Saturday, December 3, 2011

China Unrivaled, Oops, Unraveled

  1. 中国无可比拟的，哎呀，揭开

    发布 2011年12月4日 ， 管理员
    主办单位 谷歌
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    中国领导人发出警告，由于经济动荡
    （美联社） - 16小时前
    北京（美联社） - 中国领导层的法律和秩序的沙皇是警告说，中国经济的变化所产生的社会动荡的最新迹象，政府是担心疲弱的增长所带来的后果，是准备不足。
    政府需要更好的方法处理与经济的“负面影响”，中央政治局委员周永康说，在省级官员的言论周五发表的官方新华社星期六。 周小川呼吁社会管理的创新方法 - 为加强治安管理和失业保险，这意味着挫伤动乱等不同的政策离合器的委婉说法。
    ，“周说：”尤其是当面临市场经济的负面影响，我们仍然没有形成一个完整的社会管理机制。 如何这样做，他说，“是摆在我们面前的重大而紧迫的任务。”
    周 恩来的谈话强调政府的不安越来越担心经济增长放缓和它可能带来的社会动荡。 在过去的一周中，一个备受瞩目的指数显示制造业承包急剧下降，政府降低银行储备的控制，以鼓励更多的贷款。 同时，罢工和其他工作的行动已经升至最近的工厂裁减面对较高的劳动力成本和来自欧洲的出口需求减少。
    周小川敦促省级官员，以消除浪费性支出作出了贡献的大规模抗议活动，暴乱和其他动乱近年来激增。
    在磨破的紧张局势的另一个实例，新华社报道，数百人击中，杀害了一个女孩和警察没有到达现场，两小时后，一辆卡车翻倒在西安中心城市四个警察和政府车日（星期五）。

    版本：美国
    谢尔顿Filger

    方正，GlobalEconomicCrisis.com
    从谢尔顿Filger更新
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    在工业部门，中国的经济正在收缩

    发表于：12 / 2 / 11日下午12:39 ET
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    十一月份中国的采购经理人指数（PMI） ​​的数字注册的只有49分 ，根据中国物流与采购联合会。 这个数字是在关键的中国制造业萎缩。 它已经由于其工厂的世界，中国的GDP已经在世界上第二大的推动作用。 最新PMI已经由汇丰银行，这也是报告在工业部门的收缩的编制类似的指数扩增。 正所谓快速增长的中国经济的这种令人沮丧的消息是在欧元区国家陷入主权债务危机不断恶化，现在出口减少。 中国PMI数据是自2009年2月以来的最坏的情况下，在尾部收缩后，全球经济危机在2008年秋季开始在全球经济的自由落体。
    一个在中国 的工业收缩的担心应如何？ 许多观察家已经指出，中国在先进经济体之间的经济衰退和停滞的时候的快速增长，很大一部分是人为诱发大规模的政府开支，尤其是在无人居住的公寓和空置的商 场。 但更重要的是，担心中国经济健康发展其最大的客户，都Euozone /英国地区和美国？ 这是中国财政部副部长祝光耀说，当前全球经济危机：“当前全球经济危机可能会在某种程度上更加严重，比2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭后的挑战”
    中国的政治领导层显然是担心欧元区债务危机对中国的溢出效应。 这导致了一些激进的经济决策有关匝。 已放弃了对通货膨胀和银行的不良贷款显著组合的关注。 再次集中在北京当局不惜一切代价的增长，涉及的货币政策和对中国的银行要求放松对不良贷款的准备金的最低限度拨款。
    然而，与经济相比，欧元区的国内消费驱动的比例要小得多，英国和美国，有只有这么多，政府可以做的，诱导其其最大的客户出口停滞或收缩的时间的增长。 说到底，中国不能无限期无人居住的城市建设作为创建“生长”在其国内生产总值的手段。
    尽 管所有有关在欧洲和北美的发达经济体的“脱钩”，在东亚地区的大型经济体的经济界人士的说法，中国是尽可能多的欧元区债务危机的影响的囚犯是美国 - 就像欧洲和中国人在美国的次级抵押贷款危机的囚犯。 在我们这个一体化的全球经济中，没有人是免疫的影响，在华盛顿和布鲁塞尔，至少北京所有的坏的经济和财政决策的遗产。
    谢尔顿Filger在Twitter： www.twitter.com / EconomicCrisis
    赫芬顿邮报博客：
    伯纳德 - 亨利列维
    伯纳德-亨利列维：在面对金融危机，重做古代史
    罗马和雅典，目前摇晃欧洲和世界的经济和金融风暴的震中。 您阅读的权利：罗马和雅典。 换句话说，欧洲的两个摇篮。
    斯科特山
    斯科特山：英国失去其道德？
    卡梅伦呼吁联盟成员“不负责任的”，但不提供丰富的逃税相当于谴责。
    肖恩凯
    肖恩凯：融入欧洲危险区
    爱尔兰人的优点的经济危机的下一阶段将如何影响国家的直接讨论。 如果爱尔兰救助背后的逻辑不再适用在预防传染病的系统性条款，那么爱尔兰和别人不应该吗？
    希瑟赫尔伯特
    希瑟赫尔伯特：共和党的外交政策辩论：角钱商店新保守主义
    周二共和党总统的外交政策辩论命中精度和细微之处的一些令人惊讶的瞥见了一些新的低点 - 但缺乏更广泛的意义上来说完全是一种战略或从候选人的视野。
     
     Roomani ＃ 希腊危机及＃ 欧元崩溃-在http://t.co/8EydxJCA 加拿大 ＃ ＃ 美国 ＃ 中国 ＃ 金融与凯泽最大的边缘 
     
     
     Roomani ＃ 欧元区债务危机-新闻分析http://t.co/VczmjGUK ＃ 美国 ＃ 美元 ＃ 中国 ＃ 财政 ＃ 欧元 ＃ 黄金 ＃ 经济 
     
     
     fermoreno谁拥有此 
     
     
     明格说，没有中国的欧元救市！ nyti.ms/tmLhH1＃ occupytiananmen 
     
     
     Ikduz欧元区危机：中国救援？ |“经济学家http://t.co/Y3RJvtMb 
     
     
     entre2nuages ​​＃ 中国的经济正在收缩＃ 工业部门的 http://t.co/a04ZJ3yj ＃危机 
     
     
     Scoobydoo007 ＃ BBC新闻- ＃ 默克尔敦促欧元区财政联盟，以解决债务危机的http://t.co/zKtBl5JE ＃ ＃ 萨科齐 欧洲央行 ＃ 中国 ＃ 彭博 ＃ EFSF ＃ 国际货币基金组织 ＃ wapo 
     
     
     riabuzz1在欧元危机，阿拉伯起义，印度和中国的超级强国，若隐若现的经济衰退和世界竞争.. AHH ... 
     
     
     HedgefundPLAY博士，＃ 中国巴 ​​克莱资本经济学家常健，“欧元危机是中国经济增长的关键。”（帮助欧盟中国与FED自救） 
     
     
     JohannesDreller面临＃ 中国的全球supplychains最大的风险是欧元区的持续＃ ＃ 危机 - http://t.co/akFcI393 |＃ 欧元 
     
     
     CoolCologne BBC新闻-中国：一个警告，并有机会http://t.co/CESnGIcf欧元危机对中国的影响。 
     
     
     alejandroaliaga RT @ euroefe ：＃ 中国考虑联合国“malentendido”DE europeos rescatar一个UE CON SUS饭店预订http://t.co/m0ic8ie3 ＃ UE ＃ 危机 欧元 
     
     
     在危机欧元的所作所为，中国购买的所作所为，看出来了，有一个goldrush购买的所作所为世界上最亮的新货币 
     
     
     jgmastrini吨DShahTR ：问）什么将有助于欧元的债务危机和美国unemp？ a）生长。 会发生什么现在中国/ EM是放缓？ http://t.co/UExgiWzJ 
     
     
     CapitalCityIFR吨DShahTR ：问）什么将有助于欧元的债务危机和美国unemp？ a）生长。 会发生什么现在中国/ EM是放缓？ http://t.co/soP8PADQ 
     


    我们的主持人屏幕这些意见，在发布前
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    希德哈思
    1秒前（下午07:54）
    这个评论是有待核准的，将不会显示，直到它被批准。中国的政治家 - S，哎呀，politburea ü老板都显示在当前中国的恒生指数向下摆动应变。 下降26％。 有些人甚至去尽可能谈论“中国春”。 承认，中国共产党人和他们的决策结构是不公开的辩论或异议。 他们一致 - LY发挥西部的游戏。 资本主义 ，全面节流。 兜售，以金属。
    弗鲁姆，弗鲁姆，咚，咚。 时间放慢，逐步。 换档会做到这一点。 这是什么医生（美国）下令。
    从趋势救世主，每个人都和自己的兄弟，我 N -法律，旁边的美国经济学家努里尔鲁比尼，广受赞誉，呼吁美国住房危机，是作为一个串行逆势解雇，当它来到他pessimisti - C中国的看法。 所以，是著名的对冲基金经理吉姆查诺斯。 律师和作者章家敦被讥讽为一个小他2006年出版“中国即将崩溃的鸡。”
    这只能说明，熊正在接管。 再见了，再见红牛在中国开店。
    ... ...我希德哈思西迪 - leaks.net
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    HUFFPOST超级USER
    查尔斯女王
    我是一个残疾人的南审核
    22小时前（下午09:10）
    中国是愿意倾巨大amountsint - O我们的失败的基础设 TURE计划，但代价是什么，我们也许可能是一个更好的quetion什么渔获？中国将最终绊脚石，是我们的未来question.P ossibly，EV eryone绊倒最终的天气，这是他们的过错或不它必然要发生eventualy。 现在我关心的是突然倾倒在我们infrastuct巨资wilingness ure.That有我一个有点疑惑不用say.I雅意味着他们可能是现在的财政确定，但它不会永远持续下去，它从来没有任何country.It “不是良好的商业atemptiing在几乎每一个国家的事务，现在试图传播，以便为他们TRING做薄themsleves
    23小时前（下午08:43）
    每个人的呼唤中国的厄运，但中国远不如由一家私人银行卡特尔控制的国家的形状。
    当然，他们有问题，他们连接到系统。 但是，每个人，包括整个欧盟是他们乞讨的钱。 让我们有一些perspectiv - E。
    宝莲Jaing
    艺术家，工人，母亲
    24小时前（19:59）
    嗯，considerin 克现有公司希望，中国的市场，我不明白，因此，在原则上，在Chineae不能迅速转到国内消费量 - N，如果他们必须。
    相反，我认为他们宁愿一个全球性的经济，因为它提供了为大家的和平与进步的最好方法可行。
    如果有一件事是关于资本主义，这是它打破了障碍。 欧洲的贸易商完全反对fuedal贵族关税和调查。 每个男爵等。 收费通过thorugh他们的土地出售的POTS！ 这是最优unproducti - VE和商品生产的块 ！
    毛泽东所做的第一件事情，在中国南方的根据地之一，是保护商人从当地fuedal贵族/ W的收费公路的官员 arlords，从而赢得他们的支持。
    3小时前（下午04:39）
    他们实在无法进入国内市场，因为绝大多数买不起他们的产品。 他们不能去国内的另一个原因是缺乏现代，交通运输 TION路线。 他们是domestical - LY，我们在20世纪初。 话虽这么说，即使他们明白群众需要有较高的工资，并鼓励工会存在，沃尔玛在中国的点，是工会组织。
    您的位置： 土地增值税首页 → 收藏 → 经济预测

    在中国获得一个承担赞成

    无节制的世界第二大经济体的乐观是让位给一个行将崩溃的恐惧。

    • Short-selling has become so pervasive among traders of Chinese equities that analysts at French banking firm Societe Generale deemed China the worlds most crowded short. Above, an electronic display of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong.
    卖空已经成为如此普遍，中国股市的交易商之间的... ...（亚伦潭，法新社/ Getty Images）
    2011年11月28日，|大卫皮尔森
    北京 - 不久前，那些预言，中国的经济下降为首的在一个人迹罕至的地方。
    美国经济学家努里尔鲁比尼，呼吁美国住房危机的广泛称赞，被驳回，因为串行逆势，当它来到他的悲观中国意见。 所以，是著名的对冲基金经理吉姆查诺斯。 律师和作者章家敦被讥讽为一个小他2006年出版“中国即将崩溃的鸡。”
    为记录
    “洛杉矶时报”周二，11月29日，2011年家庭版主要新闻A部分第4页新闻台1英寸; 38字的材料类型：更正
    中国经济：文章在11月​​28日第一个关于在中国即将发生的经济崩溃的恐惧说，章家敦的书“中国即将崩溃”是在2006年出版。 它是在2001年出版。
    突然，他们所有诺查丹玛斯。
    数据显示，在世界上第二大经济体的增长放缓的支持下，doomsayers采取的中心舞台。 肆无忌惮的乐观已让位给担心超过扩大在中国的经济奇迹的裂缝。
    悲观的情绪已经蔓延到金融市场投资者已退出运行，其。
    的恒生中国企业指数，追踪在香港上市的内地主要公司的股票表现，今年下降26％，使得它在亚洲表现最差的市场指数。
    “卖 空的做法 - 投注，一只股票会下跌的价值 - 已成为中国股市的贸易商之间如此普遍，法国银行公司兴业兴业的分析师认为中国是”世界上最拥挤的短。“例如，近三分之一的中国海外发展有限公司的股份被短 路，在八月和九月，标志着中国最大的房地产开发商的前景表示怀疑。
    “有越来越多的情绪，中国的故事没有意义，”张说，谁现在是邀请投资者会议仍然坚信一个迫在眉睫的崩溃。
    像张熊看到GDP增长放缓，公共债务上升和居高不下的通货膨胀，作为证据，中国的问题得到更大的。
    怀 疑运行，特别是深，当涉及到房地产，这代表对中国的经济总量的五分之一，有人估计。 在美国住房市场的繁荣模式极其相似，容易在近年来的融资引发了中国发展的狂潮，发送价格飞涨。 急于购房者安营扎寨，有机会购买到的发展计划，视线看不见的。 在上海典型的1000平方英尺的公寓价格为335,000美元，居民的平均年薪约45倍。
    现在中国的房地产泡沫扣除。 房屋价格扭转了连续第二个月十月囊中羞涩的开发变得绝望卸载家园。 35个主要城市的指数显示，29经历过的销售额从一年前下降;销量下降超过50％，其中6包括北京。
    中国政府说，这是所有计划的一部分。 在金融危机中保持经济的蓬勃发展的信贷水龙头松动后，它现在收紧贷款和打击炒家。
    但批评者说，损害已经造成。 落后于中国的崭新的高楼，高速公路和子弹头列车，熊看到鬼城，空的道路和多余的铁路线。 公共债务爆炸，提高对可能对中国经济的权衡的过载的恐惧。
    “很多增长是国家主导的大规模投资，”说，美国西北大学的政治学家和中国的地方政府债务坚定地承担阵营专家维克托施。 “中国现在是一个庞然大物。 如果它麻烦，每个人都在麻烦“
    面对越来越多的客户担心中国的发展前景，王涛，一个以香港为基地的金融服务巨头瑞银集团最近公布的一份研究报告，旨在安抚投资者担心，经济学家。 ，“她写道：”我们不得不反驳为什么中国即将崩溃或崩溃每天不同的参数。
    但几乎没有人纠纷压力下，中国目前的经济模式。
    其政府支持的消费热潮是不可持续的。 而中国是感觉一个在欧洲和美国，其出口的两个最大的客户的经济放缓的影响。 从长远来看，其作为世界上低成本的工厂车间的日子更便宜的竞争对手和劳动力萎缩的威胁。
    全球经济将受益，如果中国能够重新平衡其经济，因此，它的1.3亿公民开始花费更多的。 但也不能因为中国有其经济结构有利于对消费者的大企业。
    北京并保持其货币，人民币，人为弱。 ，使得中国商品便宜，有利于出口商。 但在家薄弱元燃料通胀，使进口商品价格昂贵。 当局还保持低利率，使国有企业获得廉价的贷款。 但是，这意味着储户赚取微不足道的回报。
    北京大学经济学家迈克尔佩蒂斯说，这一切都增加了消费者的口袋，以更少的钱。
    “消费的镇压就是为什么我从来没有买过公牛队”的故事，“佩蒂斯说。 “中国要经过一个重要的增长来源将有非常大的影响的重组。”
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    显然显示拍摄的视频图像Kadafi活着，然后死

    商人乔试图保持古怪的氛围，因为它扩展迅速

    占领华尔街不同的目标驱动的抗议者

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China leader warns about unrest due to economy
(AP) – 16 hours ago
BEIJING (AP) — The Chinese leadership's law-and-order czar is warning that China is ill-prepared for social unrest generated by changes in the economy, in the latest sign that the government is worried about the consequences of flagging growth.
The government needs better methods for dealing with "the negative effects" of the economy, Politburo member Zhou Yongkang said in remarks to provincial officials Friday that were published Saturday by the official Xinhua News Agency. Zhou called for innovative approaches to social management — a euphemism for a clutch of policies as diverse as stepped-up policing and unemployment insurance meant to dampen unrest.
"Especially when facing the negative effects of the market economy, we still have not formed a complete mechanism for social management," Zhou said. How to do so, he said, "is the great and urgent task before us."
Zhou's remarks underscore growing government uneasiness about an economic slowdown and the social unrest it might bring. In the past week, a much-watched index showed manufacturing contracting sharply, and the government lowered controls on bank reserves to encourage more lending. Meanwhile, strikes and other job actions have ticked up recently as factories retrench to confront higher labor costs and reduced demand for exports from Europe.
Zhou urged provincial officials to eliminate wasteful spending that has contributed to the mass protests, riots and other unrest that have proliferated in recent years.
In another instance of frayed tensions, Xinhua reported that hundreds of people overturned four police and government cars Friday in the central city of Xi'an after a truck hit and killed a girl and police did not arrive at the scene for two hours.


EDITION: U.S.

Sheldon Filger

Founder, GlobalEconomicCrisis.com
GET UPDATES FROM Sheldon Filger

China's Economy Is Contracting in the Industrial Sector

Posted: 12/ 2/11 12:39 PM ET
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The figures for China's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for November registered a mere 49 points, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. This figure represents a contraction in the crucial Chinese manufacturing sector. It has been due to its role as factory to the world that China's GDP has been propelled to the second largest in the world. The latest PMI has been amplified by a similar index compiled by HSBC, which is also reporting a contraction in the industrial sector. This dismal news on the supposedly rapidly growing Chinese economy is being attributed to a decrease in exports to the Eurozone countries, now mired in an ever-worsening sovereign debt crisis. The data on China's PMI is the worst since February 2009, at the tail-end of the free fall contraction in the global economy after the onset of the global economic crisis in the fall of 2008.
How worried should one be about the industrial contraction in China? Many observers have already pointed out that China's rapid growth at a time of economic decline and stagnation among advanced economies was in large part artificially induced by massive government spending, in particular on uninhabited apartment complexes and unoccupied shopping malls. But more importantly, how worried is China about the economic health of its largest customers, in both the Euozone/UK region and the United States? This is what Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said about the current global economic crisis: "The current global crisis may be in some way more severe and challenging than that of 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
The Chinese political leadership is clearly worried about the spillover effects of the Eurozone debt crisis on China. This has led to some radical about-turns in economic policymaking. Concerns about inflation and banks with a significant portfolio of bad loans have been discarded. The authorities in Beijing are again focused on growth at all costs, involving the loosening of monetary policies and requirements on Chinese banks for minimal provision for reserves against bad loans.
However, with a much smaller proportion of its economy driven by domestic consumption compared to the Eurozone, U.K. and U.S., there is only so much the government can do to induce growth at a time of stagnation or contraction of its exports to its largest customers. In the final analysis, China cannot go on indefinitely building uninhabited cities as a means of creating "growth" in its GDP.
Despite all the talk in economic circles about the large economies in East Asia being "decoupled" from the advanced economies in Europe and North America, China is as much a prisoner of the impact of the Eurozone debt crisis as is America -- just as Europe and China were prisoners of the subprime mortgage meltdown in the United States. In our integrated global economy, no one is immune to the effects of a legacy of bad economic and fiscal policymaking in Washington and Brussels, least of all Beijing.





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Sid Harth

1 second ago( 7:54 PM)
This comment is pending approval and won't be displayed until it is approved.Chinese politician­s, Oops, politburea­u bosses are showing strain in the current downward swing of China's Hang Seng index. 26% down. Some even go as far as talking about Chinese Spring. Admitted, Chinese are communists and their decision making structure is not open to debate or dissent. They have consistent­ly played the western game. Capitalism­, full throttled. peddle to the metal.
Vroom, Vroom, Boom, Boom. Time to slow down, gradually. Changing gears would do it. That is exactly what doctor (American) ordered.
Judging from the trending messiahs, everybody and their brothers-i­n-law, beside U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, widely praised for calling the U.S. housing meltdown, was dismissed as a serial contrarian when it came to his pessimisti­c China views. So was well-known hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Lawyer and author Gordon Chang was derided as a Chicken Little for his 2006 book "The Coming Collapse of China."
It only shows that bears are taking over. Bye, bye Bull (in the China shop).
...and I am Sid Harth@sidi­leaks.net






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Charles Queen
I am a disabled nam vet
22 hours ago( 9:10 PM)
China is willing to dump huge amountsint­o our failing infrastruc­ture program but at what cost to us or perhaps a better quetion might be whats the catch?Will china end up stumbling is our next question.P­ossibly,ev­eryone stumbles eventually wether it's their fault or not it's bound to happen eventualy.­Right now my concern is their sudden wilingness to dump huge amounts of moeny on our infrastuct­ure.That one has me a bit puzzled needless to say.I mean ya they may be financialy ok for now but it won't last forever,it never does to any country.It­'s not good buisness for one to attempt to spread themsleves so thin as their tring to do by atemptiing to get involved in just about every country's affairs right now
23 hours ago( 8:43 PM)
Everyone's calling the China doom, but China is in far better shape than nations controlled by a private bank cartel.
Sure, they have problems, they're wired into the system. But, everyone, including the entire EU is begging them for money. Let's have some perspectiv­e.

24 hours ago( 7:59 PM)
Eh, considerin­g that existing companies want that Chinese market, I fail to understand why, in principle, the Chineae cannot quickly go to domestic consumptio­n if they must.
Rather, I think they would prefer a global economy, because it offers the best possiblity for peace and progress for everyone.
If there is ONE thing good about capitalism it is that it breaks down barriers. The traders of Europe were totally opposed to fuedal nobility tariffs and polls. Every Baron et al. required a toll to pass thorugh their lands to sell POTS! This was HIGHLY unproducti­ve and a block to commodity production­!
One of the first things Mao Zedong did in the base areas in the South of China was to protect traders from the toll road officials of the local fuedal nobility/w­arlords, thus winning their support.
3 hours ago( 4:39 PM)
They really can't go to a domestic market because the vast majority can't afford to buy the products they make. Another reason they can't go domestic is the lack of modern transporta­tion routes. They are domestical­ly where we were in the early 20 th century. That being said even they understand the masses need to have higher wages and have encouraged unions to exist to the point of Walmart in China is unionized.


Being a bear on China gains favor

Unbridled optimism about the world's No. 2 economy is giving way to fears of an impending collapse.

  • Short-selling has become so pervasive among traders of Chinese equities that analysts at French banking firm Societe Generale deemed China the worlds most crowded short. Above, an electronic display of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong.
Short-selling has become so pervasive among traders of Chinese equities… (Aaron Tam, AFP / Getty Images)
November 28, 2011|David Pierson
BEIJING — Not long ago, those who predicted that China's economy was headed for a fall were in a lonely place.
U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, widely praised for calling the U.S. housing meltdown, was dismissed as a serial contrarian when it came to his pessimistic China views. So was well-known hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Lawyer and author Gordon Chang was derided as a Chicken Little for his 2006 book "The Coming Collapse of China."
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Tuesday, November 29, 2011 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 4 News Desk 1 inches; 38 words Type of Material: Correction
China's economy: An article in the Nov. 28 Section A about fears of an impending economic collapse in China said that Gordon Chang's book "The Coming Collapse of China" was published in 2006. It was published in 2001.
Suddenly they're all Nostradamus.
Backed by data showing a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, doomsayers have taken center stage. Unbridled optimism has given way to fears over widening cracks in the Chinese economic miracle.
The gloomy sentiment has spilled into financial markets, whose investors have been running for the exits.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises index, which tracks the stock performance of major mainland companies listed in Hong Kong, is down 26% this year , making it the worst-performing market gauge in Asia.
The practice of short-selling -- betting that a stock will fall in value -- has become so pervasive among traders of Chinese equities that analysts at French banking firm Societe Generale deemed China the "world's most crowded short." For instance, nearly a third of the shares of China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. were shorted in August and September, signaling doubts about the prospects of China's largest property developer.
"There's growing sentiment that the Chinese story doesn't make sense," said Chang, who is now invited to investor conferences and remains convinced of a looming crash.
Bears like Chang see slowing GDP growth, rising public debt and stubbornly high inflation as evidence China's problems are about to get bigger.
Skepticism runs especially deep when it comes to real estate, which represents about a fifth of China's economic output, by some estimates. In a pattern eerily similar to the U.S. housing boom, easy financing in recent years unleashed a Chinese development frenzy that sent prices soaring. Eager home buyers camped out for the chance to buy into planned developments, sight unseen. The typical 1,000-square-foot apartment in Shanghai costs $335,000, about 45 times the average resident's annual salary.
Now China's housing bubble is deflating. Home prices reversed in October for the second consecutive month as cash-strapped developers became desperate to unload homes. An index of 35 major cities showed 29 had experienced a decline in sales from a year ago; sales plunged more than 50% in six of them, including Beijing.
The Chinese government says it's all part of the plan. After loosening the credit spigot during the financial crisis to keep the economy humming, it's now tightening lending and clamping down on speculators.
But critics said the damage has been done. Behind China's gleaming new high-rises, freeways and bullet trains, the bears see ghost towns, empty roads and superfluous rail lines. Public debt has exploded, raising fears of an overload that could weigh on China's economy.
"A lot of that growth was just state-led investment on a massive scale," said Victor Shih, a political scientist at Northwestern University and expert on Chinese local government debt who is firmly in the bear camp. "China is a behemoth now. If it gets in trouble, everyone gets in trouble."
Faced with a growing number of clients worried about China's prospects, Tao Wang, a Hong Kong-based economist at financial services giant UBS, recently released a research note aimed at calming investors' fears. "We have had to refute different arguments about why China is about to collapse or implode every day," she wrote.
But hardly anyone disputes that China's current economic model is under pressure.
Its government-backed spending binge isn't sustainable. And China is feeling the effects of a slowdown in Europe and the U.S., the two largest customers for its exports. Longer term, its days as the world's low-cost factory floor are threatened by cheaper competitors and a shrinking labor force.
The global economy would benefit if China could rebalance its economy so that its 1.3 billion citizens started spending more. But they can't because China has structured its economy to favor big businesses over consumers.
Beijing does this by keeping its currency, the yuan, artificially weak. That benefits exporters by making Chinese goods cheap. But a weak yuan fuels inflation at home and makes imported goods expensive. Authorities also keep interest rates low so that state-owned companies get cheap loans. But that means depositors earn puny returns.
It all adds up to less money in the pockets of consumers, said Peking University economist Michael Pettis.
"The repression of consumption is why I never bought the bulls' story," Pettis said. "China has to go through an important restructuring of sources of growth that will have very big implications."
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