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Предупредительный выстрел для Путина
Краткое содержание: С его укоренившейся преимущества, Соединенные Кремля России партия должна быть безопасной на данный момент, - но если Владимир Путин не признает недовольства своей властью, он может скоро обнаружите, что сила является единственным способом сохранить свой режим.
Связанный
Снимки, 9 декабря 2011
Вслед за оспаривается парламентских воскресенье выборов, спецслужбы России сделали очевидной и неуклюжие усилия, чтобы закрыть независимых источников новостей. Но контроль информации в Интернете окажется невозможным, и продолжали попытки сделать это будет только обратный эффект.
Эссе, январь / февраль 2008
В этой статье 2008, Майкл Макфол, вот будет назначен послом США в России, и Кэтрин Стонер-Вайс описать повреждения авторитаризмом Владимира Путина сделал для России политической и экономической систем.
Эссе, март / апрель 2000
Популярный новый президент России лучше расположить, чем его предшественник был принять необходимые реформы. Но все усилия Владимира Путина сойдет на нет, если он не может делать то, что Борис Ельцин никогда не делал: обуздать плутократов России. Эти безжалостные олигархи обирали России от шокирующие суммы, захватив контроль над своей нефтяной отрасли - одна из крупнейших в мире - в процессе. Через выплаты и запугивания, они намекали себя в электоральной политике и практически иммунизированных себя от судебного преследования. Ни одна из проблем России - ни своей ослабленной экономике, ни его изможденного инфраструктуры, ни его свистящее дыхание демократии - будет решен в то время как бароны-разбойники сохранить свою власть. Америка не может позволить себе оставаться в стороне больше.
A Warning Shot For Putin
Parliamentary Elections and the Reawakening of Russian Politics
December 8, 2011
Snapshot
In the wake of Sunday's contested parliamentary elections, the Russian security services have made obvious and clumsy efforts to shut down independent news sources. But controlling information online will prove impossible, and continued attempts to do so will only backfire.
(World Economic Forum / flickr)
Russia's parliamentary election last Sunday saw Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's party, United Russia, receive slightly less than 50 percent of the popular vote. In most countries, this would be viewed as a stunning victory. Instead, it is being interpreted by the Russian and Western press as a rebuke by a restive Russian public to Putin and his policies.
Although the electoral results are undoubtedly a signal to Putin and his political protégé, President Dmitry Medvedev, that Russian voters will not blindly follow wherever the Kremlin leads, in reality they do not portend seismographic shifts in the Russian political landscape.
The opposition parties that gained seats are no real opposition, at all. Any true opposition forces were weeded out far in advance of Sunday's elections.
Some reports, including that of The New York Times earlier this week, have argued that with only 238 seats in the 450-seat Duma, as opposed to the 315 parliamentary seats it previously held, United Russia will now be unable to change the Russian constitution unilaterally. True enough -- but what they fail to mention is that the Kremlin has little need to make any significant constitutional changes in the foreseeable future. The constitution is already stacked in favor of the presidency, and even with a reduced number of seats in parliament for United Russia, the Duma will still be compliant, since no new parties have gained seats.The Duma is already relatively powerless compared to what Russia watchers call the "super" presidency enshrined in the 1993 constitution that was hastily written by Putin's predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Russia's first elected president. Between the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and 1993, Yeltsin faced a recalcitrant parliament (then called the Congress of People's Deputies), whose members resisted his attempts to reform the country's troubled economy. The standoff reached its climax in the fall of 1993, when Yeltsin disbanded parliament. When Russian deputies trapped inside the parliament building broke out and attempted to take control of a national television station, Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire on the building, putting an end to the showdown.
The constitution that Yeltsin then forced through by popular referendum in December 1993 resolved the issue of legislative executive power in no uncertain terms. It allows the president to rule by decree in almost every area but the budget. At the same time, the president has the authority to disband the Duma and call new elections should parliament refuse three times to accept the president's choice of prime minister, and the executive branch has full control of the country's security and defense ministries.
The ruling tandem of Putin and Medvedev has made further constitutional changes to strengthen the executive's hand. In the constitution's original version, the president could serve a maximum of two consecutive four-year terms. In his first year as president, Medvedev changed the constitution, then approved by the United Russia-dominated Duma and the compliant Federation Council (Russia's appointed upper house of parliament), to allow for two consecutive six-year terms, paving the way for Putin to serve for a total of 12 years when he retakes the presidency (as he intends to do in the upcoming March 2012 presidential elections).
What is more, even if Putin and his allies decided they needed to change the constitution (and this is doubtful), they would still have little difficulty doing so. Sunday's election results, however dispiriting for United Russia, will not bring about any significant change to the composition of the Duma. The Communist Party (which finished second with just under 20 percent of the vote, translating into 92 seats in the Duma), the Just Russia party (13 percent and 62 seats), and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (11.7 percent and about 56 seats), are exactly the same parties that have sat in the pliant Russian Duma of the past four years.
Of the three, the Communist Party has taken the most oppositional positions toward United Russia -- at least relatively speaking -- but it has seldom voted against United Russia on legislation that actually mattered. It provided modest opposition on cuts to subsidized transportation fares for pensioners, for example, but strongly supported the invasion of Georgia in 2008.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democratic Party, which was created by the Kremlin in the 1990s, has not provided any true opposition in the last ten years. Its outspoken and flamboyant leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, is more concerned with attracting attention and outrage for his appearances on television than in having any substantive debate with Putin and those close to him.
Finally, although Just Russia did manage to increase its representation in the Duma over its 2007 standing, it, too, is a Kremlin construct. (The party was originally conceived as a social democratic alternative to United Russia, but one that would still vote with the ruling party on big issues.) Historically, it provided little opposition to United Russia and is unlikely to do so now.
In effect, the opposition parties that gained seats are no real opposition at all. Any true opposition forces were weeded out far in advance of Sunday's elections. Only seven political parties met the state's strict registration requirements; the courts simply did not permit other parties that represent more independent liberal alternatives to register. The leadership of some of these groups -- in particular, Boris Nemtsov of Solidarity -- are now leading street protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg. They have little nationwide support, however, and given the degree of state control over the media, their brave efforts this week will not bring about a popular revolution.
In the end, the biggest loser on Sunday was neither United Russia nor Putin, but rather his fall guy, Medvedev. At United Russia's party congress on September 24, Medvedev nominated Putin to take over again as president. Accepting the nomination in a well-choreographed exchange, Putin then nominated Medvedev to become his prime minister should he win the presidency next March. This "castling" of positions is evidently the straw that broke the back of many Russians' tolerance for Putin's growing autocracy. Medvedev, now the party's nominee for prime minister, was the only name that appeared on the United Russia electoral list in the Duma elections. The Kremlin's apparent logic was that Medvedev's personal popularity would carry the party to easy victory.
Given the effects within Russia of the global economic downturn, a decline in the fortunes of the ruling party was inevitable, at least relative to United Russia's high in 2007, when it captured 62 percent of the vote. But few predicted that the party would receive less than 50 percent of the vote; as of late last week, reputable Russian polling agencies were predicting that it would receive at least 53 to 55 percent. The fact that United Russia supporters resorted to ballot stuffing and other falsifications to boost their votes and still fell below 50 percent will likely affect Medvedev's political prospects the most, given that he headed the party's ticket. In a foreshadowing of exactly such a scenario, Putin late last week amended his offer of the office of prime minister to Medvedev, suggesting the post might be contingent on United Russia's performance in the Duma elections. Medvedev is now particularly vulnerable.
Despite the clear falsification of electoral results, international expressions of displeasure with the electoral process, public demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg calling for "Russia without Putin," the new Duma will most likely be seated by the end of the month. Putin's largely successful efforts to control the country's media and curb freedom of expression and assembly eviscerated any meaningful opposition years ago. Further, Putin remains personally popular, still polling at slightly below 70 percent approval. And if the need for muscle arises, Putin has already shown willingness to use the security forces to put down any opposition activity; he is also adept at mobilizing the country's state-controlled media and government-created youth groups to counter protests.
Still, although there will be no immediate seismic shift in the balance of power in Russia today, the masses have fired a warning shot at Putin's presidential bid. Protests against the election may be relatively small and are unlikely to lead to a Ukrainian-style popular revolt, but should Putin and Medvedev not appear to listen to voters and be ready to make a few concessions, they may have to resort to the sporadic use of force to keep the regime afloat.
Home › Discussions › A Warning Shot For PutinUser Comments on
A Warning Shot For Putin
Summary:With its entrenched advantages, the Kremlin's United Russia party should be safe for now -- but if Vladimir Putin doesn't acknowledge the widespread dissatisfaction with his rule, he may soon find that force is the only way to preserve his regime.
Comments
Absolute (Putinesque) Politics new
Submitted by Sid H. (May. 4, 2011) on December 16, 2011 - 1:28am.
My dear Kathryn Stoner-Weiss,
I am Sid Harth.
Does that mean you dislike politics, Oops, Russian Vodka Absolut, absolutely? Oops, Smirnoff? Oops, Putinesque Russian politics? Oops, democracy in general? Oops, Autocracy in particular? Oops, The world in general? Oops, Politics in particular?
Been there and done that kind of thingy.
Imperialist America, Oops, Jingoist America,. Satan of the West. Fumbling America. Tumbling America towards anarchy, Oops, lethargy. Visionary America (sic). Which America do you believe in?
Please, pretty please don't spoil my Absolut guess.
Imperialist America. Hot to trott America. America that has reached her Nadir. America in search for the legendary (big foot) Yeti trying to set a permanent footprint in, of all the places, Pacific Ocean, America.
Oops, plum forgot, Innovative America.
Sister woman. Give it a rest. Absolut(ly). People who live in glass houses ought not be setting example to others trying to set up their glass houses on very earthquake prone region, politically speaking.
CIA-Oh! Oops, Dasvidaniya.
May Allah be praised, (PBUH).
...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org
I am Sid Harth.
Does that mean you dislike politics, Oops, Russian Vodka Absolut, absolutely? Oops, Smirnoff? Oops, Putinesque Russian politics? Oops, democracy in general? Oops, Autocracy in particular? Oops, The world in general? Oops, Politics in particular?
Been there and done that kind of thingy.
Imperialist America, Oops, Jingoist America,. Satan of the West. Fumbling America. Tumbling America towards anarchy, Oops, lethargy. Visionary America (sic). Which America do you believe in?
Please, pretty please don't spoil my Absolut guess.
Imperialist America. Hot to trott America. America that has reached her Nadir. America in search for the legendary (big foot) Yeti trying to set a permanent footprint in, of all the places, Pacific Ocean, America.
Oops, plum forgot, Innovative America.
Sister woman. Give it a rest. Absolut(ly). People who live in glass houses ought not be setting example to others trying to set up their glass houses on very earthquake prone region, politically speaking.
CIA-Oh! Oops, Dasvidaniya.
May Allah be praised, (PBUH).
...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org
Related
Snapshot, December 9, 2011
In the wake of Sunday's contested parliamentary elections, the Russian security services have made obvious and clumsy efforts to shut down independent news sources. But controlling information online will prove impossible, and continued attempts to do so will only backfire.
Essay, Jan/Feb 2008
In this 2008 article, Michael McFaul, about to be nominated as U.S. Ambassador to Russia, and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss describe the damage Vladimir Putin's authoritarianism has done to Russia's political and economic systems.
Essay, Mar/Apr 2000
Russia's popular new president is better positioned than his predecessor was to enact needed reforms. But all of Vladimir Putin's efforts will come to nought unless he can do what Boris Yeltsin never did: rein in Russia's plutocrats. These ruthless oligarchs have fleeced Russia of staggering sums, seizing control of its oil industry -- one of the world's largest -- in the process. Through payoffs and intimidation, they have insinuated themselves into electoral politics and virtually immunized themselves from prosecution. None of Russia's problems -- neither its crippled economy, nor its emaciated infrastructure, nor its wheezing democracy -- will be solved while the robber barons retain their power. America cannot afford to sit on the sidelines any longer.
Комментарии
Абсолют (Putinesque) Политика нового
Я Сид Харт.
Означает ли это, вам не нравится политика, К сожалению, Россия Absolut Vodka, совсем? К сожалению, Smirnoff? К сожалению, Россия Putinesque политике? К сожалению, демократия в целом? К сожалению, самодержавие, в частности? К сожалению, мир в целом? К сожалению, политика, в частности?
Был там и сделал такой Thingy.
Империалистическая Америка, Ой, ура-патриотической Америке. Сатана Запада. Ощупь Америке. Tumbling Америку к анархии, Oops, вялость. Visionary Америки (sic!). Какой Америке вы верите?
Пожалуйста, довольно пожалуйста, не испортит мой Абсолют догадываться.
Империалистическая Америка. Горячий к Тротт Америке. Америка, которая достигла своего Надир. Америка в поисках легендарного (большая нога) Йети пытается установить постоянное присутствие в, из всех мест, Тихий океан, Америка.
К сожалению, сливы забыл, Инновационный Америке.
Сестра женщины. Дайте ему отдохнуть. Абсолют (LY). Люди, живущие в стеклянных домах, не должно быть установление примером для других пытаются создать свои дома стекло на очень землетрясения склонны региона, говоря политическим языком.
ЦРУ-Oh! К сожалению, Dasvidaniya.
Май Слава Аллаху, (мир ему).
... И я Сид Harth@arabuhuru.org