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Iran's Navy Commander Adm. Habibollah Sayari speaks to the press last week about Iran's 10-day military exercise.
Iran's imperfect trap for Obama
Editor's Note: Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian – Israeli Middle East analyst and the co-author of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran. The following post was originally published in The Diplomat, a stellar international current-affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific region.
By Meir Javedanfar, The Diplomat
The publication of an analysis last week by Tehran-based ASR Iran made for interesting reading. Entitled “Iran’s blows against the White House; will Obama have the same fate as Carter?” the writer concluded that:
“What has happened in recent months, and will probably continue, brings up memories of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and its impact on the defeat of the Democrats and Jimmy Carter’s personal failure. Perhaps finally, as a result of the blows received from the Iran front, Obama will become one of the few single term U.S. presidents – unless in the few remaining months he carries out serious reforms in bilateral relations and comes down from his ivory tower and returns to the negotiating table with Iran as an equal.”
The line about Iran’s recent “blows” against the United States is no doubt referring to the U.S. drone currently in Iranian hands, thecapture of a supposed U.S. spy and Iran’s continuing ability to continue with its nuclear program, including claims that Tehran is transferring sensitive nuclear activities to fortified underground sites.
A Cold and Clever U.S. Base Move
Although ASR Iran isn’t believed to be a mouthpiece of the regime, its observations are often an accurate reflection of the opinions of the Iranian leadership and its supporters, many of whom now believe that Iran has not only not “lost” to Barack Obama, but that the regime might actually be coming out on top.
Tuesday’s threat by Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz “if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments” was not only a warning aimed at the West generally, but also bears the hallmarks of an Iranian political trap for Obama as he heads into an election year.
It’s no secret that the U.S. economy is Obama’s Achilles’ heel. Iran knows that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could rise significantly, doing further damage to an already faltering U.S. economy. With the U.S. presidential election less than a year away, this could be the kiss of death for Obama’s reelection chances. A sudden rise in oil prices could do to Obama’s reelection bid what Ayatollah Ali Khomeini’s 1979 takeover of the U.S. embassy did to Carter’s reelection ambitions, namely wreck them.
And if at any point after sanctions were imposed Obama tried to limit the damage of high energy prices by then waiving sanctions (something the new legislation allows him to) then he’d be stepping into another trap, one of looking “weak” on Iran. Any Republican opponent would revel in the opportunity to present Obama as both the man who wrecked the economy, and then the leader who “chickened out” against Iran’s rulers.
Obama therefore has no choice now but to push ahead – the U.S. Congress has ripped out its reverse gear. But in doing so, he may be damned if he moves forward, and damned if he doesn’t.
So, are Iran’s leaders right to congratulate themselves for upping the ante by issuing the challenge over Hormuz? Certainly, if Obama doesn’t want to see his already uncertain electoral chances sink in the Persian Gulf then he will need to tread carefully.
Law Not War in the South China Sea
However, Iran’s leaders need to be careful, too. By blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would in essence be declaring war against Persian Gulf states and members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, many of whom use the strait to export oil and liquefied natural gas.
Not only would such a move place these countries squarely in the U.S. camp, but it could also backfire by making Iran look weak if it didn’t follow through. It’s no secret that Iran needs the strait to export its own oil, and it’s hard not to see Iran backing down under pressure of its neighbors to lift a blockade to help its own economy. In doing so, it would look weak in its neighbors’ eyes.
Blocking the strait would also likely push these same neighbors to consider a pipeline into the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that in the long run would undermine the strait’s strategic value to Iran.
And even if Iran did try to create a blockade, what if other countries in the region tried to send a civilian vessel through the strait? Would Iran really try to sink a Qatari ship or a Bahraini tanker? Such a move would give ally the United States justification to enter the fray, and the powerful U.S. fifth fleet would not only have superior firepower, but also legal justification to flex its muscles.
South China Sea Conflict? No Way
In his article “Iranians, The pioneers of navigation in the Persian Gulf,” Iranian historian Hossein Nourbakhsh says: “According to the writings of the ancient Greeks, including Herodotus, and to the allusions made in the Aristotle’s book on politics, ancient Iranians were the first great navigators of the world.”
But having laid a political mine for Obama, Iran’s leaders will need all their navigational skills to avoid falling into their own trap.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Meir Javedanfar. For more, visit The Diplomat.
By Meir Javedanfar, The Diplomat
The publication of an analysis last week by Tehran-based ASR Iran made for interesting reading. Entitled “Iran’s blows against the White House; will Obama have the same fate as Carter?” the writer concluded that:
“What has happened in recent months, and will probably continue, brings up memories of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and its impact on the defeat of the Democrats and Jimmy Carter’s personal failure. Perhaps finally, as a result of the blows received from the Iran front, Obama will become one of the few single term U.S. presidents – unless in the few remaining months he carries out serious reforms in bilateral relations and comes down from his ivory tower and returns to the negotiating table with Iran as an equal.”
The line about Iran’s recent “blows” against the United States is no doubt referring to the U.S. drone currently in Iranian hands, thecapture of a supposed U.S. spy and Iran’s continuing ability to continue with its nuclear program, including claims that Tehran is transferring sensitive nuclear activities to fortified underground sites.
A Cold and Clever U.S. Base Move
Although ASR Iran isn’t believed to be a mouthpiece of the regime, its observations are often an accurate reflection of the opinions of the Iranian leadership and its supporters, many of whom now believe that Iran has not only not “lost” to Barack Obama, but that the regime might actually be coming out on top.
Tuesday’s threat by Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz “if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments” was not only a warning aimed at the West generally, but also bears the hallmarks of an Iranian political trap for Obama as he heads into an election year.
It’s no secret that the U.S. economy is Obama’s Achilles’ heel. Iran knows that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could rise significantly, doing further damage to an already faltering U.S. economy. With the U.S. presidential election less than a year away, this could be the kiss of death for Obama’s reelection chances. A sudden rise in oil prices could do to Obama’s reelection bid what Ayatollah Ali Khomeini’s 1979 takeover of the U.S. embassy did to Carter’s reelection ambitions, namely wreck them.
And if at any point after sanctions were imposed Obama tried to limit the damage of high energy prices by then waiving sanctions (something the new legislation allows him to) then he’d be stepping into another trap, one of looking “weak” on Iran. Any Republican opponent would revel in the opportunity to present Obama as both the man who wrecked the economy, and then the leader who “chickened out” against Iran’s rulers.
Obama therefore has no choice now but to push ahead – the U.S. Congress has ripped out its reverse gear. But in doing so, he may be damned if he moves forward, and damned if he doesn’t.
So, are Iran’s leaders right to congratulate themselves for upping the ante by issuing the challenge over Hormuz? Certainly, if Obama doesn’t want to see his already uncertain electoral chances sink in the Persian Gulf then he will need to tread carefully.
Law Not War in the South China Sea
However, Iran’s leaders need to be careful, too. By blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would in essence be declaring war against Persian Gulf states and members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, many of whom use the strait to export oil and liquefied natural gas.
Not only would such a move place these countries squarely in the U.S. camp, but it could also backfire by making Iran look weak if it didn’t follow through. It’s no secret that Iran needs the strait to export its own oil, and it’s hard not to see Iran backing down under pressure of its neighbors to lift a blockade to help its own economy. In doing so, it would look weak in its neighbors’ eyes.
Blocking the strait would also likely push these same neighbors to consider a pipeline into the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that in the long run would undermine the strait’s strategic value to Iran.
And even if Iran did try to create a blockade, what if other countries in the region tried to send a civilian vessel through the strait? Would Iran really try to sink a Qatari ship or a Bahraini tanker? Such a move would give ally the United States justification to enter the fray, and the powerful U.S. fifth fleet would not only have superior firepower, but also legal justification to flex its muscles.
South China Sea Conflict? No Way
In his article “Iranians, The pioneers of navigation in the Persian Gulf,” Iranian historian Hossein Nourbakhsh says: “According to the writings of the ancient Greeks, including Herodotus, and to the allusions made in the Aristotle’s book on politics, ancient Iranians were the first great navigators of the world.”
But having laid a political mine for Obama, Iran’s leaders will need all their navigational skills to avoid falling into their own trap.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Meir Javedanfar. For more, visit The Diplomat.
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soundoff (9 Responses)
"..........And then we will poke them with sticks like the one I'm holding right here". Hahahahahahahahaha .
Whether this report from Iran's news agency ASR is true or not, which seems to be to good to be so, Barack Obama doesn't deserve to be reelected in either case!!! This man has been a horrific letdown from the word go!!!!!!!!
What if other persian gulf states and member of the Persian gulf Cooperation Council get together and oppose all these sanctions which is the root cause of this problem? And with the help of Chinese and russians they may hamper America's economy. We should be extra careful while dealing with Iranians.
Indeed the sabre Iran is rattling is a double-edged sword. The Iranian theocrats disppointed me. They thought they would ruin Obama's chances for his reelection if the oil prices surged due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. They seemed to have ignored the implications of the Machiavellian game they're playing. China wouldn't be amused and India too. This charade could spark a concerted action within the GCC and the region against Iran.
As the author has mentioned, the Asr-e-Iran site is not known to be reflecting the positions of the Iranian government, nor it is a think-tank-like circle. It is affiliated with the mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and has a rather semi-liberal stance and, for example, has criticized the British embassy incident. So one has to be careful not to draw the wrong conclusion from a simple point-of-view article. I guess Mr.Javedanfar knows these facts better than me.
Here is what is said about Mr Javedanfar at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/12/the-start-of-an-iranian-intifada.html
"But I was alarmed to see TB publish MEIR JAVEDANFAR, a known Iranian Zionist who over the years has tried hard to establish Iran's so-called "nuclear program" which in many analysts' estimation lends itself to proponents of economic sanctions and possible military strike against Iran."
Now, I wonder how much redit we can ever give to artcles written by this man!
By the way, iran is well known by for her abandace of natural resources and high level of inteligence in making huge scientific discoveries but unfortunately, Iran has also it's fair share of traitors who sell their mother for a smile from American or Israeli secret agents!
I don't know about everyone else but how Obama deals with Iran going forward would never change my opinion that domestically Obama has been a huge failure. Creating hate at home, increasing our debt at a mind boggling rate, and doing nothing to help create "private" sector Non Union Jobs. He needs to go.
Hate ??? Calling the president a tar baby, Birther Movement, Calling him a Muslim the hate is actually a propganda of the Right wing Racists in GOP... And you've just fallen for that Hate.... Fighting for the Middle Class is not hate
Chess, may not have been invented by Persia, Oops, Iran but Persian might have imported it, (the game) from India. A good chess player, there are many to be listed, (the game). However the principle, if applied liberally to the current stand off between America and Iran, over a concocted story about Iran's civil nuclear research ambitious plan, being portrayed by Pentagon/CIA and the White House propaganda mill, I think, Iran has couple of excellent moves ahead.
Separately, in Iran Times news article, Iran is offering an unusual, for a chess player, an olive branch:
TEHRAN – Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has said that Iran is ready to resume negotiations with the 5+1 group (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany).
Salehi made the remarks during a meeting with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun in Tehran on Thursday.
The Iranian foreign minister discussed Russia’s proposal for a “step-by-step” plan toward Iran’s nuclear program with the Chinese official.
On July 13, Russia made a proposal for a step-by-step approach, according to which Iran could address questions about its nuclear program and be rewarded with a gradual easing of sanctions.
The Chinese vice foreign minister emphasized that the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue should be resolved through negotiations, adding that Beijing is opposed to the adoption of new sanctions on Tehran.
Salehi and Zhai also exchanged views on bilateral issues and expressed hope that the level of relations would be increased.
Zhai stated that his country is keen to increase relations with the Islamic Republic and called for more negotiations to be held between the two countries’ officials.
On the issue of Afghanistan, Salehi said that security operations should be transferred to the Afghan government and foreign forces should leave the country as soon as possible.
The foreign minister also stated that Iran will continue participating in the reconstruction process in the war-torn Afghanistan and will continue its cooperation to help promote peace and security there.
The Chinese official also said foreign troops should disengage from the country and the Afghan people should be given the right to self-determination.
...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org