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If 2011 Was a Turbulent Year for Obama’s Foreign Policy, 2012 Looks Set to Be Worse
The foreign policy crisis horizon shows little respect for the calendar New Year: The Obama Administration ought to have a pretty good idea of the crises that await it in different global hotspots as it braces for election year, 2012. But a recurring theme in the current menu of challenges, whether in the Middle East, north or south Asia, Africa or Europe, is the declining leverage available to Washington to shape favorable outcomes.
President Obama's reelection prospects may be in part shaped by events from America's shores, and yet in most cases the outcome of those events will be determined by others. If 2011 seemed unusually turbulent, 2012 — well, best fasten that seatbelt.
Herewith, a survey of the top ten global crisis issues facing the U.S. in the new year.
President Obama's reelection prospects may be in part shaped by events from America's shores, and yet in most cases the outcome of those events will be determined by others. If 2011 seemed unusually turbulent, 2012 — well, best fasten that seatbelt.
Herewith, a survey of the top ten global crisis issues facing the U.S. in the new year.
Iraq a Model? Be Careful of What You Wish For
Azhar Shallal / AFP / Getty Images
An Iraqi security force officer stands guard over one of three suspects (in orange jumpsuit) accused of taking part in the killing of Shiite Muslim pilgrims, on December 26, 2011, close to the western city of Ramadi, in the Sunni Muslim dominated province of Anbar.
The Republican critics who insist that President Barack Obama threw Iraq to the wolves forget the inconvenient fact that Iraq’s democratically elected government refused to give them a legal basis to remain in the country. Still, having invested so much American blood and treasure in Iraq, the U.S. public may be inclined to see Washington as bearing some responsibility for the outcome there. (And, perhaps more importantly, Washington’s traditional allies in the region see the U.S. as responsible for the outcome of an invasion they counseled against.) So, while he might have opposed the war to begin with, events in Iraq in the New Year could nonetheless land at Obama’s door. And the President’s valedictory address on the war that spoke of a “successful, democratic Iraq becoming a model for the entire region” is sounding distinctly Pollyannaish: Iraq is showing signs of turning into an increasingly bloody mess in the New Year.
The wave of terror attacks against mostly Shi’ite civilians that killed 73 people last week and continued this week are a graphic illustration of the consequences of the sectarian schism that has widened in recent weeks in Iraqi politics. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appears to be hardening that divide by systematically targeting leading Sunni political rivals to his Shi’ite dominated government, who are backing Kurdish-style autonomy for three predominantly Sunni provinces northwest of Baghdad, and who are warning that Maliki’s attacks risk rekindling the Sunni insurgency that bedeviled the U.S. occupation.
Al-Qaeda was marginalized in Iraq when most of that insurgency aligned with the U.S. in the “Awakening” movement, but those Sunnis who fought alongside the Americans (and on their payroll) against the jihadists were never reconciled with the Shi’ite dominated Maliki government. The alienation of the Sunnis from the new political order therefore creates a more permissive environment for al-Qaeda types to operate, and the collapse of the political contract in Baghdad that ties the major ethnic and sectarian factions to the political process therefore threatens major instability in the coming year.
Maliki, both by measures of votes in parliament and control of men under arms, is stronger than any other faction leader in Iraq right now, but he’s not strong enough to rule Iraq on his own. Indeed, he has the job of prime minister only because Iran — mindful of the importance of keeping a friendly government in Baghdad — intervened to convince rival Shi’ite leaders, most important among them being Moqtada al-Sadr, to back another Maliki term.
But other neighbors, particularly those at odds with Iran such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have other ideas. Both backed the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya bloc that challenged Maliki, and Saudi Arabia has been engaged in proxy conflicts with Iran across the region. A breakdown in Iraq’s governance and a renewal of sectarian violence — exacerbated by the increasingly sectarian civil war in neighboring Syria — could draw in all of Iraq’s neighbors and presage its breakup.
Avoiding a politically damaging catastrophe in Iraq may well depend on the willingness of some of its neighbors, particularly Iran, to impose some discipline on the sectarian impulses of their allies in Baghdad. As with much else in the Middle East these days, that’s a eventuality that’s largely out of U.S. hands.
Next: Iran: Stumbling Into War in an Election Year?
Related Topics: Obama's Foreign Policy, World
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U.S. | December 26, 2011More Taxes, Please: We’re French
Europe may be agonizing amid the worst financial crisis since the Second World War, but that still isn’t forcing France to accept the logic of economic liberalism that dominates much of world. That largely “Anglo-Saxon” view has long criticized the cherished French welfare state as too expensive, untenable, uncompetitive, and increasingly indebted–and now sees it as virtually doomed by an inevitable starvation diet that reality has imposed. But as they are prone to do now and again, the French are begging to differ with the rest of the world—and are doing so by defending a social system that’s a deep source of national pride in ways many societies wouldn’t stand for.
Human rights | December 26, 2011In China, a Christmas Crackdown on Dissent
Christmas means different things around the world, but in China one of the things it’s come to stand for crackdown. In recent years Chinese courts have chosen the holiday season as the time to hand down the harshest sentences to political dissenters, possibly in the belief that their rulings will received the least attention abroad. On Dec. 26 a court in the southwestern city of Guiyang sentenced longtime dissident Chen Xi to 10 years in prison for “inciting subversion of state power,” Reuters reported.Chen was active in the 1989 protest movement, organizing a pro-democracy group in Guiyang and later serving 13 years in prison after the government crushed the Tiananmen demonstrations. Chen Xi, who is also known as Chen Youcai, was arrested on Nov. 29, a week before the Guizhou Human Rights Forum, a group to which he belonged, was declared illegal, according to Chinese Human Rights Defenders, an activist group.
Middle East | December 23, 2011Why the Damascus Bombing is Better News for Syria’s Regime Than for its Opposition
The twin suicide bombings that killed at least 30 people in Damascus on Friday are good news for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, and bad news for the opposition protest movement. That’s because the regime’s narrative of the 10-month crisis has been that Syria is facing not a citizens’ movement for democracy, but a sectarian, extremist terror campaign — a claim it uses to explain its own heavily militarized response that has resulted in the deaths of more than 5,000 Syrians, according to the U.N. The timing of the blasts, moreover, couldn’t have been better for the Assad regime, coming just a day after it had admitted, under pressure, a delegation of Arab League observers tasked with monitoring a peace agreement under which the regime had agreed to withdraw troops from its restive cities. That, and the regime’s rush to pin the attacks on al-Qaeda within minutes of breaking the news, may explain the knee-jerk response of many opposition activists who branded the event “mysterious”, and implied that it may have been staged by the regime for propaganda ends.
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SiDevilIamDamascus bombings, perhaps, bolsters their dynasty dictator, Oops, Baby-Doc, Bashat-al-Assad. However, it may be a lesson to American penchant for democracy, "American Style," all over the creation, Oops, barring, American funded and goodly supported other dictatorships, around the Middle East (little )world and African (big, little) world.show more
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