "GMT (Goodman-Martinez-Thompson) correlation" with the Long Count, which places the start date at 11 August 3114 BC and the end date of b'ak'tun 13 at December 21, 2012.[122] This date is also the overwhelming preference of those who believe in 2012 eschatology, arguably, Van Stone suggests, because it falls on a solstice, and is thus astrologically significant. Some Mayanist scholars, such as Michael D. Coe, Linda Schele and Marc Zender, adhere to the "Lounsbury/GMT+2" correlation, which sets the start date at 13 August and the end date at December 23. Which of these is the precise correlation has yet to be conclusively settled.[123] Swedish Mayanist Carl Johan Calleman argues that the true end date is 28 October 2011.[124][125]
- d Coe's initial date was "December 24, 2011." He revised it to "11 January AD 2013" in the 1980 2nd edition of his book,[126] not settling on December 23, 2012 until the 1984 3rd edition.[127] The correlation of b'ak'tun 13 as 21 December 2012 first appeared in Table B.2 of Robert J. Sharer's 1983 revision of the 4th edition of Sylvanus Morley's book The Ancient Maya.[128]
[edit] Citations
- ^ a b Robert K. Sitler (February 2006). "The 2012 Phenomenon: New Age Appropriation of an Ancient Mayan Calendar". Novo Religio: the Journal of Alternative and Emergent Religions (Berkeley: University of California Press) 9 (3): 24–38. doi:10.1525/nr.2006.9.3.024. ISSN 1092-6690. OCLC 357082680.
- ^ a b c Sacha Defesche (2007). "'The 2012 Phenomenon': A historical and typological approach to a modern apocalyptic mythology.". skepsis. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
- ^ a b c d e G. Jeffrey MacDonald (March 27, 2007). "Does Maya calendar predict 2012 apocalypse?". USA Today. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ a b Hoopes 2011
- ^ a b Benjamin Anastas (July 1, 2007). "The Final Days" (reproduced online, at KSU). The New York Times Magazine (New York: The New York Times Company): Section 6, p.48. Retrieved May 18, 2009.
- ^ Stuart 2011
- ^ David Webster (September 25, 2007). "The Uses and Abuses of the Ancient Maya" (PDF). The Emergence of the Modern World Conference, Otzenhausen, Germany: Penn State University. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ "2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?". NASA. 2009. Retrieved February 26, 2011.
- ^ de Lara and Justeson 2006
- ^ Andrew K. Scherer (2007). "Population structure of the classic period Maya". American Journal of Physical Anthropology 132 (3): 367–380. doi:10.1002/ajpa.20535. PMID 17205548.
- ^ a b Joyce Marcus (1976). "The Origins of Mesoamerican Writing". Annual Review of Anthropology 5: 25–67. JSTOR 2949303.
- ^ Schele and Freidel 1990 246
- ^ Vincent H. Malmström (March 19, 2003). "The Astronomical Insignificance of Maya Date 13.0.0.0.0" (PDF). Dartmouth College. p. 2. Retrieved May 26, 2009.
- ^ Severin 1981 75
- ^ Schele and Freidel 1990 429–430
- ^ Freidel, Schele and Parker 1993 63
- ^ Aveni, 2009 46
- ^ Makemson 1957 4
- ^ Coe 1966 149
- ^ Carrasco 1990 39; Gossen and Leventhal 1993 191.
- ^ Milbrath 1999 4
- ^ a b c d e Mark Van Stone. "2012 FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)". FAMSI. Retrieved March 2, 2010.
- ^ a b Schele and Freidel 1990 81–82, 430–431
- ^ Ryan Rivet (2008). "The Sky Is Not Falling". Tulane University. Retrieved February 26, 2011.
- ^ a b c Hoopes 2011
- ^ Förstemann 1906:264
- ^ Morley 1915:32
- ^ a b Stephen Houston; and David Stuart (1996). "Of gods, glyphs and kings: divinity and rulership among the Classic Maya". Antiquity (Cambridge, UK: Antiquity Publications) 70 (268): 289–312. ISSN 0003-598X. OCLC 206025348.
- ^ Gronemeyer and MacLeod 2010 8
- ^ Eberl and Prager 2005 28
- ^ Eberl and Prager 2005 29–30, citing Hieroglyphic Stairway E7-H12 at Palenque, plate 104 in Karl Herbert Mayer, Maya Monuments: Sculptures of Unknown Provenance, Supplement 4 [in which the Sajal Niil is depicted in his costume], and Stele 1 from La Mar.
- ^ Gronemeyer and MacLeod 2010 11, 36–37
- ^ a b MacLeod 2011
- ^ Gronemeyer and MacLeod 2010 24, 35
- ^ Stephen Houston (2008). "What Will Not Happen in 2012". Maya Decipherment. Retrieved May 29, 2011.
- ^ a b Schele 1992 93–95
- ^ Schele and Freidel 1990 430
- ^ Aveni 2009 49
- ^ Carlson & Van Stone 2011
- ^ Aveni 2009 32–33, 156–157
- ^ Aveni 2009 161
- ^ See in particular, chapter 6 ("The Great Cycle: Its Projected Beginning"), chapter 7 ("The Great Cycle – Its Projected End") and the Appendix, in Waters 1975 256–264, 265–271, 285
- ^ Argüelles 1975
- ^ a b McKenna and McKenna 1975
- ^ (the more specific date of December 21 appeared in the 1993 revision of The Invisible Landscape)(McKenna&McKenna 1993)
- ^ Philip J. Hilts, Mary Battiata (1987). "Planets Won't Attend Astronomical Celebration". New York Post. Archived from the original on May 11, 2011. Retrieved November 4, 2009.
- ^ Argüelles 1987
- ^ a b "The Great 2012 Doomsday Scare". NASA. 2009. Retrieved January 27, 2010.
- ^ Aveni 2009 17–27
- ^ Aveni 2009 83
- ^ a b "Precession". NASA. Retrieved November 3, 2009.
- ^ Spencer, 2000, pp. 115–27
- ^ Bruce McClure. "Teapot of Sagittarius points to galactic center". EarthSky. Retrieved November 3, 2009.
- ^ "What's going to happen on December 21st 2012?". Cornell University. 2006. Retrieved May 9, 2011.
- ^ a b Geoff Gaherty (2008). "Starry Night looks at doomsday". Starry Night Times. Retrieved October 23, 2009.
- ^ Mardyks 1991
- ^ Plumb 2010:59
- ^ Edmonson 1988: 119
- ^ Brian Stross. "Xibalba or Xibalbe". University of Texas. Retrieved May 18, 2009.
- ^ a b John Major Jenkins. "What is the Galactic Alignment?". alignment2012.com. Retrieved May 11, 2009.
- ^ John Major Jenkins (2005). "The Mayan Calendar and the Transformation of Consciousness". alignement2012.com. Retrieved January 26, 2010.
- ^ For an in-depth look at this subject, see Coe 1992, Miller 1993, Pinchbeck 2006
- ^ Jenkins 1998 191–206
- ^ Aveni 2009 62
- ^ John Major Jenkins. "Introduction to Maya Cosmogenesis". Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ John Major Jenkins (June 1999). "The True Alignment Zone". Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ Meeus 1997 301–303
- ^ Grofe 2011
- ^ Jenkins 2009 215
- ^ a b J. J. Aimers and P. M. Rice (2006). "Astronomy, ritual and the interpretation of Maya E-Group architectural assemblages". Ancient Mesoamerica 17 (1): 79–96. doi:10.1017/S0956536106060056.
- ^ Aveni 2009 54–55, citing Aveni and Hartung 2000
- ^ Aveni, 2009 57
- ^ a b Art Bell (May 22, 1997). "Terence McKenna with Art Bell". archive.org. Retrieved September 22, 2009.
- ^ Ralph Abraham and Terence McKenna (1983). "Dynamics of Hyperspace". Santa Cruz, California: Ralph Abraham. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
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- ^ Pinchbeck 2006
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- ^ "No end in sight for villagers". The Financial Post. 2010. Retrieved March 8, 2011.
- ^ a b c d e "David Morrison: Surviving 2012 and Other Cosmic Disasters". FORA.tv. Retrieved July 17, 2010.
- ^ "Armageddon series". The History Channel. 2008. Retrieved May 1, 2009.
- ^ Lemesurier, Derwen Publishing, 2011
- ^ "2012 Apocalypse". The Discovery Channel. 2009. Retrieved November 8, 2009.
- ^ Coe 1992 275–276.
- ^ Hancock 1995 499, ff. 27.
- ^ E. C. Krupp. "The Great 2012 Scare". Sky and Telescope. Retrieved November 11, 2009.
- ^ Sherry Seethaler (2007). "Questions answered". San Diego Union Tribune. Retrieved October 16, 2009.
- ^ Christopher Springob (March 28, 2003). "What would happen if a supermassive black hole came close to the Earth?". Cornell University. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ John Major Jenkins (July 28, 2006). "How Not to Make a 2012 Documentary". Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ "Questions Show: Alignment with the Galactic Plane, Destruction from Venus, and the Death of the Solar System". Universe Today. October 10, 2008. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ Michael Szpir. "Perturbing the Oort Cloud". American Scientist. The Scientific Research Society. Retrieved March 25, 2008.
- ^ Fraser Cain (May 11, 2009). "Galactic Plane". Universe Today. Retrieved October 29, 2009.
- ^ John N. Bahcall and Safi Bahcall (August 22, 1985). "The Sun's motion perpendicular to the galactic plane". Nature 316 (6030): 706–708. doi:10.1038/316706a0.
- ^ David Morrison (2010). "Nibiru and Doomsday 2012: Questions and Answers". NASA: Ask an Astrobiologist. Retrieved September 6, 2010.
- ^ Abby Cessna (2009). "Planetary Alignment". Universe Today. Retrieved April 19, 2011.
- ^ Phil Plait (March 5, 2011). "Good astronomy: Planetary alignments have relatively little to do with earthquakes". Bad Astronomy. Retrieved April 28, 2011.
- ^ Ian O'Neill (June 21, 2008). "2012: No Killer Solar Flare". Universe Today. Archived from 2012: No Killer Solar Flare the original on August 5, 2010. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ Nils Olsen and Mioara Mandea (May 18, 2008). "Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core". Nature Geoscience (Nature Geocscience) 1 (6): 390–394. doi:10.1038/ngeo203.
- ^ Abby Cessna. "Geomagnetic Reversal". Universe Today. Retrieved April 6, 2011.
- ^ "New Solar Cycle Prediction". NASA. Retrieved November 2, 2009.
- ^ Ian O'Neill (October 3, 2008). "2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal". Universe Today. Retrieved May 27, 2009.
- ^ Tony Phillips (March 10, 2006). "Solar Storm Warning". NASA. Retrieved October 14, 2009.
- ^ a b c David Morrison (October 2008). "The Myth of Nibiru and the End of the World in 2012". Skeptical Inquirer. Retrieved April 2, 2009.
- ^ Schilling 2008 111
- ^ Chivers, Tom (September 24, 2009). "'Web-bot project' makes prophecy of 2012 apocalypse". The Daily Telegraph (London). Retrieved October 4, 2009.
- ^ a b David Morrison. "NASA Ask An Astrobiologist". NASA. Retrieved April 11, 2011.
- ^ "Is the earth about to enter the Photon Belt, causing the end of life as we know it?". The Straight Dope. 1996. Retrieved April 19, 2011.
- ^ Phil Plait (2011). "Betelgeuse and 2012". Bad Astronomy. Retrieved May 1, 2011.
- ^ Phil Plait (2011). "Is Betelgeuse about to blow?". Bad Astronomy. Retrieved May 1, 2011.
- ^ Seth Shostak (2011). "NO Spaceships Headed for Earth". SETI. Retrieved January 7, 2011.
- ^ a b Phil Plait (2011). "Giant spaceships to attack December 2012?". Discover Magazine. Retrieved January 7, 2011.
- ^ "Best-Selling Books of 2009". marketingcharts.com. 2010. Retrieved May 10, 2011.
- ^ Mike Brown (2009). "Sony Pictures and the End of the World". Mike Brown's Planets. Retrieved June 7, 2009.
- ^ Connor, Steve (October 17, 2009). "Relax, the end isn't nigh". The Independent (London). Retrieved October 20, 2009.
- ^ "2009 Worldwide Grosses". Box Office Mojo. Retrieved February 25, 2010.
- ^ Andrea Magrath (2011). "Sunny Kirsten Dunst is picture perfect at the Cannes photocall for her provocative new film Melancholia". Retrieved May 27, 2011.
- ^ Borys Kit (2011). "Magnolia Picks Up North American Rights to Lars von Trier's 'Melancholia'". Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved May 27, 2011.
- ^ Hugo Martín (2011). "Mexico aims to make end of Maya calendar a starter for tourism". The Los Angeles Times. Retrieved October 15, 2011.
- ^ Rice, 2007 44, 59
- ^ Duncan McLean Earl and Dean R Snow. "The Origin of the 260-day calendar: the gestation hypothesis reconsidered in light of its use among the Quiche Maya". State University of New York at Albany. Retrieved March 20, 2011.
- ^ Peter Matthews. "Who's Who in the Maya World". famsi.org. Retrieved April 13, 2011.
- ^ Mark Van Stone. "Questions and comments". FAMSI. Retrieved September 6, 2010.
- ^ Johan Calleman - Energy Cycles and 2012 Ric Thompson, Healthy, Wealthy and Wise.com, Interview, June 2009. Retrieved August 2011.
- ^ 9th wave of the Mayan Calendar ending on 28th October 2011 - Dr Calleman Lilou Mace interview, June 7, 2011
- ^ Coe 1980 151
- ^ Coe 1984. This correlation, which differs two days from Sharer's, is repeated in subsequent editions of Coe's book
- ^ Morley 1983 603, Table B2
[edit] References
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Fermi paradox
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the absence of evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence. For the type of estimation problem, see Fermi problem. For the music album, see Fermi Paradox (album). For the short story, see The Fermi Paradox Is Our Business Model.
The age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that unless the Earth is very atypical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[1] In an informal discussion in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi questioned why, if a multitude of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exists in the Milky Way galaxy, evidence such as spacecraft or probes is not seen. A more detailed examination of the implications of the topic began with a paper by Michael H. Hart in 1975, and it is sometimes referred to as the Fermi–Hart paradox.[2] Other common names for the same phenomenon are Fermi's question ("Where are they?"), the Fermi Problem, the Great Silence,[3][4][5][6][7] and silentium universi[7][8] (Latin for "the silence of the universe"; the misspelling silencium universi is also common).
There have been attempts to resolve the Fermi paradox by locating evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations, along with proposals that such life could exist without human knowledge. Counterarguments suggest that intelligent extraterrestrial life does not exist or occurs so rarely or briefly that humans will never make contact with it.
Starting with Hart, a great deal of effort has gone into developing scientific theories about, and possible models of, extraterrestrial life, and the Fermi paradox has become a theoretical reference point in much of this work. The problem has spawned numerous scholarly works addressing it directly, while questions that relate to it have been addressed in fields as diverse as astronomy, biology, ecology, and philosophy. The emerging field of astrobiology has brought an interdisciplinary approach to the Fermi paradox and the question of extraterrestrial life.
[edit] Basis
The Fermi paradox is a conflict between an argument of scale and probability and a lack of evidence. A more complete definition could be stated thus:The apparent size and age of the universe suggest that many technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations ought to exist.The first aspect of the paradox, "the argument by scale", is a function of the raw numbers involved: there are an estimated 200–400 billion[9] (2–4 ×1011) stars in the Milky Way and 70 sextillion (7×1022) in the visible universe.[10] Even if intelligent life occurs on only a minuscule percentage of planets around these stars, there might still be a great number of civilizations extant in the Milky Way galaxy alone. This argument also assumes the mediocrity principle, which states that Earth is not special, but merely a typical planet, subject to the same laws, effects, and likely outcomes as any other world.
However, this hypothesis seems inconsistent with the lack of observational evidence to support it.
The second cornerstone of the Fermi paradox is a rejoinder to the argument by scale: given intelligent life's ability to overcome scarcity, and its tendency to colonize new habitats, it seems likely that at least some civilizations would be technologically advanced, seek out new resources in space and then colonize first their own star system and subsequently the surrounding star systems. Since there is no conclusive or certifiable evidence on Earth or elsewhere in the known universe of other intelligent life after 13.7 billion years of the universe's history, we have the conflict requiring a resolution. Some examples of which may be that intelligent life is rarer than we think, or that our assumptions about the general behavior of intelligent species are flawed.
The Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways. The first is, "Why are no aliens or their artifacts physically here?" If interstellar travel is possible, even the "slow" kind nearly within the reach of Earth technology, then it would only take from 5 million to 50 million years to colonize the galaxy.[11] This is a relatively small amount of time on a geological scale, let alone a cosmological one. Since there are many stars older than the Sun, or since intelligent life might have evolved earlier elsewhere, the question then becomes why the galaxy has not been colonized already. Even if colonization is impractical or undesirable to all alien civilizations, large-scale exploration of the galaxy is still possible; the means of exploration and theoretical probes involved are discussed extensively below. However, no signs of either colonization or exploration have been generally acknowledged.
The argument above may not hold for the universe as a whole, since travel times may well explain the lack of physical presence on Earth of alien inhabitants of far away galaxies. However, the question then becomes "Why do we see no signs of intelligent life?" since a sufficiently advanced civilization[Note 1] could potentially be observable over a significant fraction of the size of the observable universe.[12] Even if such civilizations are rare, the scale argument indicates they should exist somewhere at some point during the history of the universe, and since they could be detected from far away over a considerable period of time, many more potential sites for their origin are within range of our observation. However, no incontrovertible signs of such civilizations have been detected.
It is unclear which version of the paradox is stronger.[Note 2]
[edit] Name
In 1950, while working at Los Alamos National Laboratory, the physicist Enrico Fermi had a casual conversation while walking to lunch with colleagues Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller and Herbert York. The men discussed a recent spate of UFO reports and an Alan Dunn cartoon[13] facetiously blaming the disappearance of municipal trashcans on marauding aliens. They then had a more serious discussion regarding the chances of humans observing faster-than-light travel by some material object within the next ten years, which Teller put at one in a million, but Fermi put closer to one in ten. The conversation shifted to other subjects, until during lunch Fermi suddenly exclaimed, "Where are they?" (alternatively, "Where is everybody?")[14] One participant recollects that Fermi then made a series of rapid calculations using estimated figures (Fermi was known for his ability to make good estimates from first principles and minimal data, see Fermi problem.) According to this account, he then concluded that Earth should have been visited long ago and many times over.[14][15][edit] Drake equation
Main article: Drake equation
While numerous theories and principles are related to the Fermi paradox, the most closely related is the Drake equation.The equation was formulated by Dr. Frank Drake in 1961, a decade after the objections raised by Enrico Fermi, in an attempt to find a systematic means to evaluate the numerous probabilities involved in alien life. The speculative equation factors in: the rate of star formation in the galaxy; the fraction of stars with planets and the number per star that are habitable; the fraction of those planets which develop life, the fraction of intelligent life, and the further fraction of detectable technological intelligent life; and finally the length of time such civilizations are detectable. The fundamental problem is that the last four terms (fraction of planets with life, odds life becomes intelligent, odds intelligent life becomes detectable, and detectable lifetime of civilizations) are completely unknown. We have only one example, rendering statistical estimates impossible, and even the example we have is subject to a strong anthropic bias.
A deeper objection is that the very form of the Drake equation assumes that civilizations arise and then die out within their original solar systems. If interstellar colonization is possible, then this assumption is invalid, and the equations of population dynamics would apply instead.[16]
The Drake equation has been used by both optimists and pessimists with wildly differing results. Dr. Carl Sagan, using optimistic numbers, suggested as many as one million communicating civilizations in the Milky Way in 1966, though he later suggested that the actual number could be far smaller. Frank Tipler and John D Barrow used pessimistic numbers and concluded that the average number of civilizations in a galaxy is much less than one.[17][Note 3] Frank Drake himself has commented that the Drake equation is unlikely to settle the Fermi paradox; instead it is just a way of "organizing our ignorance" on the subject.[18]
[edit] Empirical resolution attempts
One obvious way to resolve the Fermi paradox would be to find conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence. Efforts to find such evidence have been made since 1960, and several are ongoing as of 2011.[19] As human beings do not possess interstellar travel capability, such searches are being remotely carried out at great distances and rely on analysis of very subtle evidence. This limits possible discoveries to civilizations which alter their environment in a detectable way, or produce effects that are observable at a distance, such as radio emissions. It is very unlikely that non-technological civilizations will be detectable from Earth in the near future.One difficulty in searching is avoiding an overly anthropocentric viewpoint. Conjecture on the type of evidence likely to be found often focuses on the types of activities that humans have performed, or likely would perform given more advanced technology. Intelligent aliens might avoid these "expected" activities, or perform activities totally novel to humans.
[edit] Mainstream astronomy and SETI
There are two ways that astronomy might find evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization. One is that conventional astronomers, studying stars, planets, and galaxies, might serendipitously observe some phenomenon that cannot be explained without positing an intelligent civilization as the source. This has been suspected several times. Pulsars, when first discovered, were called LGMs (Little Green Men), because of the precise repetition of their pulses (they rival the best atomic clocks). Likewise Seyfert galaxies were suspected to be industrial accidents[20] because their enormous and directed energy output had no initial explanation. Eventually, natural explanations not involving intelligent life have been found for all such observations to date. Specifically, pulsars are now attributed to neutron stars, and Seyfert galaxies to an end-on view of the accretion onto the black holes, but the possibility of discovery remains.[21] Proposed examples include asteroid mining that would change the appearance of debris disks around stars[22] or large-scale use of solar power changing the light curve of planets measured near eclipse.[23]The other way astronomy might settle the Fermi paradox is through a search specifically dedicated to finding evidence of life.
[edit] Radio emissions
Further information: SETI, Project Ozma, Project Cyclops, Project Phoenix (SETI), SERENDIP, and Allen Telescope Array
Therefore, the careful searching of radio emissions from space for non-natural signals may lead to the detection of alien civilizations. Such signals could be either "accidental" by-products of a civilization, or deliberate attempts to communicate, such as the Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence's Arecibo message. A number of astronomers and observatories have attempted and are attempting to detect such evidence, mostly through the SETI organization, although other approaches, such as optical SETI, also exist.
Several decades of SETI analysis have not revealed any main sequence stars with unusually bright or meaningfully repetitive radio emissions, although there have been several candidate signals. On August 15, 1977 the "Wow! signal" was picked up by The Big Ear radio telescope. However, the Big Ear only looks at each point on the sky for 72 seconds, and re-examinations of the same spot have found nothing. In 2003, Radio source SHGb02+14a was isolated by SETI@home analysis, although it has largely been discounted by further study. There are numerous technical assumptions underlying SETI that may cause human beings to miss radio emissions with present search techniques; these are discussed below.
[edit] Direct planetary observation
Direct evidence for the existence of life may eventually be observable, such as the detection of biotic signature gases (such as methane and oxygen)—or even the industrial air pollution of a technologically advanced civilization—in an exoplanet's atmosphere by means of spectrographic analysis.[26] With improvements in our observational capabilities, it may eventually even be possible to detect direct evidence such as that which humanity produces (see right).
However, exoplanets are rarely directly observed (the first claim to have done so was made in 2004[27]); rather, their existence is usually inferred from the effects they have on the star(s) they orbit. This means that usually only the mass and orbit of an exoplanet can be deduced. This information, along with the stellar classification of its sun, and educated guesses as to its composition (usually based on the mass of the planet, and its distance from its sun), allows only for rough approximations of the planetary environment.
Prior to 2009, methods for exoplanet detection were not likely to detect life-bearing Earth-like worlds. Methods such as gravitational microlensing can detect the presence of "small" worlds, potentially even smaller than the Earth, but can only detect such worlds for very brief moments of time, and no follow-up is possible. Other methods such as radial velocity, astrometry, and the transit method allow prolonged observations of exoplanet effects, but only work with worlds that are many times the mass of Earth, at least when performed while looking through the atmosphere. These seem unlikely candidates to harbor Earth-like life. However, exoplanet detection and classification is a very active sub-discipline in astronomy, with 424 such planets being detected between 1988 and 2010,[28] and the first possibly terrestrial planet discovered within a star's habitable zone being found in 2007.[29] New refinements in exoplanet detection methods, and use of existing methods from space, (such as the Kepler Mission, launched in 2009) are expected to detect and characterize terrestrial-size planets, and determine if they are within the habitable zones of their stars. Such observational refinements may allow us to better gauge how common potentially habitable worlds are. Using methods like the Drake equation with this data would therefore allow a much better idea of how common life in the universe might be; this would have a profound influence over the expectations behind the Fermi paradox itself.
[edit] Alien constructs
[edit] Probes, colonies, and other artifacts
Further information: Von Neumann probe and Bracewell probe
As noted, given the size and age of the universe, and the relative rapidity at which dispersion of intelligent life can in principle occur, evidence of alien colonization attempts might plausibly be discovered. Evidence of exploration not containing extraterrestrial life, such as probes and information gathering devices, may also await discovery.Some theoretical exploration techniques such as the Von Neumann probe (a self-replicating device) could exhaustively explore a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, with comparatively little investment in materials and energy relative to the results. If even a single civilization in the Milky Way attempted this, such probes could spread throughout the entire galaxy. Evidence of such probes might be found in the solar system—perhaps in the asteroid belt where raw materials would be plentiful and easily accessed.[30]
Another possibility for contact with an alien probe—one that would be trying to find human beings—is an alien Bracewell probe. Such a device would be an autonomous space probe whose purpose is to seek out and communicate with alien civilizations (as opposed to Von Neumann probes, which are usually described as purely exploratory). These were proposed as an alternative to carrying a slow speed-of-light dialogue between vastly distant neighbours. Rather than contending with the long delays a radio dialogue would suffer, a probe housing an artificial intelligence would seek out an alien civilization to carry on a close range communication with the discovered civilization. The findings of such a probe would still have to be transmitted to the home civilization at light speed, but an information-gathering dialogue could be conducted in real time.[31]
Since the 1950s, direct exploration has been carried out on a small fraction of the solar system and no evidence that it has ever been visited by alien colonists, or probes, has been uncovered. Detailed exploration of areas of the solar system where resources would be plentiful—such as the asteroids, the Kuiper belt, the Oort cloud and the planetary ring systems—may yet produce evidence of alien exploration, though these regions are vast and difficult to investigate. There have been preliminary efforts in this direction in the form of the SETA and SETV projects to search for extraterrestrial artifacts or other evidence of extraterrestrial visitation within the solar system.[32] There have also been attempts to signal, attract, or activate Bracewell probes in Earth's local vicinity, including by scientists Robert Freitas and Francisco Valdes.[33] Many of the projects that fall under this umbrella are considered "fringe" science by astronomers and none of the projects has located any artifacts.
Should alien artifacts be discovered, even here on Earth, they may not be recognizable as such. The products of an alien mind and an advanced alien technology might not be perceptible or recognizable as artificial constructs. Exploratory devices in the form of bio-engineered life forms created through synthetic biology would presumably disintegrate after a point, leaving no evidence; an alien information gathering system based on molecular nanotechnology could be all around us at this very moment, completely undetected. The same might be true of civilizations that actively hide their investigations from us, for possible reasons described further in this article. Also, Clarke's third law suggests that an alien civilization well in advance of humanity's might have means of investigation that are not yet conceivable to human beings.
[edit] Advanced stellar-scale artifacts
Since then, several other theoretical stellar-scale megastructures have been proposed, but the central idea remains that a highly advanced civilization—Type II or greater on the Kardashev scale—could alter its environment enough as to be detectable from interstellar distances.
However, such constructs may be more difficult to detect than originally thought. Dyson spheres might have different emission spectra depending on the desired internal environment; life based on high-temperature reactions may require a high temperature environment, with resulting "waste radiation" in the visible spectrum, not the infrared.[35] Additionally, a variant of the Dyson sphere has been proposed which would be difficult to observe from any great distance; a Matrioshka brain is a series of concentric spheres, each radiating less energy per area than its inner neighbour. The outermost sphere of such a structure could be close to the temperature of the interstellar background radiation, and thus be all but invisible.
There have been some preliminary attempts to find evidence of the existence of Dyson spheres or other large Type-II or Type-III Kardashev scale artifacts that would alter the spectra of their core stars.[36][37] These surveys have not located anything yet, though they are still incomplete. Similarly, direct observation of thousands of galaxies has shown no explicit evidence of artificial construction or modifications.
[edit] Explaining the paradox theoretically
Certain theoreticians accept that the apparent absence of evidence proves the absence of extraterrestrials and attempt to explain why. Others offer possible frameworks in which the silence may be explained without ruling out the possibility of such life, including assumptions about extraterrestrial behaviour and technology. Each of these hypothesized explanations is essentially an argument for decreasing the value of one or more of the terms in the Drake equation. The arguments are not, in general, mutually exclusive. For example, it could be both that life is rare, and technical civilizations are short lived, or many other combinations of the explanations below.[38][edit] Few, if any, other civilizations currently exist
One explanation is that the human civilization is alone (or very nearly so) in the galaxy. Several theories along these lines have been proposed, explaining why intelligent life might be either very rare, or very short lived. Implications of these hypotheses are examined as the Great Filter.[5][edit] No other civilizations have arisen
See also: Rare Earth hypothesis
Those who believe that extraterrestrial intelligent life does not exist argue that the conditions needed for life—or at least complex life—to evolve are rare or even unique to Earth. This is known as the Rare Earth hypothesis, which attempts to resolve the Fermi paradox by rejecting the mediocrity principle, and asserting that Earth is not typical, but unusual or even unique. While a unique Earth has historically been assumed on philosophical or religious grounds, the Rare Earth Hypothesis uses quantifiable and statistical arguments to argue that multicellular life is exceedingly rare in the universe because Earth-like planets are themselves exceedingly rare and/or many improbable coincidences have converged to make complex life on Earth possible.[39] It is possible that complex life may evolve through other mechanisms than those found specifically here on Earth,[39] but the fact that in the history of life on the Earth only one species has developed a civilization to the point of being capable of space flight and radio technology; or, more basically, abstract ideas such as music, art, or religion lends more credence to the idea of technologically advanced civilizations being rare in the universe.For example, the emergence of intelligence may have been an evolutionary accident. Geoffrey Miller proposes that human intelligence is the result of runaway sexual selection, which takes unpredictable directions. Steven Pinker, in his book How the Mind Works, cautions that the idea that evolution of life (once it has reached a certain minimum complexity) is bound to produce intelligent beings, relies on the fallacy of the "ladder of evolution": As evolution does not strive for a goal but just happens, it uses the adaptation most useful for a given ecological niche, and the fact that, on Earth, this led to language-capable sentience only once so far may suggest that this adaptation is only rarely a good choice and hence by no means a sure endpoint of the evolution of a tree of life.
Another theory along these lines is that even if the conditions needed for life might be common in the universe, that the formation of life itself, a complex array of molecules that are capable simultaneously of reproduction, of extraction of base components from the environment, and of obtaining energy in a form that life can use to maintain the reaction (or the initial abiogenesis on a potential life-bearing planet), might ultimately be very rare.
Additionally, in the nondirectional meandering from initial life to humans, other low-probability happenings may have been the transition from prokaryotic cells to eukaryotic cells (with separate nucleus, organelles, specialization, and a cytoskeleton allowing the cell to take on different shapes) and the transition from single-cellular life to multicellular life, which was recorded in the Cambrian Explosion of 530 mya when significant numbers of organisms had evolved hard body parts, although multicellular life perhaps first started to evolve a couple of hundred million years before that. For most of Earth's history, there have only been single-celled creatures.
And there are many other potential branching points. For example, perhaps the transition from ocean creatures to land-dwelling creatures crucially depends on an unusually large moon and significant tides.
It is also possible that intelligence is common, but industrial civilization is not. For example, the rise of industrialism on Earth was driven by the presence of convenient energy sources such as fossil fuels. If such energy sources are rare or nonexistent elsewhere, then it may be far more difficult for an intelligent race to advance technologically to the point where we could communicate with them. There may also be other unique factors on which our civilization is dependent. Or, on a water world, where the intelligent creatures are something like dolphins, it may be difficult to build fire and forge metals.
Another possibility is that Earth is the first planet in the Milky Way on which industrial civilization has arisen.[40] However, critics note that according to current understanding, many Earth-like planets were created many billions of years prior to Earth, so this explanation requires repudiation of the mediocrity principle.[41]
Insofar as the Rare Earth Hypothesis privileges life on Earth and its process of formation, it is a variant of the anthropic principle. The variant of the anthropic principle states the universe seems uniquely suited towards developing human intelligence. This philosophical stance opposes not only the mediocrity principle, but also the wider Copernican principle, which suggests there is no privileged location in the universe.
Opponents dismiss both Rare Earth and the anthropic principle as tautological—if a condition must exist in the universe for human life to arise, then the universe must already meet that condition, as human life exists—and as an unimaginative argument. According to this analysis, the Rare Earth hypothesis confuses a description of how life on Earth arose with a uniform conclusion of how life must arise.[42] While the probability of the specific conditions on Earth being widely replicated is low, we do not know what complex life may require in order to evolve.[43][44]
[edit] It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself
See also: Doomsday argument
This is the argument that technological civilizations may usually or invariably destroy themselves before or shortly after developing radio or space flight technology. Possible means of annihilation include nuclear war, biological warfare or accidental contamination, nanotechnological catastrophe, ill-advised physics experiments,[Note 4] a badly programmed super-intelligence, or a Malthusian catastrophe after the deterioration of a planet's ecosphere. This general theme is explored both in fiction and in mainstream scientific theorizing.[45] Indeed, there are probabilistic arguments which suggest that human extinction may occur sooner rather than later. In 1966 Sagan and Shklovskii suggested that technological civilizations will either tend to destroy themselves within a century of developing interstellar communicative capability or master their self-destructive tendencies and survive for billion-year timescales.[46] Self-annihilation may also be viewed in terms of thermodynamics: insofar as life is an ordered system that can sustain itself against the tendency to disorder, the "external transmission" or interstellar communicative phase may be the point at which the system becomes unstable and self-destructs.[47]From a Darwinian perspective, self-destruction would be a paradoxical outcome of evolutionary success. The evolutionary psychology that developed during the competition for scarce resources over the course of human evolution has left the species subject to aggressive, instinctual drives. These compel humanity to consume resources, extend longevity, and to reproduce—in part, the very motives that led to the development of technological society. It seems likely that intelligent extraterrestrial life would evolve in a similar fashion and thus face the same possibility of self-destruction. And yet, to provide a good answer to Fermi's Question, self-destruction by technological species would have to be a near universal occurrence.
This argument does not require the civilization to entirely self-destruct, only to become once again non-technological. In other ways it could persist and even thrive according to evolutionary standards, which postulate producing offspring as the sole goal of life—not "progress", be it in terms of technology or even intelligence.
[edit] It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy others
See also: technological singularity and Von Neumann probe
Another possibility is that an intelligent species beyond a certain point of technological capability will destroy other intelligence as it appears, as is exemplified by the theorised extermination of Neanderthals by early man. The idea that something, or someone, is destroying intelligent life in the universe has been well explored in science fiction[Note 5] and scientific literature.[3] A species might undertake such extermination out of expansionist motives, paranoia, or simple aggression. In 1981, cosmologist Edward Harrison argued that such behavior would be an act of prudence: an intelligent species that has overcome its own self-destructive tendencies might view any other species bent on galactic expansion as a kind of virus.[48] It has also been suggested that a successful alien species would be a superpredator, as is Homo sapiens.[49]This hypothesis requires at least one civilization to have arisen in the past, and the first civilization would not have faced this problem.[50] However, it could still be that Earth is alone now. Like exploration, the extermination of other civilizations might be carried out with self-replicating spacecraft. Under such a scenario,[Note 5] even if a civilization that created such machines were to disappear, the probes could outlive their creators, destroying civilizations far into the future.
If true, this argument reduces the number of visible civilizations in two ways—by destroying some civilizations, and forcing others to remain quiet, under fear of discovery (see They choose not to interact with us) so we would see no signs of them.
[edit] Life is periodically destroyed by naturally occurring events
On Earth, there have been numerous major extinction events that destroyed the majority of complex species alive at the time. The extinction of the dinosaurs is the best known example. These are believed to be caused by events such as impact from a large meteorite, massive volcanic eruptions, or astronomical events such as gamma ray bursts.[51] It may be the case that such extinction events are common throughout the universe and periodically destroy intelligent life (or at least destroy their civilizations) before the species is able to develop the technology to communicate with other species.[52][edit] Human beings were created alone
Religious and philosophical speculation about extraterrestrial intelligent life long predates modern scientific inquiry into the subject. The Greek philosopher Epicurus (4th century BC) suggested that there may be other inhabited worlds. Some religious thinkers, including the Jewish rationalist commentator Rabbi Hasdai Crescas (c. 1340–1410/1411) and the Christian philosopher Nicholas of Cusa (1401–1464), also put forward their views of the possibility of such extraterrestrial intelligence. On the other hand, some strains within Western religious traditions claim that human beings are unique in the divine plan and counsel against belief in intelligent life on other worlds.[53]Religious reasons for doubting the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life resemble some forms of the Rare Earth Hypothesis. The argument here would be a teleological form of the strong anthropic principle: the universe was designed for the express purpose of creating human (and only human) intelligence.[54] This argument presupposes that a prior advanced intelligence existed in order to create human life, which might pose the question whether that intelligence was the only one to exist before it created us, but the perspective is a philosophical and abstract one.
[edit] Inflation theory and the Youngness Argument
Cosmologist Alan Guth proposed a multi-verse solution to the Fermi Paradox. In this theory, using the synchronous gauge probability distribution, young universes exceedingly outnumber older ones (by a factor of e1037 for every second of age). Therefore, averaged over all universes, universes with civilizations will almost always have just one, the first to develop. However, Guth notes "Perhaps this argument explains why SETI has not found any signals from alien civilizations, but I find it more plausible that it is merely a symptom that the synchronous gauge probability distribution is not the right one."[55] Notably, however, in the interest of this topic, SETI received at least one questionably intelligent signal known as the Wow! signal in 1977.[edit] They do exist, but we see no evidence
It may be that technological extraterrestrial civilizations exist, but that human beings cannot communicate with them because of constraints: problems of scale or of technology; because they do not wish to communicate or their nature is simply too alien for meaningful communication, or perhaps even be recognized as technology.[edit] Communication is impossible due to problems of scale
See also: Relativity of simultaneity
[edit] Intelligent civilizations are too far apart in space or time
The problem of distance is compounded by the fact that timescales affording a "window of opportunity" for detection or contact might be quite small. Advanced civilizations may periodically arise and fall throughout our galaxy, but this may be such a rare event, relatively speaking, that the odds of two or more such civilizations existing at the same time are low. There may have been intelligent civilizations in the galaxy before the emergence of intelligence on Earth, and there may be intelligent civilizations after its extinction, but it is possible that human beings are the only intelligent civilization in existence now. The term "now" is somewhat complicated by the finite speed of light and the nature of spacetime under relativity. Assuming that an extraterrestrial intelligence is not able to travel to our vicinity at faster-than-light speeds, in order to detect an intelligence 1,000 light-years distant, that intelligence will need to have been active 1,000 years ago. Strictly speaking, only the portions of the universe lying within the past light cone of Earth need be considered, since any civilizations outside it could not be detected.
A related argument holds that other civilizations exist, and are transmitting and exploring, but their signals and probes simply have not arrived yet.[58] However, critics have noted that this is unlikely, since it requires that humanity's advancement has occurred at a very special point in time, while the Milky Way is in transition from empty to full. This is a tiny fraction of the life of a galaxy under ordinary assumptions and calculations resulting from them, so the likelihood that we're in the midst of this transition is considered low in the paradox.[59] Work on the theory of Neocatastrophism, wherein galactic and even super-galactic dynamics are seen as possibly frequently injurious to extant biospheres in a way that is roughly analogous to the way geological and climatological catastrophes have occasionally set back biological developments on Earth, might be given as a partial, if not full, resolution to the paradox, as advanced species might well be fragile to major events at a pace that would argue against a short transition.
[edit] It is too expensive to spread physically throughout the galaxy
Many assumptions about the ability of an alien culture to colonize other stars are based on the idea that interstellar travel is technologically feasible. While the current understanding of physics rules out the possibility of faster than light travel, it appears that there are no major theoretical barriers to the construction of "slow" interstellar ships. This idea underlies the concept of the Von Neumann probe and the Bracewell probe as evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence.It is possible, however, that present scientific knowledge cannot properly gauge the feasibility and costs of such interstellar colonization. Theoretical barriers may not yet be understood and the cost of materials and energy for such ventures may be so high as to make it unlikely that any civilization could afford to attempt it. Even if interstellar travel and colonization are possible, they may be difficult, leading to a colonization model based on percolation theory.[60] Colonization efforts may not occur as an unstoppable rush, but rather as an uneven tendency to "percolate" outwards, within an eventual slowing and termination of the effort given the enormous costs involved and the fact that colonies will inevitably develop a culture and civilization of their own. Colonization may thus occur in "clusters," with large areas remaining uncolonized at any one time.
A similar argument holds that interstellar physical travel may be possible, but is much more expensive than interstellar communication. Furthermore, to an advanced civilization, travel itself may be replaced by communication, through mind uploading and similar technologies.[61] Therefore the first civilization may have physically explored or colonized the galaxy, but subsequent civilizations find it cheaper, faster, and easier to travel and get information through contacting existing civilizations rather than physically exploring or traveling themselves. In this scenario, since there is little or no physical travel, and directed communications are hard to see except to the intended receiver, there could be many technical and interacting civilizations with few signs visible across interstellar distances.
[edit] Human beings have not been searching long enough
Humanity's ability to detect and comprehend intelligent extraterrestrial life has existed for only a very brief period—from 1937 onwards, if the invention of the radio telescope is taken as the dividing line—and Homo sapiens is a geologically recent species. The whole period of modern human existence to date (about 200,000 years) is a very brief period on a cosmological scale, while radio transmissions have only been propagated since 1895. Thus it remains possible that human beings have neither been searching long enough to find other intelligences, nor been in existence long enough to be found.One million years ago there would have been no humans for any extraterrestrial emissaries to meet. For each further step back in time, there would have been increasingly fewer indications to such emissaries that intelligent life would develop on Earth. In a large and already ancient universe, a space-faring alien species may well have had many other more promising worlds to visit and revisit. Even if alien emissaries visited in more recent times, they may have been interpreted by early human cultures as supernatural entities.
This hypothesis is more plausible if alien civilizations tend to stagnate or die out, rather than expand. In addition, "the probability of a site never being visited, even [with an] infinite time limit, is a non-zero value."[62] Thus, even if intelligent life expands elsewhere, it remains statistically possible that such extraterrestrial life might never discover Earth.
[edit] Communication is impossible for technical reasons
[edit] Humans are not listening properly
There are some assumptions that underlie the SETI search programs that may cause searchers to miss signals that are present. For example, the radio searches to date would completely miss highly compressed data streams (which would be almost indistinguishable from "white noise" to anyone who did not understand the compression algorithm). Extraterrestrials might also use frequencies that scientists have decided are unlikely to carry signals, or do not penetrate our atmosphere, or use modulation strategies that are not being looked for. The signals might be at a datarate that is too fast for our electronics to handle, or too slow to be recognised as attempts at communication. "Simple" broadcast techniques might be employed, but sent from non-main sequence stars which are searched with lower priority; current programs assume that most alien life will be orbiting Sun-like stars.[63]The greatest problem is the sheer size of the radio search needed to look for signals (effectively spanning the entire visible universe), the limited amount of resources committed to SETI, and the sensitivity of modern instruments. SETI estimates, for instance, that with a radio telescope as sensitive as the Arecibo Observatory, Earth's television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable at distances up to 0.3 light years.[64] Clearly detecting an Earth type civilization at great distances is difficult. A signal is much easier to detect if the signal energy is limited to either a narrow range of frequencies (Narrowband transmissions), and/or directed at a specific part of the sky. Such signals can be detected at ranges of hundreds to tens of thousands of light-years distance.[65] However this means that detectors must be listening to an appropriate range of frequencies, and be in that region of space to which the beam is being sent. Many SETI searches, starting with the venerable Project Cyclops, go so far as to assume that extraterrestrial civilizations will be broadcasting a deliberate signal (like the Arecibo message), in order to be found.
Thus to detect alien civilizations through their radio emissions, Earth observers either need more sensitive instruments or must hope for fortuitous circumstances: that the broadband radio emissions of alien radio technology are much stronger than our own; that one of SETI's programs is listening to the correct frequencies from the right regions of space; or that aliens are sending focused transmissions such as the Arecibo message in our general direction.
[edit] Civilizations only broadcast detectable radio signals for a brief period of time
It may be that alien civilizations are detectable through their radio emissions for only a short time, reducing the likelihood of spotting them. There are two possibilities in this regard: civilizations outgrow radio through technological advance or, conversely, resource depletion cuts short the time in which a species broadcasts.The first idea, that civilizations advance beyond radio, is based in part on the "fiber optic objection": the use of high power radio with low-to-medium gain (i.e., non-directional) antennas for long-distance transmission is wasteful of spectrum, yet this "waste" is precisely what makes these systems conspicuous at interstellar distances. Humans are moving to directional or guided transmission channels such as electrical cables, optical fibers, narrow-beam microwave and lasers, and conventional radio with non-directional antennas is increasingly reserved for low-power, short-range applications such as cell phones and Wi-Fi networks. These signals are far less detectable from space. Analog television, developed in the mid-twentieth century, contains strong carriers to aid reception and demodulation. Carriers are spectral lines that are very easily detected yet do not convey any information beyond their highly artificial nature. Nearly every SETI project is looking for carriers for just this reason, and UHF TV carriers are the most conspicuous and artificial signals from Earth that could be detected at interstellar distances. But advances in technology are replacing analog TV with digital television which uses spectrum more efficiently precisely by eliminating or reducing components such as carriers that make them so conspicuous. Using our own experience as an example, we could set the date of radio-visibility for Earth as December 12, 1901, when Guglielmo Marconi sent radio signals from Cornwall, England, to Newfoundland, Canada.[66] Visibility is now ending, or at least becoming orders of magnitude more difficult, as analog TV is being phased out. And so, if our experience is typical, a civilization remains radio-visible for approximately a hundred years. So a civilization may have been very visible from 1325 to 1483, but we were just not listening at that time. This is essentially the solution, "Everyone is listening, no one is sending."
More hypothetically, advanced alien civilizations evolve beyond broadcasting at all in the electromagnetic spectrum and communicate by principles of physics we don't yet understand. Some scientists have hypothesized that advanced civilizations may send neutrino signals.[67] If such signals exist they could be detectable by neutrino detectors that are now under construction.[68] If stable wormholes could be created and used for communications then interstellar broadcasts would become largely redundant. Thus it may be that other civilizations would only be detectable for a relatively short period of time between the discovery of radio and the switch to more efficient technologies.
One counter to this argument is that although broadcast communication may become difficult to detect, other uses for radio such as radar and power transmission cannot be replaced by low power technologies or fiber optics. These will potentially remain visible even after broadcast emission are replaced by less observable technology.[69]
A different argument is that resource depletion will soon result in a decline in technological capability. Human civilization has been capable of interstellar radio communication for only a few decades and is already rapidly depleting fossil fuels and confronting possible problems such as peak oil. It may only be a few more decades before energy becomes too expensive, and the necessary electronics and computers too difficult to manufacture, for us to continue the search. If the same conditions regarding energy supplies hold true for other civilizations, then radio technology may be a short-lived phenomenon. Unless two civilizations happen to be near each other and develop the ability to communicate at the same time it would be virtually impossible for any one civilization to "talk" to another.
Critics of the resource depletion argument point out that alternate energy sources exist, such as solar power, which are renewable and have enormous potential relative to technical barriers.[70] For depletion of fossil fuels to end the "technological phase" of a civilization, some form of technological regression would have to invariably occur, preventing the exploitation of renewable energy sources.
[edit] They tend to experience a technological singularity
See also: Sentience Quotient and Matrioshka brain
Another possibility is that technological civilizations invariably experience a technological singularity and attain a posthuman (or more properly, post-biological) character. Theoretical civilizations of this sort may have altered drastically enough to render communication impossible. The intelligences of a post-singularity civilization might require more information exchange than is possible through interstellar communication, for example. Or perhaps any information humanity might provide would appear elementary, and thus they do not try to communicate, any more than human beings attempt to talk to ants—even though we do ascribe a form of intelligence to them.Even more extreme forms of post-singularity have been suggested, particularly in fiction: beings that divest themselves of physical form, create massive artificial virtual environments, transfer themselves into these environments through mind uploading, and exist totally within virtual worlds, ignoring the external physical universe. Surprisingly early treatments, such as Lewis Padgett's short story Mimsy were the Borogoves (1943), suggest a migration of advanced beings out of the presently known physical universe into a different and presumably more agreeable alternative one.
A further argument, suggested by Charles Stross in Accelerando, is that although advanced virtual civilizations - possibly en route developmentally to a Matrioshka Brain - could engage in travel to other star systems, they choose not to. This is not due to a lack of curiosity, but more through a set of energy-information economic choices, whereby in an information market predicated on available solar energy and planetary matter for building more computing capacity, the most successful virtual intelligences have to remain central to the star. Energy and proximity (and therefore wireless communication bandwidth and speed) are much greater closer to the matter and energy sources of the star, and larger planets, and so to be successful requires intra-solar-system focus. In this scenario, economic incentives to travel out of the solar system are inhibited.
One version of this perspective, which makes predictions for future SETI findings of transcension "fossils" and includes a variation of the Zoo hypothesis below, has been proposed by singularity scholar John Smart.[71]
[edit] They are too alien
Another possibility is that human theoreticians have underestimated how much alien life might differ from that on Earth. Aliens may be psychologically unwilling to attempt to communicate with human beings. Perhaps human mathematics is parochial to Earth and not shared by other life,[72] though others argue this can only apply to abstract math since the math associated with physics must be similar (in results, if not in methods.)[73]Physiology might also cause a communication barrier. In Contact, Carl Sagan briefly speculated that an alien species might have a thought process orders of magnitude slower (or faster) than humans. Such a species could conceivably speak so slowly that it requires years to say even a simple phrase like "Hello". A message broadcast by that species might well seem like random background noise to humans, and therefore go undetected.
[edit] They are non-technological
It may be that at least some civilizations of intelligent beings are not technological, perhaps because it is difficult in their environment, or because they choose not to, or for other reasons yet unknown. Such civilizations would be very hard for humans to detect.[74] While there are remote sensing techniques which could perhaps detect life-bearing planets without relying on the signs of technology, none of them has any ability to tell if any detected life is intelligent. Not even any theoretical methods for doing so have been proposed, short of an actual physical visit by an astronaut or probe. This is sometimes referred to as the "algae vs. alumnae" problem.[74][edit] The evidence is being suppressed
It is theoretically possible that SETI groups are not reporting positive detections, or governments have been blocking extraterrestrial signals or suppressing publication of detections, perhaps in response to National Security and Trade Interests from the potential use of advanced extraterrestrial technology or weapons. It has been suggested that the detection of an extraterrestrial radio signal or technology could well be the most highly classified military information that exists.[75] Claims that this has already happened are common in the popular press,[76][77] but the scientists involved report the opposite experience – the press becomes informed and interested in a potential detection even before a signal can be confirmed.[78][edit] They choose not to interact with us
In these scenarios, alien civilizations exist that are technically capable of contacting Earth, but explicitly choose not to do so. This is the official position of the Earth today; we listen (SETI), but except for a few small efforts, do not explicitly transmit. Of course if all, or even most, civilizations act the same way, the galaxy could be full of civilizations eager for contact, but everyone is listening and no-one is transmitting. This is the so-called SETI Paradox.[79][edit] They don't agree among themselves
The official earth policy among the SETI community [80] is "No response to a signal or other evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence should be sent until appropriate international consultations have taken place.". However, given the possible impact of any reply[81] it may be very difficult to obtain any consensus on "Who speaks for Earth?" and "What should we say?". Other civilizations might suffer from this same lack of consensus, and therefore send no messages at all.[edit] Earth is purposely isolated (The zoo hypothesis)
Main article: Zoo hypothesis
It is possible that the belief that alien races would communicate with the human species is merely an assumption, and that alien civilizations may not wish to communicate, even if they have the technical ability. A particular reason that alien civilizations may choose not to communicate is the so-called Zoo hypothesis: the idea that alien civilizations avoid contact with Earth so as not to interfere with our development, or to preserve an isolated "zoo or wilderness area".[82] It may be helpful for some readers to think of this as aliens following their own version of Star Trek's Prime Directive.Many other reasons that an alien race might avoid contact have been proposed. Aliens might only choose to allow contact once the human race has passed certain ethical, political, or technological standards, e.g., ending poverty/war or being able to master interstellar travel. They may not want to interfere with our natural independent progress,[Note 6] or the Earth may have been set up as an explicit experiment that contact would ruin.[83]
These ideas are perhaps most plausible if there is a single alien civilization within contact range, or there is a relatively universal cultural or legal policy amongst more advanced lifeforms necessitating isolation with respect to civilizations at Earth-like stages of development. If there is a plurality of alien cultures, however, this theory may break down under the uniformity of motive flaw: all it takes is a single culture or civilization to decide to act contrary to the imperative within our range of detection for it to be abrogated, and the probability of such a violation increases with the number of civilizations.[11] This idea, and many others, becomes more plausible if we estimate that our galaxy has only a relatively small number of civilizations, or that all civilizations tend to evolve similar cultural values in regard to contact, or that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization (a hegemony).[citation needed]
A related idea is that the perceived universe is a simulated reality. The planetarium hypothesis[84] holds that beings may have simulated a universe for us that appears to be empty of other life, by design. The simulation argument[85] by Bostrom holds that although such a simulation may contain other life, such life cannot be much in advance of us since a far more advanced civilization may be correspondingly hard to simulate. If we treat this matter literally, then the truth is entirely inaccessible, there being an infinite regress problem (See Simulated reality).
[edit] It is dangerous to communicate
An alien civilization might feel it is too dangerous to communicate, either for us or for them. After all, when very different civilizations have met on Earth, the results have often been disastrous for one side or the other, and the same may well apply to interstellar contact.[86] Even contact at a safe distance could lead to infection by computer code[87] or even ideas themselves[88] (see meme). Perhaps prudent civilizations actively hide not only from us but from everyone, out of fear of other civilizations.[edit] The Fermi paradox itself is what prevents communication
Perhaps the Fermi paradox itself—or the alien equivalent of it—is the ultimate reason for any civilization to avoid contact with other civilizations, even if no other obstacles existed. From any one civilization's point of view, it would be unlikely for them to be the first ones to make first contact and therefore likely for them to face the same possibly fatal problems that supposedly prevented the earlier civilizations from contacting them. So perhaps every civilization keeps quiet because of the possibility that there is a real reason for others to do so.[3][edit] They are here unobserved
It may be that intelligent alien life forms not only exist, but are already present here on Earth. They are not detected because they do not wish it, human beings are technically unable to, or because societies refuse to admit to the evidence.[89] Several variations of this idea have been proposed:Carl Sagan and Iosif Shklovsky[90] argued for serious consideration of "paleocontact" with extraterrestrials in the early historical era, and for examination of myths and religious lore for evidence of such contact. Sagan and Shklovsky noted that many or most religions were founded by men who claimed contact with supernatural entities who bestowed wisdom, guidance and technology, citing the fish-god Oannes as a particularly salient example. On this hypothesis, there is in fact ample evidence of alien visitation – it is simply not recognized as such.
It is possible that a life form technologically advanced enough to travel to Earth might also be sufficiently advanced to exist here undetected. In this view, the aliens have arrived on Earth, or in our solar system, and are observing the planet, while concealing their presence. Observation could conceivably be conducted in a number of ways that would be very difficult to detect. For example, a complex system of microscopic monitoring devices constructed via molecular nanotechnology could be deployed on Earth and remain undetected, or sophisticated instruments could conduct passive monitoring from elsewhere.
UFO researchers note that the Fermi Paradox arose within the context of a wave of UFO reports, yet Fermi, Teller, York and Konopinski apparently dismissed the possibility that flying saucers might be extraterrestrial – despite contemporary US Air Force investigations that judged a small portion of UFO reports as inexplicable by contemporary technology. (Mainstream scientific publications have occasionally addressed the possibility of extraterrestrial contact,[91] but the scientific community in general has given little serious attention to claims of unidentified flying objects.) Given that UFO investigators argue compelling evidence supports the reality of UFOs as anomalies, but that extant UFO evidence does not support an extraterrestrial origin, it is suggested that closer examination of UFO data may confirm or falsify the Fermi paradox and/or the extraterrestrial hypothesis of UFO origins: “Any refusal of interest [by mainstream scientists] in investigating the UFO phenomenon, using an ETI [extraterrestrial intelligence] concept as one working hypothesis, should surely be astonishing.”[92]
This extraterrestrial hypothesis was jokingly suggested in response to Fermi's paradox by his fellow physicist, Leó Szilárd, who suggested to Fermi that extraterrestrials "are already among us—but they call themselves Hungarians",[93][94] a humorous reference to the peculiar Hungarian language, unrelated to most other languages spoken in Europe.[93][Note 7]
[edit] See also
[edit] Notes
- ^ The Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev has stated that an alien civilization on Kardashev scale of 3 could send signals up to 10 billion light years.
- ^ Let N(r) be the number of civilizations (per unit volume) that can be seen at a radius r. Let Rgbe the radius of the galaxy. So the number of civilizations we see is:
- ^ Note that, even though there is at least one civilization in our galaxy (namely our own), the average or "most likely" number of civilizations in our galaxy as described by this equation may still be smaller than one. In other words, the fact that there is at least one civilization in our galaxy does not mean that this was a likely outcome. This is an example of anthropic bias. No civilization can use itself to estimate the average number of civilizations in a galaxy, since if there was not at least one civilization the question could not arise. The Drake equation computes only the long-term average number of civilizations; even if the average number of civilizations per galaxy is less than one, there could be more than one in any given galaxy at any given time.
- ^ An example of fears of civilization-destroying physics experiments. This particular fear (particle colliders creating black holes, destroying the false vacuum, etc.) is discounted among scientists, since cosmic rays of much higher energy have been striking the Earth and moon for eons (NYT article, Technical report).
- ^ a b See, for example, Berserker (Saberhagen), The Heechee Saga (Pohl), Revelation Space (Reynolds)
- ^ For an example from popular culture, see the Prime Directive of Star Trek
- ^ See, for example, George Marx's 1995 lecture, "Conflicts and Creativity – The Hungarian Lesson", which was based on his 1994 book, The Voice of the Martians, Roland Eötvös Physical Society ISBN 9630574276, and his article Marx, George (1996). "The myth of the martians and the golden age of Hungarian science". Science & Education 5 (3): 225. Bibcode 1996Sc&Ed...5..225M. doi:10.1007/BF00414313.
[edit] References
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- ^ Bostrom, Nick (2007). In Great Silence there is Great Hope. Retrieved 2010-09-06.
- ^ a b Milan M. Ćirković (2009). "Fermi's Paradox – The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?". Serbian Astronomical Journal 178 (178): 1–20. arXiv:0907.3432. Bibcode 2009SerAJ.178....1C. doi:10.2298/SAJ0978001C.
- ^ Lem, Stanisław (1983). His Master's Voice. Harvest Books. ISBN 0-15-640300-5.
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- ^ Bostrom, Nick. "Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". Retrieved October 4, 2009.
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- ^ Hawking, Stephen. "Life in the Universe". Public Lectures. University of Cambridge. Archived from the original on April 21, 2006. Retrieved May 11, 2006.
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- ^ Archer, Michael (1989). "Slime Monsters Will Be Human Too". Aust. Nat. Hist 22: 546–547.
- ^ Webb, p. 112
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- ^ Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković. Global catastrophic risks. Section 12.5 – The Fermi Paradox and Mass Extinctions.
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- ^ Baxter, Stephen (2001). "The Planetarium Hypothesis: A Resolution of the Fermi Paradox". Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 54 (5/6): 210–216.
- ^ Bostrom, Nick (2003). "Are You Living In a Computer Simulation?". Philosophical Quarterly 53 (211): 243–255. doi:10.1111/1467-9213.00309.; See also this web site about the simulation argument.
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- ^ Carrigan, Richard A. (2006). "Do potential SETI signals need to be decontaminated?". Acta Astronautica 58 (2): 112–117. Bibcode 2006AcAau..58..112C. doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2005.05.004.
- ^ Marsden, P. (1998). "Memetics and social contagion: Two sides of the same coin". Journal of Memetics-Evolutionary Models of Information Transmission ({Journal of Memetics) 2 (2): 171--185.
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- ^ Steel, D. (1995). "SETA and 1991 VG". The Observatory 115: 78–83. Bibcode 1995Obs...115...78S. Retrieved August 19, 2010.
- ^ Swords, Michael D. (1989) “Science and the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis”, Journal of UFO Studies, New Series 1, 1989, 67–102, p. 88; reprinted in pp. 368–373 in Jerome Clark's The UFO Encyclopedia: The Phenomenon from the Beginning. 2nd edition. 1998. Omingraphics. ISBN 0-7808-0097-4
- ^ a b Webb, p. 28
- ^ Crick, Francis (1981). Life Itself. Simon and Schuster. ISBN 0671255622.
[edit] Bibliography
- Webb, Stephen (2002). If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens... Where Is Everybody?. Copernicus Books. ISBN 0-387-95501-1.
[edit] Further reading
- Ben Zuckerman and Michael H. Hart, Extraterrestrials: Where Are They? ISBN 0-521-44803-4 Amazon
- Savage, Marshall T. (1992). The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in 8 Easy Steps. Denver: Empyrean Publishing. ISBN 0-9633914-8-8.
- Michaud, Michael (2006). Contact with Alien Civilizations: Our Hopes and Fears about Encountering Extraterrestrials. Copernicus Books. ISBN 978-0387-28598-6.
- Gold, Thomas (1998). The Deep Hot Biosphere. Springer. ISBN 978-0387952536.
- Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life
- Documentary "Overcome the Great Silence!"
[edit] External links
Listen to this article (3 parts) · (info)
This audio file was created from a revision of the "Fermi paradox" article dated 2008-05-29, and does not reflect subsequent edits to the article. (Audio help)
- SMBC
- Interstellar Radio Messages
- Exotic Civilizations: Possible Answer to Fermi's Paradox by Paul Hughes
- Introduction and Drake equations for the Fermi paradox
- So much space, so little time: why aliens haven't found us yet by Ian Sample,The Guardian January 18, 2007
- The Possibilities of FTL: Or Fermi's Paradox Reconsidered by F.E. Freiheit IV
- Fermi's Paradox (i.e. Where are They?) by James Schombert
- Life in the Universe, by Eric Schulman, Mercury Magazine (May/June to November/December 2000)
- Answering the Fermi Paradox: Exploring the Mechanisms of Universal Transcension by John Smart
- Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Solar System: Resolving the Fermi Paradox, which argues that our observations are incomplete, and There Is No Fermi Paradox, arguing that the paradox is based on a logical flaw, both by Robert Freitas
- Fermi Paradox debate Astrobiology Magazine July 2002. Michael Meyer, Frank Drake, Christopher McKay, Donald Brownlee, & David Grinspoon.
- The Fermi Paradox: Back With a Vengeance by George Dvorsky.
- Virtual Reality Could Explain the Fermi Paradox by Michael Graham Richard
- A list of possible answers to the Fermi paradox (with references to published works discussing some of these options) by Anders Sandberg
Eschatology
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Last Things" redirects here. For the C. P. Snow novel, see Strangers and Brothers.
 | It has been suggested that End time be merged into this article or section. (Discuss) Proposed since February 2010. |
| Part of a series on |
| Eschatology |
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i/ˌɛskəˈtɒlədʒi/ (from the Greek ἔσχατος/ἐσχάτη/ἔσχατον, eschatos/eschatē/eschaton meaning "last" and -logy meaning "the study of", first used in English around 1550)[1] is a part of theology, philosophy, and futurology concerned with what are believed to be the final events of history, the ultimate destiny of humanity — commonly referred to as the end of the world or the "World to Come."The Oxford English Dictionary defines eschatology as "concerned with ‘the four last things: death, judgment, heaven, and hell’".[2]
In the context of mysticism, the phrase refers metaphorically to the end of ordinary reality and reunion with the Divine. In many religions it is taught as an existing future event prophesied in sacred texts or folklore. More broadly, eschatology may encompass related concepts such as the Messiah or Messianic Age, the end time, and the end of days.
History is often seen as being divided into "ages" (Gk. aeons), an age being a period where certain realities are present. An age may come to an end and be replaced by a new age where different realities are present. This transition from one age to another is often the subject of eschatological discussion. So, instead of "the end of the world" we may speak of "the end of the age" and be referring to the end of "life as we know it" and the beginning of a new reality. Indeed, much apocalyptic fiction does not deal with the "end of time" but rather with the end of a certain period of time, the end of life as it is now, and the beginning of a new period of time. It is usually a crisis that brings an end to current reality and ushers in a new way of living / thinking / being. This crisis may take the form of the intervention of a deity in history, a war, a change in the environment or the reaching of a new level of consciousness. If a better world results, we say it is "utopian". If a worse, it is "dystopian." Eschatologies vary as to their degree of optimism or pessimism about the future (indeed, the same future may be utopian for some and dystopic for others - "heaven and hell" for example).
Most modern eschatology and apocalypticism, both religious and secular, involves the violent disruption or destruction of the world, whereas Christian and Jewish eschatologies view the end times as the consummation or perfection of God's creation of the world. For example, according to ancient Hebrew belief, life takes a linear (and not cyclical) path; the world began with God and is constantly headed toward God’s final goal for creation.
Contents[hide] |
[edit] In philosophy
Eschatology has also been a study shared and theorized on by philosophers. Saint Augustine stressed the allegorical method of interpretation. He was greatly influenced by Origen.[3] He was followed by Ibn al-Nafis[4] and Hegel with their philosophy of history, and, some (such as the author Albert Camus in 'The Rebel') have argued, Karl Marx.[edit] Futures Studies and Transhumanism
More recently, many involved in futures studies and transhumanism have remarked upon the accelerating rate of scientific progress and anticipate a technological singularity in the 21st century that would profoundly and unpredictably change the course of human history, and result in Homo sapiens no longer being the dominant life form on earth. The statistical methodology for inferring a single or multiple near-simultaneous technological singularities has been criticised for being quasi-empirical at best, using questionable statistical methodology.[citation needed] Part of the argument can be categorized as rationalist, not merely empirical, as the conclusions are nearly tautological, similar to early rationalist arguments for evolution by natural selection.[citation needed]
[edit] Eschatology in religions
[edit] Bahá'í eschatology
Main article: Bahá'í teachings
In Bahá'í belief, creation has neither a beginning nor an end. Instead the eschatology of other religions is viewed as symbolic. In Bahá'í belief, human time is marked by a series of progressive revelations in which successive messengers or prophets come from God.[5] The coming of each of these messengers is seen as the day of judgement to the adherents of the previous religion, who may choose to accept the new messenger and enter the 'heaven' of belief, or denounce the new messenger and enter the 'hell' of denial. In this view the terms heaven and hell are seen as symbolic terms for the person's spiritual progress and their nearness to or distance from God.[5] In Bahá'í belief, the coming of Bahá'u'lláh, the founder of the Bahá'í Faith, signals the fulfilment of previous eschatological expectations of Islam, Christianity and other major religions.[6][edit] Buddhist eschatology
Main article: Buddhist eschatology
Some forms of Buddhism hold belief in cycles in which life span of human beings changes according to human nature. In Cakkavati sutta the Buddha explained the relationship between life span of human being and behaviour. As per this sutta, in the past unskillful behavior was unknown among the human race. As a result, people lived for an immensely long time — 80,000 years — endowed with great beauty, wealth, pleasure, and strength. Over the course of time, though, they began behaving in various unskillful ways. This caused the human life span gradually to shorten, to the point where it now stands at 100 years, with human beauty, wealth, pleasure, and strength decreasing proportionately. In the future, as morality continues to degenerate, human life will continue to shorten to the point where the normal life span is 10 years, with people reaching sexual maturity at five[citation needed]Ultimately, conditions will deteriorate to the point of a "sword-interval," in which swords appear in the hands of all human beings, and they hunt one another like game. A few people, however, will take shelter in the wilderness to escape the carnage, and when the slaughter is over, they will come out of hiding and resolve to take up a life of skillful and virtuous action again. With the recovery of virtue, the human life span will gradually increase again until it reaches 80,000 years, with people attaining sexual maturity at 500.
According to Tibetan Buddhist literature, the age of first Buddha was 1,000,000 years and height was 100 cubits while 28th Buddha, Siddhartha Gautama (563BC–483BC) lived 80 years and his height was 20 cubits.
[edit] Christian eschatology
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Main article: Christian eschatology
Christian eschatology is concerned with death, an intermediate state, Heaven, hell, the return of Jesus, the resurrection of the dead, a rapture, a great tribulation, the Millennium, end of the world, the last judgment, a new heaven and a new earth (the World to Come), and the ultimate consummation of all of God's purposes. Eschatological passages are found in many places, esp. Isaiah, Daniel, Matthew 24, and the Book of Revelation, but Revelation often occupies a central place in Christian eschatology.The second coming of Christ is the central event in Christian eschatology. Most Christians believe that death and suffering will continue to exist until Christ's return. There are, however, various views concerning the order and significance of other eschatological events.
The book of Revelation is at the core of Christian eschatology. The study of Revelation is usually divided into four approaches. In the Futurist approach, Revelation is chiefly seen as referring to events which as yet have not come to pass, but which will come to pass at the end of the age, and the end of the world. This is the approach which most applies to eschatological studies. In the Preterist approach, Revelation chiefly refers to the events of the first century, such as the struggle of Christianity to survive the persecutions of the Roman Empire, the fall of Jerusalem in 70 AD, and the desecration of the temple in the same year. In the Historicist approach, Revelation provides us with a broad view of history, and passages in Revelation are identified with major historical people and events. In the Idealist (or Spiritualist or Symbolic) approach, the events of Revelation are neither past nor future, but are purely symbolic, dealing with the ongoing struggle and ultimate triumph of good over evil.
[edit] Hindu eschatology
Main article: Hindu eschatology
Contemporary Hindu eschatology is linked in the Vaishnavite tradition to the figure of Kalki, or the tenth and last avatar of Vishnu before the age draws to a close, and Shiva simultaneously dissolves and regenerates the universe.Most Hindus believe that we are living in the Kali Yuga, the last of four periods (Yuga) that make up the current age. Each period has seen a successive degeneration in the moral order and character of human beings, to the point that in the Kali Yuga quarrel and hypocrisy are prevalent. Often, the invocation of Kali Yuga denotes a certain helplessness in the face of the horrors and suffering of the human condition and a nostalgia for a golden past or a future salvation.
However, Hindu conceptions of time, like those found in other non-Western traditions, are cyclical in that one age may end but another will always begin. As such, the cycle of birth, growth, decay, death, and renewal at the individual level finds its echo in the cosmic order of all things, yet affected by the vagaries of the comings and goings of divine interventions in the Vaishnavite belief.
Most Hindus believe that Shiva will destroy the world at the end of the kalpa. Some Shaivites hold the view that he is incessantly destroying and creating the world.
[edit] Islamic eschatology
Main article: Islamic eschatology
Islamic eschatology is documented in the sayings of the Prophet Muhammad, regarding the Signs of the Day of Judgment. The Prophet's sayings on the subject have been traditionally divided into Major and Minor Signs. He spoke about several Minor Signs of the approach of the Day of Judgment, including:- Abu Hurairah reported that Muhammad said: "If you survive for a time you would certainly see people who would have whips in their hands like the tail of an ox. They would get up in the morning under the wrath of God and they would go into the evening with the anger of God."[7][8]
- Abu Hurairah narrated that Muhammad said, "When honesty is lost, then wait for the Day of Judgment." It was asked, "How will honesty be lost, O Apostle of God?" He said, "When authority is given to those who do not deserve it, then wait for the Day of Judgment."[9]
- 'Umar ibn al-Khattāb, in a long narration, relating to the questions of the angel Gabriel, reported: "Inform me when the Day of Judgment will be." He [the Prophet Muhammad] remarked: "The one who is being asked knows no more than the inquirer." He [the inquirer] said: "Tell me about its indications." He [the Prophet Muhammad] said: "That the slave-girl gives birth to her mistress and master, and that you would find barefooted, destitute shepherds of goats vying with one another in the construction of magnificent buildings."[7][9]
- "Before the Day of Judgment there will be great liars, so beware of them."[9]
- "When the most wicked member of a tribe becomes its ruler, and the most worthless member of a community becomes its leader, and a man is respected through fear of the evil he may do, and leadership is given to people who are unworthy of it, expect the Day of Judgment."[9]
[edit] Jewish eschatology
Main article: Jewish eschatology
Judaism addresses the end times in the Book of Daniel and numerous other prophetic passages in the Hebrew scriptures, and also in the Talmud, particularly Tractate Avodah Zarah.[edit] Zoroastrian eschatology
Main article: Zoroastrian eschatology
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Dictionary - Definition of Eschatology Webster's Online Dictionary
- ^ Oxford English Dictionary
- ^ J. Dwight Pentecost. Things to Come. Zondervan Publishing House, Grand Rapids, Michigan 49506. ISBN -10: 0310308909 and ISBN 9780310308904.
- ^ Dr. Abu Shadi Al-Roubi, Ibnul-Nafees As a Philosopher, Encyclopedia of Islamic World.
- ^ a b Smith, Peter (2000). "Eschatology". A concise encyclopedia of the Bahá'í Faith. Oxford: Oneworld Publications. pp. 133–134. ISBN 1-85168-184-1.
- ^ Buck, Christopher (2004). "The eschatology of Globalization: The multiple-messiahship of Bahā'u'llāh revisited". In Sharon, Moshe. Studies in Modern Religions, Religious Movements and the Bābī-Bahā'ī Faiths. Boston: Brill. pp. 143–178. ISBN 90-04-13904-4.
- ^ a b Muslim
- ^ Sunan Imam Ahmed
- ^ a b c d Bukhari
[edit] Further reading
 | This section may require cleanup to meet Wikipedia's quality standards. (Consider using more specific cleanup instructions.) Please help improve this section if you can. The talk page may contain suggestions. (June 2008) |
- A Cup of Trembling (1995) by Dave Hunt; Harvest House Publishers, Eugene, Oregon 97402; ISBN 1-56507-334-7.
- Christ Will Come Again: Hope for the Second Coming of Jesus by Stephen Travis. 2004 Toronto: Clements Publishing. ISBN 1-894667-33-6
- In God's Time: The Bible and the Future by Craig C. Hill. 2002 Grand Rapids: Eerdmans. ISBN 0-802860-90-7
- Shock Wave 2000! subtitled The Harold Camping 1994 Debacle; (1994) by Robert Sungenis, Scott Temple, and David Allen Lewis; New Leaf Press, Inc., P.O. Box 311, Green Forest AR 72638; ISBN 0-89221-269-1; Library of Congress: 94-67493.
- Eschatology: Death and Eternal Life by Joseph Ratzinger. 1988 Washington D.C.: Catholic University of America Press ISBN 978-0-8132-1516-7
- ...and I am Sid Harth@onlinecogitoergosum.com
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