Friday, December 9, 2011

Eurokrise and I

Europe's new fiscal union: how big a step out of crisis?

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have proposed a pact to form a European 'fiscal union' with strict financial rules in parallel with the EU. But Britain has balked, leaving it the odd man out.

By Michael SteiningerCorrespondent / December 9, 2011
French President Nicolas Sarkozy (l.) walks by British Prime Minister David Cameron (c.) during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels on Dec. 9.
Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP
Enlarge
Berlin
Politicians are praising it as a success, while economic experts see it with skepticism.  Either way, the latest European Union emergency summit in Brussels has agreed on a plan to fight the union’s sovereign debt crisis through further integration of the eurozone. But the proposal – drafted by Germany and France – appears to have done so at the cost of widening the rift between continental Europe and Britain.
After a night-long discussion, 26 of the 27 European leaders agreed to pursue what German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy call a fiscal union – a group of states within the EU which adheres to stricter budget rules and accepts sanctions if these rules are broken.
“What we have achieved tonight is a tremendous step towards a stable Europe,” Mrs. Merkel told journalists in Brussels on Friday. “This summit will go down in history,” President Sarkozy said.
The Franco-German plan was originally to change the Lisbon Treaty, the basic legal framework that governs the EU, making the amendments binding for all 27 members. But the UK refused to back the move on the grounds that it did not get an exemption from a planned financial-transaction tax. Britain's financial services sector accounts for about 10 percent of the country's economy.
To circumvent the British veto, France and Germany instead proposed a new treaty, in parallel with the EU treaty, to implement the proposed changes. Most of the current EU signatories agreed to the proposal. A number of countries like Sweden, Hungary, and the Czech Republic initially said they would first have to get parliamentary approval for the new proposal, but late announced they were prepared to sign the agreement, leaving Britain as the odd one out.
Many European economists were less enthusiastic about the plan than Merkel and Sarkozy. “Europe has moved a step toward solving the crisis,” says Ferdinand Fichtner of the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin. “Stronger fiscal coordination is an important pillar for a stable currency union. But it does not address the main problem of struggling economies in southern Europe: lack of growth.”
The current course is one of government austerity, which could slow GDP growth even further.  Economists like Mr. Fichtner worry that without measures to stimulate growth, the money won't be raised to pay off debt.


A pact with lipstick?

Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, welcomed the summit’s outcome. “[The agreement] is going to be the basis for a good fiscal compact and more discipline in economic policy in the euro area members," he said. "We came to conclusions that will have to be fleshed out more in the coming days."
Mr. Draghi had made it clear before the summit that a stronger engagement of the ECB – for example, buying bonds from countries like Greece, Spain, or Italy – depended on the introduction of stricter budget rules. Making the ECB a lender of last resort is seen by many analysts as the only effective tool in solving the crisis.
“What has been agreed is definitely not a fiscal union,” says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London-based Center for European Reform. “There is no shared budget, no joint debt issuance, no mechanism to transfer money between the participating economies. It is a stability pact with lipstick.”
Fiscal austerity alone would not solve the crisis, Mr. Tilford stressed, and what was needed was economic growth.
The details of the intergovernmental treaty for a fiscal union will be worked out within the next three months. British Prime Minister David Cameron played down the possible consequences of the UK’s absence in these negotiations, saying his country would not profit from taking part in these talks as it was not a eurozone member.
“Cameron’s strategy is very hard to comprehend,” says Tilford. “Britain will not be able to influence policy in a favorable direction if it isolates itself. It also does not help the European single market, which Britain is one of the most potent members of.”
Apart from reaching a deal on a fiscal union, the summit agreed on bringing the introduction of Europe’s new bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, forward by a year to July 2012, and that EU countries would provide €200 billion to the International Monetary Fund to help tackle the crisis.
Whether these measures are enough to convince global financial markets that Europe finally has a grip on the debt crisis remains to be seen. Tilford, for one, does not believe so. “A month from now there’s going to be another emergency summit.”
Get daily or weekly updates from CSMonitor.com delivered to your inbox. Sign up today.

Topics

 

Euro crisis: Eurozone deal reached without UK

Nicolas Sarkozy said he would have preferred a treaty among all the members of the EU
EU members which use the euro have agreed to a tax and budget pact to tackle the eurozone's debt crisis.
But a German and French attempt to get all 27 EU states to back changes to the union's treaties was dropped after objections from the UK.
Prime Minister David Cameron had insisted on an exemption for the UK from some financial regulations.
Instead, eurozone members and others will adopt an accord with penalties for breaking deficit rules.
The new tougher rules on spending and budgets will now be backed not by an EU treaty but by a treaty between governments. It will be quicker to set up but it may prove less rigorous, says the BBC's Europe editor Gavin Hewitt in Brussels.
But, he says, Europe has taken a big step towards closer integration, with binding rules over tax and spending, and sanctions against countries that overspend.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said the leaders of 26 countries had indicated a desire to participate, pending consultation with their parliaments.

Analysis

There is now a two-speed Europe - after this long night, the French president accepted that.
There is, too, considerable antagonism towards Britain - it used its veto in what is seen in Brussels as Europe's hour of need.
What is unclear is whether European institutions can be used to implement a treaty between governments.
If EU officials are in the room, David Cameron has already laid down a marker that he expected the UK to be involved. It is all a recipe for further tussles.
The big question is what effect all this will have on the eurozone crisis. The main impact will lie in the long-term - the agreement has little to say about the debt mountains and the absence of growth in most of Europe.
Mr Cameron said he had not signed up to the deal because, he said, it was not in Britain's interests.
"Those countries that sign this treaty... we wish them well because we want the eurozone to sort out its problems, to achieve that stability and growth that all of Europe - Britain included - needs," he said.
EU leaders aim to have the pact ready to take effect by March.
Among the measures agreed on, leaders pledged to provide more money for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to fund bailouts.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde welcomed the deal as "a really good step in the right direction".
But the announcement from Brussels failed to lift the markets, which are still hoping for more intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB), and European stocks traded slightly down on Friday.
German praise Nearly 10 hours of talks could not produce an agreement involving all member states. Instead, the 17 members of the eurozone will work on a separate deal outside EU treaties. They will be joined possibly by nine other countries, the EU statement said, leaving the UK as the only exception.

Euro agreement - from the papers

The Guardian says Britain is "facing isolation in Europe" after David Cameron vetoed a revision of the Lisbon treaty.
In the Economist, the Charlemagne's notebook blog describes the agreement - and Britain's non-participation - as Europe's "great divorce".
The Financial Times says EU leaders are "struggling to cope" with what it describes as "a profound split".
The New York Times describes the agreement as "not a perfect solution," because it could be seen as institutionalizing a two-speed Europe - but it says the pact could be ratified much more quickly than a full treaty amendment.
On Friday, Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt said she would have to consult parliament before agreeing to sign up, according to a Danish press report.
Hungary's Europe Minister Eniko Gyori told the BBC her country was willing to join with the consent of parliament - contradicting earlier reports. A revised EU statement said Hungary had signalled its intention to join the process.
Mr Sarkozy said the sticking point had been Mr Cameron's insistence on a protocol allowing London to opt-out on proposed change on financial services.
"We could not accept this," he said.
During the talks, eurozone leaders agreed to work on new budgetary rules, which envisage automatic penalties.
The main measures agreed to as part of the new agreement, called a "fiscal compact" include:
David Cameron: It is better to have eurozone countries make arrangements separately
  • a cap of 0.5% of GDP on countries' annual structural deficits
  • "automatic consequences" for countries whose public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP
  • the tighter rules to be enshrined in countries' constitutions
  • European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be accelerated and brought into force in July 2012
  • adequacy of 500bn-euro (£427bn; $666bn) limit for ESM to be reassessed
  • Eurozone and other EU countries to provide up to 200bn euros to the IMF to help debt-stricken eurozone members
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, praised the plan of action, saying it would contribute to securing the euro.
"I believe that after long negotiations this is a very, very important result because we have learned from the past and from mistakes and because in future [there will be] binding decisions, binding rules, more influence from the commission, more community and with that higher coherence."
ECB chief Mario Draghi said the accord would lead to much more discipline in economic policy, calling it "a very good outcome for the euro area".
Our correspondent says the immediate test will be whether this agreement persuades the ECB to act more aggressively in the markets and so lower the borrowing costs of troubled countries like Italy and Spain.
Can the summit resolve the EU crisis? Are you in the eurozone? Please send in your reaction using the form below.
If you are happy to be contacted by a BBC journalist please leave a telephone number that we can contact you on. In some cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name as you provide it and location, unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. When sending us pictures, video or eyewitness accounts at no time should you endanger yourself or others, take any unnecessary risks or infringe any laws. Please ensure you have read the terms and conditions.

More on This Story

From other news sites

* May require registration or subscription

Ads by Google

More World stories

RSS

Features & Analysis

Elsewhere on the BBC

  • Chinese waitressesAre you being served?

    Is the future of the Chinese economy in the hands of consumer culture and domestic demand?

Programmes

  • Mark ZuckerbergClick Watch

    Facebook fixes a privacy loophole and other tech news in Click's weekly bulletin

bbc.co.uk navigation

0 comments:

Post a Comment